Chen Jingquan: Risk Aversion Is Not Optimistic.

　　 market Following the trend of Wednesday, the stock market fell slightly, while the yield of the bond market also declined further, and the mood of the market deteriorated. No doubt yesterday's poor GDP and CPI data in the euro area led to the start of this reason. In the many data released yesterday, Germany was alone, and other major European economies showed varying degrees of GDP decline. At the same time, the CPI data in April was less than half of the expected 2%, and only 0.7% of the market was again prepared for the EU's action. The former author explained the market bets, but the surge of risk aversion in the short term led to the current bond market more favored by the market. Yesterday's data also triggered unrest in the United States. A strong situation appeared in the employment data. The industrial output and construction index remained unexpanded. In the short term, the market's hesitation was positive. However, local residents' income increased gradually, and the signs of the real estate market bottoming up would become more obvious. In the foreign exchange market, the rebound of European system and the strength of hedging currencies seem contradictory, but in fact, the weakness of the dollar yesterday. Although the US data are good, their short-term choices still maintain their previous mood, and they all choose other currencies. Although the market has been expecting the US dollar to rise, the real interest rate has remained at a low level, which has finally made the market abandon the recent US dollar.

　　 Technically speaking

　　 Euro versus US dollar

Yesterday, the euro zone data further down to 1.3640 level, this key downward drag finally supported the euro's diving trend. The risk of sentiment driven by the US data in the late stage is a rebound trend in the European system. Although the cross line has been crossed by the daily line, the strength of the uplink is obviously lacking. The 1.3750-1.3770 resistance interval is the key to the intra day callback test. If there is any resistance in this area, then the euro will continue to maintain a downward trend in the short term, or at least above 1.3640. Degree.

　　 gold

Yesterday, gold remained sensitive to the response to us data. Although the first few trading days were gradually weakening, the impact of yesterday's employment data apparently triggered a tremor in gold. Short line down once reached the 1290 position, although it has uplink after stabilization, but the uplink resistance of 1303 is still obvious. The dual uplink resistance, which is composed of 1298 and 1303 days, will limit the uplink of gold. If there is no breakthrough in the late market, the downward trend of gold will be a big probability event, and the possibility of a return to 1286 is probably not small. The intensity of the concussion on the Japanese line is still maintained, but the situation of narrowing is even more obvious. On Friday, it is still not a reasonable time to consider the latter.