Chen Jingquan: Market Turmoil Intensified, Hedge Gradually Fade

Yesterday, the euro area Putin ordered Russian troops to withdraw troops from the Ukraine border, and the market reaction to this incident is more diluted than before. From the outbreak of the Crimea issue to more than two months, if the follow-up does not appear more intense, then the risk aversion caused by the Ukraine issue will eventually decline. Support for energy and precious metals market will also be significantly weakened. In addition, the ECB 20 countries also issued a joint statement, saying that there is no plan to sell large quantities of gold in 5 years. We can also regard this statement as the bottom line declaration of the Central Bank of Europe for gold.

　　 U.S.A There is no more data to be released, but Bernanke and several local Federal Reserve Chairman's speeches have provided an appropriate interpretation of the current market. Even though retired Bernanke still believes that QE is not a panacea, but it can effectively curb inflation. At the same time, the current stock market rise is that the recovery of the economy is not excessive money, of course, the low interest rate factors include. We can also see from the current economy that the increase in market expectations of the market has indeed led to changes in risk appetite.

　　 Technically speaking

　　 Euro Against US dollar

The euro failed to break through 1.3740 of short-term upward resistance yesterday after the early pullback, and the solid resistance at the top 1.3764 was even stronger. Yesterday referred to the importance of 1.3760, from the point of view, the upward trend of the upward trend of energy in the day is still accumulating, but once the collapse appears above, the kinetic energy of downlink test 1.3642 will appear again. What is different from yesterday is that the short line double uplink resistance formed by 1.3740-1.3760 has passed a test, and two tests have been completed in the early stage. If we do not break through today, the potential kinetic energy will be weakened to a certain extent. We must wait until the end of the interval test before entering the blank sheet.

　　 gold

The weakening of the Ukraine issue has been reflected in the upward trend of gold, and the next gold support factor in the market is the easing policy expected by the European Central Bank in addition to inflation. These two factors support the gold price in the medium and long term. Yesterday, the price of gold touched 1290 after the 1305 withdrawal, and there are still indications of short-term upward upward trend. However, it should be noted that once the downward drag of 1288 is broken down, the intensity of the downward trend of gold will increase. We continue to maintain more than 1306 single test attempts on the operation, and then run into a concussion and face the 1288 downward resistance test below.