"5. 19" Market Lost Market Bull Bull Battle Again

< p > May 19th night, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > SFC < /a > announced that IPO will issue about 100 in the second half of this year.

This figure has been reduced by nearly half of the estimated 200 in the industry, and the market has not risen since the boots landed. Yesterday, the A shares closed at the ground level, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.15%, and the gem index rose by 1.33% under the new shares.

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On the other side, with the passage of time, the two quarter is about to enter the final month. It seems that the 400 point theory of Guotai Junan has reached the end of the year. Will there be any drama in the market in June? A strategist told reporters, "it is even more difficult".

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< p > < strong > market cold to < /strong > /p >

In the evening of May 19th P, the securities and Futures Commission issued a news report that the CSRC held a meeting on the same day to study and implement the relevant work of the State Council on several suggestions on further promoting the healthy development of the capital market (hereinafter referred to as "opinion").

The meeting clearly stated: "from the end of June to the end of the year, we plan to issue about 100 new stocks, and publish them on a monthly basis."

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Less than P, the news was exciting because the 100 bottom line almost halved compared with 200 originally pessimistic in the industry.

Affected by this news, the Shanghai composite index opened at a high level, but it showed a trend of concussion. Finally, it closed at 2011.85 points, or only 0.15%, and the volume of the stock market shrank again. There were only 61 million 340 thousand hands in the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

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< p > the chief strategist of the southern fund "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> Yang Delong < /a > quickly interpreted this as a slightly positive news, so it would not have a big negative stimulus to the market.

In the face of the volume of Shanghai stock market, Yang Delong was not surprised. Even analysts said that the short-term trend is not optimistic, and the fall will continue.

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< p > "may recover at the end of the two quarter and the three quarter, but we expect little effort.

The reason is that the economy is down, liquidity is still in the bubble stage, and there is basically no expectation of systemic rise.

Yang Delong said.

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As far as industry is concerned, the above strategy analysts believe that real estate and banks, even manufacturing, will be in the recession in the last two months of the first quarter of the year, especially the asset load rate of manufacturing industry, which is equivalent to a powerful landmine in the face of not loose liquidity. P

Under the premise of economic downturn, the probability of the stock market going out of the unilateral market is almost zero, so the probability of big market in June is very small.

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< p > but this is just the tip of the iceberg.

The analysts said they did not think that the shrinkage of IPO would be good for the market.

"Although the financing scale of IPO has been reduced, it is actually only postponed, but it has not been fundamentally solved."

He thinks so.

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< p > now it has been revealed that compared with the number of enterprises queuing and the number of Listed Companies in 100 or so, it is not hard to come to the conclusion that the resources of IPO shares will be less and less. This is precisely the logic that led to a surge in the number of new shares yesterday, and the gem index is stronger than the main board market, but the analysts are still not optimistic about the growth of the gem.

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< p > < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > IPO > /a > to one side, refinancing, Shanghai Hong Kong and other businesses have also prevented the development of the market from liquidity, especially the Shanghai and Hong Kong which have been interpreted as positive.

"For Shanghai, Hongkong is the only option, but it is not the case for Hongkong."

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< p > < strong > the battle between ox and bear > /strong > /p >

In the two quarter of the two quarter, there were two kinds of people who could not sit still. One was investors, and the other was the institutions that had sung much at the beginning.

This has to mention Guotai Junan's theory of "400 points". Obviously, the two quarter has left much time for it.

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The number of shares in the P A stock market has triggered the corresponding research on the bull and bear cycles in the industry, but this theory has once again been destroyed in China, just like Buffett's value investment philosophy, and the foreign experience does not adapt to it, which shows that there is still a huge gap in the reform of the domestic capital market.

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"P >" now look at the "5. 19" market after quite a long period of time, the bull market cycle has a certain pattern, but it should be noted that the deep motivation of the former bull bear pformation is the pition from light asset industry to heavy asset industry, so the cycle is short.

For example, "5. 19" is the rise of the industry represented by online games, which belongs to the industry category of light assets.

The bull market in ~2007 2005 is due to the fact that light assets have shifted to heavy assets, and this cycle is also very short.

But at present, our pformation goal is to shift from heavy assets to light assets. Then how do we deal with heavy assets or heavy industry? This shows that this pformation is a long cycle, so we can not use the original experience to apply the current situation, so as to draw a conclusion that the bull market is coming.

The analysts said.

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