The Trade Surplus Will Not Continue To Narrow.

In the first 4 months of this year, China's trade surplus narrowed by 40% compared with the same period last year. Analysts said that the narrowing of the trade surplus reflected that China's export environment was not optimistic, but the surplus would not be too long.

According to the data released recently by the General Administration of customs, the total value of China's imports and exports was 8 trillion and 100 billion yuan in the first 4 months of this year, down 3.1% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 4 trillion and 160 billion yuan, down 4.8%; imports 3 trillion and 940 billion yuan, down 1.2%; trade surplus 215 billion 400 million yuan, 42.9% reduction.

In dollar terms, the total value of China's imports and exports in the first 4 months was 1 trillion and 324 billion 320 million US dollars, down 0.5%. Among them, exports amounted to 679 billion 780 million US dollars, down by 2.3%; imports of US $644 billion 540 million, an increase of 1.4%; trade surplus of US $35 billion 240 million, a decrease of 41.4%.

Analysts said that the narrowing of the trade surplus reflected that China's export environment was not optimistic, but the surplus would not continue.

The foreign trade situation is still grim.

China's foreign trade situation report (spring 2014) released by the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that in 2014, the trend of world economic recovery tended to improve. China's economy started smoothly, and China's foreign trade had the conditions to achieve steady growth. However, the difficulties and challenges faced by it still remained.

Bai Guangyu, an Institute of foreign trade research of the Ministry of Commerce, told the International Business Daily reporter in an interview that from the country's data, the mainland's trade surplus with Hongkong dropped by 31.37%, which was the main reason for the sharp drop in the surplus. "The impact of trade arbitrage on mainland China's exports to Hongkong in the same period last year is too high. The data this year are squeezing water out." Bai Guangyu said. "Compared to the larger export data, the import data can reflect the real situation better, generally reflecting an abnormal surplus." Li Jian, director of the Foreign Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the international business daily.

In the first 4 months of this year, the deficit in China's general trade reached 217 billion 960 million yuan, an increase of 45.5% over the same period last year, and a surplus of 670 billion 780 million yuan in processing trade, a decrease of 4.8%. "The decline in trade surplus is more caused by the expansion of the general trade deficit, which reflects the weakness of international demand." Bai Guangyu analyzed.

Wang Wei, a researcher at the China Institute of international studies, adds that with the development of foreign trade in Indonesia and Mexico, these countries are becoming more and more similar to China in the structure of export commodities, and competition in the international market is also one of the reasons for the decline in China's exports.

　 Narrowing of surplus will not continue.

The industry believes that the narrowing of China's trade surplus will not continue. Bai Guangyu pointed out that, from the short-term trend, the impact of the high trade base last year is gradually weakening, and the trade data will return to normal. In addition, the J curve effect of RMB depreciation has gradually subsided this year, and exports will be supported. The sustained recovery of developed economies will also stimulate China's exports. In general, the narrowing of the surplus will not be a trend.

From the geographical point of view, the proportion of imports and exports of 7 provinces and municipalities in Guangdong and Jiangsu has dropped in the first 4 months, and the exports in the central and western regions are active. Wang Wei said that the distinctive feature of China's opening up to the outside world is "omnibearing". "With the start of the Shanghai free trade pilot zone", twenty provinces and autonomous regions are striving for the establishment of a free trade zone. After that, China's new growth point of foreign trade will blossom everywhere.

Customs Statistics in April also provide support for analysts' views. Despite the sharp drop in foreign trade data in the first 4 months, the decline in April has narrowed compared with the previous 3 months.

Data show that in April, China's total import and export value was 2 trillion and 200 billion yuan, down 1.3%, narrowing by 2.4% compared with the first quarter. Of which, exports of 1 trillion and 160 billion yuan, down 1.4%, narrowed 4.7% compared with the first quarter, 1 trillion and 40 billion yuan, 1.3%, trade surplus 112 billion 200 million yuan, 2.3%.

It is worth noting that during the visit to China, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council of China clearly stated that China's huge foreign exchange reserves are actually a "heavy burden". "The overall goal of China's foreign trade development is a relatively balanced foreign trade. If the surplus is less or slower this year than last year, it should be a situation that we are willing to accept. But in the long run, it is estimated that the annual difference is not small. " Li Jian concluded.