Luxury Bottoms Rebound, Usher In Recovery War

　　 Entering a new stage of single digit growth

According to the 2014 Spring Edition "Worldwide Luxury Markets Monitor" (global luxury goods) jointly issued by Bain & Company consulting company and Fondazione Altagamma Italy luxury industry association in May 19th. Market monitoring "According to the fixed exchange rate, the global luxury market is expected to grow by 4~6% in 2014, a further slowdown than in 2013, and EBITDA will increase by 7% in terms of interest, tax, depreciation (depreciation) and profit before amortization. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of fixed exchange rate was 6%, similar to that of last year, and the increase was 2~3% according to the real exchange rate.

Bain & Company consulting partner Claudia D "Arpizio" at the press conference that the global luxury market is entering a new stage. The growth rate in the next few years will remain in the 4~6% range, which is more stable and healthy than the double-digit growth during the 2009~2012 years, and has become the norm.

From the perspective of the development of the major brands, in the pursuit of maximization of interests, perhaps the pattern of long and thin water is really healthier, and the fat person who stuttering is not strong enough. The market trend seems inscrutable, but it sums up very much like philosophy of life. It is necessary to remain calm in the initial stage and resist temptation when the edge is full.

　　 Where is the fertile soil for recovery?

Apart from sensibility, the development trend of industry and market still needs rational analysis. Although the recovery has begun, there are also differences in countries and regions around the world. 2014 the Worldwide Luxury Markets Monitor report predicts that the US market and accessories sales will become the driving force for the global luxury market in 2014.

From the geographical point of view, although Japan will lead the global luxury market by 9% of the fixed exchange rate, it will not be obvious after considering the depreciation of the yen. It is estimated that the annual sales of luxury goods will reach 19 billion ~200 billion euros. In the Middle East, with 8% closely followed, Asia will grow by 7%, of which China's luxury consumption is expected to increase by only 2~4% to 15 billion ~160 billion euros, especially in China's Hongkong and Macao regions. The Americas are expected to increase by 6%, of which the US will increase 4~6% with the support of domestic consumer confidence and the support of tourism, with sales reaching 65 billion ~660 billion euros. Europe is expected to rise 4% to 76 billion ~780 billion euros, while luxury consumption in the European continent is still supported by China and Middle East tourists. Russia is facing structural crisis. It is expected that sales of luxury goods will decline by 4~6% over the whole year.

By product category, jewelry, Wrist Watch And accessories such as leather goods are expected to grow by 6%, with an increase of 5% in clothing.

　　 The horn of resurgence has blown.

For example, Italy Luxury goods Group Salvatore Ferragamo announced a net profit of 27 million 305 thousand euros in the first quarter of March 31st, including minority interest in 1 million 256 thousand euros, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year, and net profit of Salvatore Ferragamo rose 6.9% to 26 million 49 thousand euros compared to the same period last year. Operating profit and core profit EBITDA were recorded at 41 million 738 thousand euros and 52 million 763 thousand euros, respectively, rising by 7.4% and 9.9% respectively.

The revenue of Salvatore Ferragamo benefited from the growth of sales in all markets. The sales growth in Japan was the highest, reaching 18.1%, followed by 16.7% in central and South America. The Asia Pacific region with the highest income share grew by 5.7%, of which China's direct channel increased by 10%, while Europe and North America increased 9% and 2.2% respectively. As of March 31st, there were 356 direct outlets in the group's retail network. Revenue grew by 5.9% to 178 million euros in the first quarter. The sales growth of stores in the same store for at least one year was 3%, while the wholesale and tourist retail network had 264 third party stores, plus department stores and high-end multi brand stores, which contributed 116 million euros to the group, with an annual growth of 9.7%.

Meanwhile, the world's second largest luxury group, Cie. Financi re Richemont SA (CFR.VX), announced that its annual operating profit as of March 31st was basically the same as last year, which was 2 billion 419 million euros, though it could not last three consecutive years, but it met analysts' expectations. Net profit increased by 3.1% from 2 billion 5 million euros to 2 billion 67 million euros, and annual revenue increased 4.9% to 10 billion 649 million euros.

Nearly 50% of it came from Asia, including Japan. In the Asia Pacific region, revenues increased by 1.8% to 4 billion 235 million euros, while the performance of China's Hongkong and Macao regions was satisfactory, but sales in mainland China were shrunk compared with last year; both South Korea and Australia recorded double-digit growth. Japan's domestic market is booming due to the depreciation of the yen. Sales rose by 23% at fixed exchange rates, down by 1% to 892 million euros in real terms. The European, Middle East and African markets increased by 8.5% to 3 billion 919 million euros, and the European market revived, with double-digit growth in the Middle East and Africa. The Americas increased from 8.8% to 1 billion 603 million euros. Gary Saage, the group's chief financial officer, pointed out that China's business has already bottomed out after its earnings analysis. "At the worst time, two years ago, it should be gradually improved."

The group's jewelry department and watch department sales increased by 4.5% and 8.5% to 5 billion 438 million euros and 2 billion 986 million euros respectively, the Group Co chief executive officer Bernard Fornas said that Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels have performed well in the past year. Another co chief executive, Richard Lepeu, pointed out that Montblanc, which has been sluggish, will transform its strategy and focus on developing "lightweight" watches and accessories to offset the shrinking demand for high-end writing tools. However, luxury brands such as Alfred Dunhill, Chlo E and Lancel have been dragging down the sector. The annual operating loss has risen sharply from 38 million euros last year to 80 million euros. But Bernard Fornas demonstrated the determination to retain the brand of fashion and leather goods. He said: "we have hired a suitable team to fully support their involvement in product development and the development of supply chain, communication and distribution."