RMB "Yin Down" Trend Will Not Last.

< p > recently, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has reached a new low.

In this regard, the industry believes that the downward pressure on China's economic growth, the dollar strengthened, the RMB trading mechanism changes and other factors caused the continuous "negative" of the RMB.

Experts estimate that although the renminbi may continue to depreciate in the short term, it will not be too large.

In the medium to long term, the renminbi still has a basis for appreciation.

In the second half of this year, the RMB exchange rate will tend to be stable, showing a two-way fluctuation trend.

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< p > < strong > 1, the recent exchange rate "decline" is no longer < /strong > < /p >.

< p > the RMB exchange rate that has climbed steadily has been concluded at the beginning of this year.

According to statistics, in January 14th, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar began to lower after the historical high value of 6.0930, which made speculators who bet on the appreciation of the renminbi become a big surprise.

By May 26th, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated by 769 basis points.

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< p > in recent days, the RMB exchange rate has rebounded slightly during the "fall".

According to the China foreign exchange trading center, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar in May 26th was 6.1699 yuan, down 18 basis points from the previous trading day, and depreciated for the fourth consecutive trading day.

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< p > May 27th, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1687.

In May 29th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar rose by 11 basis points to 6.1705, but it once again set a new low since last September.

In May 30th, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate was 6.1695, an increase of 10 basis points from the previous day.

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< p > < strong > 2, the economic recovery is a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > US dollar < /a > strength > /strong > /p >

There are different opinions about the reasons for the continued depreciation of the RMB P.

There is a view that the central bank is dominant. According to the data of foreign exchange occupying accounts, the central bank has been buying the US dollar and selling renminbi to commercial banks and guiding the RMB to continue to weaken. The ultimate intention is to increase the arbitrage speculative cost and break the unilateral appreciation expectation of RMB.

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< p > "the intervention of the central bank is not great, and the market also believes that there is no room for big appreciation of the renminbi."

Sun Huayu, vice president of Jinan University international business school, told our reporter.

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< p > Sun Huayu analysis shows that China's economic growth slows down and its demand weakens, and the West weakens China. All these factors make the market feel that the appreciation of the RMB is not big enough, and the pressure of devaluation will be generated.

Moreover, the recent trade situation is not very optimistic, and the real economy does not support the appreciation of the renminbi.

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Zhang Monan, deputy researcher of China P International Economic Exchange Center, pointed out that the reversal of the RMB trend was once interpreted by the market as the result of "active intervention by the central bank".

In fact, in the process of devaluation, the central parity of RMB is lower than the spot rate, indicating that the central bank's policy is more inclined to control the depreciation rate of the RMB exchange rate, rather than the central bank's initiative to guide currency devaluation, but more from the global liquidity and the impulse impact of the Federal Reserve's QE (quantitative easing policy).

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< p > US economic recovery is also an important reason for the depreciation of the US dollar.

Gao Liankui, head of the project at Chongyang Financial Research Institute, Renmin University of China, pointed out that the US economy is gradually recovering, and the Chinese economy is still facing downward pressure, which is reflected in the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the RMB.

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Wen bin, director of macroeconomic research at Bank of China International Finance Research Institute, said that the impact of domestic financial risks may erupt, changes in the RMB trading mechanism, and the attitude of the Fed's firm withdrawal from P and so on. The devaluation of the RMB is expected to prevail in the QE.

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< p > < strong > 3, the medium and long term trend is better than < /strong > /p >

< p > > future a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB > /a > is it going to slide into the depreciation channel? Most experts hold the view that depreciation is a short-term behavior. In the long run, the RMB still has the basis of appreciation.

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Fan Jianjun, deputy director of the Securities Research Office of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, said that last year, including the first few months of this year, there was a special situation. Many hot money entered China under capital and financial terms. Therefore, with the support of the overall favorable balance, the renminbi will continue to appreciate in the future, which is beyond doubt.

He believes that in the short term, the depreciation of the renminbi may continue, but the rate will not be too great.

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< p > there is a study that the RMB a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > depreciation "/a" stage may have ended.

Qilu Securities pointed out in its report that first, the purpose of the reform is to expand the volatility and reduce the arbitrage space.

At present, the real estate market begins to adjust cycle, the rising trend of housing price is reversed, and the purpose of exchange rate depreciation is achieved.

In the context of downward trend in house prices, the continued depreciation of the renminbi may have a negative impact on asset prices.

Second, the government's intention to speed up the opening up of the capital market is obvious. In this process, the key to holding RMB assets and driving RMB to enter is a stable return on investment, while the continued depreciation of the RMB will affect the implementation effect of the policy.

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< p > Hao Daming, a researcher at Huarong securities, said: "the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the three quarter."

He believes that although China's economic growth rate may be slowed down by various uncertainties, the growth rate of single GDP (GDP) growth rate is below 7%, which is still one of the highest growth rates in the world. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate has a fundamental backing.

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