Differences In Monetary Policy Deduce The Argument Of Strength And Weakness

Monetary policy has always been concerned about the market. The difference of the central bank's opinions directly affects the performance of the currencies of the future market. The competition of monetary policy will eventually be interpreted as a battle of strength and weakness. The recent differences between the Fed and the European Central Bank have triggered a seesaw battle between the euro and other non US currencies and the US dollar. Under the drag of the EB series pigeon rhetoric, the euro led a further downward trend in non US currencies.

Recently, Delaki, the governor of the European Central Bank and Novotny, member of the Management Committee of the bank, spoke publicly, warning the danger of low inflation in the euro area. They say ultra low inflation in the euro area could hurt economic growth. Delaki said the European Central Bank is ready to take action at next meeting to fight low inflation. The next meeting of the ECB will be held in June 5th.

On the contrary, the United States is good in the near future. economic data The call for higher interest rates has been rising. Although the Fed has not shown hawkish views, investors generally expect that raising interest rates is only a matter of time. On the other hand, the mood of risk appetite is further enhanced, and it adds to the rebound of the US dollar.

According to the data released by the German Federal Statistical Bureau yesterday, the number of employed population calculated by the international labour organization method increased by 34 thousand compared with the previous month in Germany after the 4 quarter adjustment. In March, the figure increased by 38 thousand from an increase of 37 thousand people. The total number of ILO employment in Germany rose to 42 million 100 thousand after the 4 monthly adjustment. The former value was 42 million 67 thousand, compared to 41 million 697 thousand in the same period last year. In Germany, the total number of employment increased to 41 million 980 thousand in April, while the former value was 41 million 814 thousand, compared with 41 million 578 thousand in the same period last year in April.

At the same time, the United Kingdom in May. CBI The difference between retail sales is 16, 35 is expected, and the former value is 30.

4H sterling was basically limited to a narrow adjustment in the Asia Pacific market yesterday. European disk Time period in the negative data under the suppression of the upper limit of 1.6812 after the continuation of the overnight downlink adjustment, the U.S. disk time fell below 1.6750, a new low within the next day, the average system is a perfect empty arrangement, MACD zero axis below the running fork, today's attention to the rebound in the 1.6745-55 area, once again blocked, is expected to further open up the downside space.

Operation suggestion: rebound to 1.6745-50, signal blockage, stop loss 1.6795, target 1.6695-1.6700, break through the rear can continue to hold, target 1.6640-50, beware of the European market period after the first suppression after the shock of the fall again.

4H Australian dollar yesterday's trend is basically the same as expected, while the top 0.9270 was down again after the European market was blocked again. However, it fell to the bottom of the United States for a period of time before it fell back to the bottom of the market. However, today's early trading in the early trading season was delayed by the influence of many factors, and now it was hit and rebounded again after hitting 0.9211 quickly. At present, the short term average line is gathering at a low level, and the medium and long term average line has been slightly leveled, and the short term direction is unknown.

Operation suggestion: rebound to 0.9270-75 near the signal block, light warehouse short, stop loss 0.9320, target 0.9220-30, break through the rear can continue to hold, target 0.9170-80, conservative today wait and see.