Million Tons Of High Storage Or Suppression Of Cotton Prices Down Or Down

On the 3 day, the 1501 contract of zhengmian broke down the wide range of concussion in the early stage, and the price dropped sharply and fell below the support of 15500 yuan / ton. The author believes that although the details of the cotton direct subsidy pilot scheme in Xinjiang have not yet been published, the cotton supply and demand pattern of China is currently under the pressure of nearly ten million tons of high inventories, and cotton prices are likely to fall and rise.

According to the US Department of agriculture's latest global cotton supply and demand forecast data, China's cotton inventories now account for 59.5% of the world's total. Therefore, China's cotton market will have a long way to go inventory. Since the state lowered the reserve price of reserve cotton, the daily turnover of cotton reserves has increased significantly, and the proportion of cotton reserves has also increased to a certain extent. According to statistics, as of May 30th, the total amount of cotton put into the stock market was 6 million 296 thousand tons, with a total turnover of 1 million 775 thousand tons, with a turnover ratio of 28.20%.

At present, China's cotton inventory is as high as 9 million 955 thousand tons, enough to meet the cotton consumption demand of next year. High inventory The suppression will continue to restrict the uplink of China's cotton price operation.

Since 2010 Cotton price The difference continued high until April 1, 2014, the domestic reserve cotton auction bid price decreased from 18000 yuan / ton to 17250 yuan / ton, and the difference of cotton price between inside and outside showed a trend of narrowing. At present, the price difference between home and abroad was reduced to 1863 yuan / ton under the sliding tax, and the price difference of 1% tariff quota was 3092 yuan / ton, which basically returned to the normal operation range.

The recovery of cotton price between inside and outside is expected to reduce the dependence of foreign textile enterprises on the later spinning enterprises, thus bringing the volume of imported cotton and imported yarns to a callback trend. According to customs statistics, China in April cotton Imports of 224 thousand tons, down 207 thousand tons, or 48%. 2013/2014 cotton imports totaled 2 million 109 thousand tons in China, down 45% from the same period last year.

According to the survey data of cotton information network, the industrial stocks of textile enterprises in the end of April were 617 thousand and 500 tons, down 2 thousand and 700 tons from last month, and industrial inventories decreased slightly. Since April 1st, the new cotton trading policy has been put into effect. Textile enterprises with short inventory have begun to purchase cotton. However, because of the large number of national cotton reserves and the downward trend of cotton prices in the future market, it is possible for enterprises to purchase cotton as much as they want. In the current general consumption situation, it is estimated that the textile enterprises' own warehouse stock plus the auction amount of reserve cotton can basically meet the needs of enterprises. This is bound to reduce the purchasing demand of textile enterprises to foreign cotton, and there will be a certain impact on the US cotton market.

The US Department of agriculture's report for the first time in May predicted that the global cotton supply and demand data were released in the new year. According to the data, the volume of oversupply in the global cotton market in 2014/2015 is narrowed further than that in this year, and the supply and demand side is facing a favorable direction. However, the overall supply situation is still oversupply, with an excess of 789 thousand tons, far below the 1 million 688 thousand tons this year. In addition, the final inventory of global cotton in 2014/2015 reached 22 million 134 thousand tons, which has been increasing continuously for 5 years, and has also hit a record high since 1960.

In China, the supply and demand pattern of cotton is very similar to that of the world. The output of 2014/2015 is 6 million 423 thousand tonnes, 544 thousand tons less than the current year, 8 million 56 thousand tons of consumption, 327 thousand tons higher than the current year, and 1 million 851 thousand tons of imports, a sharp reduction of 925 thousand tons compared with this year. China's cotton supply and demand is still a pattern of excess supply, but the surplus has narrowed down from 2 million 14 thousand tons this year to 218 thousand tons. However, in the new year, China's cotton end stock has been increased by 207 thousand tons to 13 million 175 thousand tons, which has far exceeded the annual consumption of cotton. Under this high inventory pressure, it is difficult to predict the new cotton prices in China in the new year.