In June, The Stock Market Ushered In "Sunny Days".

< p > 1, economic aspect.

In May, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 49.4, which was lower than the initial value of 49.7, but higher than the final value of 48.1 in April, and hit a 4 month high.

The final value of the new export orders index rose to 53.2, returning to the top of the ups and downs and hitting a 49 month high.

The initial value of the index is 52.7. < /p >.

< p > although the PMI is still below the credit line, the growth in recent months has at least eased the market's unease about the downside risks of the economy.

Exports are the lifeblood of China's economy, and the new export orders in May are high, and this is a reprieve for the declining trade balance.

In order to support steady growth of foreign trade, the general office of the State Council issued "opinions on supporting steady growth of foreign trade" in mid May, and pointed out that in order to achieve annual growth target, efforts must be made to optimize the structure of foreign trade from many aspects, improve the environment of foreign trade and strengthen policy guarantee.

Policy support for foreign trade has reduced the expectation of a significant depreciation of the renminbi.

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< p > although the economic growth rate may drop to about 7% within the year, and even continue to decline, but as long as there are no major risks such as the systemic risks and the financial risks caused by the QE withdrawal, the economy can maintain stable operation. This is the biggest positive effect of the present stage economy on the stock market.

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< p > two, policy.

The number of preferred shares, the number of IPO in the year is clear, the nine new countries, the Shanghai and Hong Kong through trains, and so on.

To see clearly the context of the stock market, we must have a clear look at the policy. The nine preferential shares and the new countries clearly support the dividends and reorganization of the listed companies. The dividend system as an important basic system has been strongly concerned by the regulators.

In the long run, a sound dividend system will help to solve the chronic problems of "A financing" and "light dividends", protect investors' rights and interests and weaken speculative atmosphere.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > merger and acquisition < /a > is a magic weapon to resolve overcapacity and enhance the scale effect of the industry. This year's merger and reorganization is focused on the reform of state-owned enterprises. The reform of state-owned enterprises in Shanghai has clearly put forward the implementation of equity incentive and mixed operation outside the country. It is certain that this year's reform of state-owned enterprises will inevitably lead to a new industry and a new format after the policy guidance. The fundamentals will be substantially improved and the performance will increase significantly.

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From a technical point of view, in May, the fourth breakdown of 2000 points in the year did not fail, indicating investors' expectation for the bottom of the policy. P

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< p > three, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > capital < /a >.

Micro stimulus policies are frequent.

On the one hand, the intensity of directional reduction has increased. In April 25th this year, the central bank lowered the RMB deposit reserve ratio of the rural commercial banks in the county area by 2 percentage points. At the same time, it also lowered the RMB deposit reserve ratio of the rural cooperative banks in the county area by 0.5 percentage points. In May 30th, Premier Li Keqiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to deploy and increase the financial support for the real economy.

The meeting made it clear that we should increase the intensity of the "targeted reduction" measures, and release the "a" href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > the banking industry < /a > financial institutions to appropriately reduce the reserve ratio for the "three rural" and small and micro enterprises that meet the needs of structural adjustment and meet the market demand.

On the other hand, according to the rumor of interbank market in May 29th, the central bank recently issued 300 billion yuan refinancing to CDB, or used to promote shantytowns pformation. Besides, the movements of treasury bonds futures and the low risk free interest rates were all interpreted as explicit easing signals of monetary policy.

In April, China's CPI index rose 1.8%, the lowest level in 18 months.

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At the same time, it is worth noting that fourth of the nine new countries are "cultivating private markets", "no administrative examination and approval" and other principles, which have positive and positive effects on the private placement market in terms of direction and principle. P

We believe that the private equity market will become an important force in the capital market and even in the development of the national economy, and will bring a lot of capital to the stock market.

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< p > taking history as a guide, the downward trend of the economy will not necessarily lead to a bear market. The possibility of a phased bull market is supported by policies and capital support.

Since there is no liquidity and periodic bull market, for the stage of the bull market, grasp the selection of a stock is sure to do the homework.

From this year's policy support, opportunities for mergers and acquisitions, equity incentives, regional economies and sub shares may be larger.

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