A Sharp Drop In Foreign Exchange Reserves And A Steady Decrease In Foreign Exchange Settlement

< p > on Monday (June 16th), the central bank's latest financial institutions' RMB credit income and expenditure account shows that the balance of foreign exchange held by financial institutions in May was 29 trillion and 540 billion 778 million yuan, an increase of 38 billion 665 million yuan.

This means that the increase in foreign exchange accounted for 67% in May compared with 116 billion 921 million yuan in April.

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< p > at the same time, the data of the safe show that in May 2014, the bank's foreign exchange sales surplus was 24 billion 100 million yuan, down from last month.

Among them, the surpluses of foreign exchange on behalf of banks were 41 billion 600 million yuan, down from last month.

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< p > "foreign exchange settlement data and foreign exchange account data are very similar, the trend is the same."

Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank's financial market department, told reporters that there are two reasons for this: first, in May, the RMB is still in a weak position, and many enterprises are not eager to settle foreign exchange; two, the central bank's normalization intervention is less.

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< p > < strong > May, added < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign exchange accounted for < /a > only 38 billion 700 million < /strong > /p >

< p > central bank data show that the foreign exchange balance in May was 29 trillion and 540 billion 778 million yuan, an increase of 38 billion 665 million yuan, and the scale was 67% lower than that in April.

According to statistics, in the 1~4 month of this year, foreign exchange accounted for 437 billion 366 million yuan, 128 billion 246 million yuan, 189 billion 197 million yuan and 116 billion 921 million yuan respectively by financial institutions, showing a downward trend overall.

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< p > at the same time, statistics released by the safe show that in May 2014, the bank settled 874 billion 300 million yuan, sold 850 billion 200 million yuan, and the foreign exchange surplus was 24 billion 100 million yuan, down 25 billion 600 million yuan from last month.

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< p > < < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > the bank's settlement of foreign exchange is less than /a > 857 billion 200 million yuan RMB, and the sales volume is 815 billion 600 million yuan RMB, the foreign exchange surplus is 41 billion 600 million yuan (the sales surplus is 48 billion 900 million yuan in April), and the bank's own foreign exchange settlement deficit is 17 billion 500 million yuan (April surplus is 10 billion 800 million yuan).

In the same period, the bank's agent a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > forward settlement, < /a > signed 112 billion 200 million yuan, signed 106 billion 900 million yuan in forward sale and foreign exchange, and 5 billion 300 million yuan in forward net settlement (9 billion 100 million yuan net forward settlement in April).

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< p > "there are two reasons for this. First, the RMB is still weak in May, and many enterprises are not eager to settle the foreign exchange. Second, the central bank's intervention in the normalization of the foreign exchange market has been reduced, which has also played a role in reducing the increase in foreign exchange to some extent."

Liu Dongliang told the daily economic news reporter.

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Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research at < p > and China Merchants Securities, also said in a report that there were three reasons for the increase in foreign exchange holdings in May. That is, the daily intervention of the central bank's withdrawal from the foreign exchange market, the continued willingness of the enterprises and residents to maintain the exchange rate caused by the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, and the decline in the net external payment of cross-border RMB in May.

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P > in addition, the macro research department of Minsheng Securities said that in May, the trade surplus was 35 billion 900 million US dollars, compared with the April $18 billion 400 million in April. The non rise and reverse of foreign exchange reflected the weakening of the willingness of the market to settle, the cross-border capital inflow, the expansion of the RMB trading amplitude, the weakening of the unilateral rise value, and the private sector inclined to the foreign currency.

Foreign exchange data are weakening, and the central bank has a dominant factor (the RMB exchange rate volatility is expanding), and there are also passive factors.

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< p > < strong > RMB short term or maintain concussion < /strong > < /p >

< p > reporter noted that since January this year, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated for 4 consecutive months.

In May, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fluctuated from the lower exchange rate range since the devaluation.

However, since June, the spot exchange rate has also seen a significant appreciation under the guidance of the middle price of the RMB to us dollar exchange rate.

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< p > Liu Dongliang believes that if the RMB rebounded for nearly two weeks in June, the willingness of the enterprises to sell and sell foreign exchange should rise. Compared with May, foreign exchange will also increase.

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Besides, P also told reporters that the depreciation of the renminbi since the beginning of this year has not led to a significant decrease in the external capital inflows. Liu Dongliang also told reporters that

"What we understand is that many arbitrage companies are still doing so, and there has not been a lot of liquidation, because the interest rate difference between domestic and overseas is still very attractive."

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< p > Liu Dongliang said that the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the flow of funds is limited and not as big as expected before the market.

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< p > "from the trend of the middle price of the exchange rate, it may be possible for the central bank to release the signal of the devaluation of the RMB. After all, the middle price is still a policy signal."

Liu Dongliang also said that this also means that the depreciation of the renminbi may be almost the same.

Of course, there is also a possibility that the purpose of the central bank's regulation of the middle price is not to stop the depreciation of the renminbi, but to increase the two-way fluctuation of the renminbi.

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< p > Liu Dongliang analysis shows that in the short term, the RMB exchange rate may oscillate for some time at the current level, but the next trend is not yet well established.

He also pointed out that, in the medium term, for example, by the end of this year, the spot exchange rate should appreciate, at least when compared with the current appreciation.

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