Cotton Market Analysis Behind The Mainland Cotton "Thin Body Retreat" Behind

Here world clothing shoes The Xiaobian of the hat net introduces the market situation: the other side of the "thin body retreat" of the mainland cotton.

For a variety of reasons, the mainland cotton is becoming more and more "thin" regardless of its area or output. This indisputable fact has been clearly reflected in the 3 major cotton regions of the Yellow River Valley, the Yangtze River Valley and Southern China in the past. It is predicted that with the further deepening of the reform of the cotton circulation system, especially the gradual development of the policy of the national cotton shifting, the main cotton producing areas in the mainland are walking on the "road" of cotton retreat.

Sharp reduction in area, sharp reduction of cotton farmers, and sharp reduction in production resources. So, what is the situation of cotton production and marketing in the mainland this year and even in recent years? Remember that as early as the end of the last century, cotton circulation system reform started only three or four years ago. A group of business owners in Jiangsu, who mainly engaged in cotton production, supply and marketing, once described the future of the cotton market. The old man said that farmers would sell cotton in the future. Spin Enterprises use cotton, just like today (1995-1998 years), when they sell their eggs on bamboo baskets, when they sell, sell and sell to them, all of them are subjective and free.

And the textile enterprise is also like cake pastry room, when to buy eggs, how much to buy, who to buy, everything is arranged according to the needs of business operation. In fact, the effect of the cotton circulation system reform is that the cotton production and marketing is changing from a planned economy to a market economy. In fact, this sentence has already been fulfilled, but only today, in the traditional main production area, cotton production and marketing goes downhill year after year, the "retail" resources will become a product transaction mode for the cotton growers in the market in recent years or in recent years, and small cotton enterprises and small textile enterprises that are still breathing may not die all the time. They can only choose to eat and eat in the "retail" market with a few pockets in their pocket. The entire cotton industry economic chain in the mainland is fading away, shrinking and speeding up, and the outbound is no longer developing.

About cotton growers: in the cotton growing area of Northern Jiangsu Province, the investigation on the layout of planting structure caused by the reduction of cotton weight has long been a strong reaction. At a time when the cotton market in the mainland has not completely adapted to the sudden change in Jiangsu, many cotton farmers are helpless. And because of the transformation of the cotton purchasing market, the mainland cotton farmers have at least ten years to say goodbye to the crowded cotton sales experience. They have no longer need to transport cotton to the cotton gathering station or factory which is not far away from home.

In addition to the few cotton varieties and the small amount of resources, more importantly, after the cotton purchase market was liberalized, thousands of soldiers and horses fought for the "cotton steamed bread" which was sold by the state-owned cotton monopoly purchase and marketing policy which was commissioned by the state's supply and marketing cooperative system. It was farmers who carried cotton and asked for their income. Now they sell their cars to the fields.

The sale of cotton farmers today, the main selling price of cotton, how much is the price, the rules are not regulated, whether it is all cash, and so on, one by one wishes to agree to call cotton for money. Similar to this situation, most farmers think it is very comfortable, although knowing that the direct processing plant can sell more than eight cents, the cost of packing, transporting and losing time is also a sum of money.

Cotton dealers earn a lot of money, and as for someone who has been adulterated in the cotton, it is another matter. Since this year, it has been predicted that such farmers will change their way of selling cotton, that is, the real sense of "retail". It is understood that in the inland cotton region, this year only the first country in Xinjiang to carry out cotton target price subsidies, the state from this year, the purchase and sale of cotton storage and other policy information, many farmers have learned that, after the purchase and sale of cotton prices will appear downward market analysis has also been circulating among farmers. A large number of inquiries show that farmers have not yet found suitable varieties for production and can replace cotton varieties. The most direct psychology will be the selective purchase of the new cotton market after more than two months and the decision of future production.

Because in the past two or three years, that is, the 2011 cotton market after the roller coaster ride, the purchase price of cotton has been stable than that of the other countries. In addition, the climate conditions in the last two years are better and the cotton output is higher. In addition, the state's policy of collecting and storing cotton is the basic guarantee. The cotton farmers in the mainland have a better return. The income of acre cotton in Nantong and Yancheng in Jiangsu has been over 2000 yuan for two consecutive years. Although it can not be compared with the profits of some efficient facilities, the market is stable, and the income has increased slightly compared with the past. Most cotton growers are satisfied.

This year, the cotton market in the mainland is out of order, especially in the case of the acquisition market, which is completely unlocked. When visiting several farmers in recent years, when asked about how to sell cotton this year, it is almost the same answer. Therefore, there will be an unprecedented phenomenon of cotton holding for sale at the beginning of this year.

　　大面積縮減棉花，資源產量也會大幅減少，對于種植戶而言，小面積種植，一次采收一包半包棉，很難形成批量，千家萬戶更是以“零售”方式出售棉花，前后期棉花一條龍，質量好丑混為一體姑且不論，而出售量次亦會發生改變，比如，先弄個百兒八十斤——以試探為目的，而出售次數零星則會更明顯，因為農民會以給價多少為考量，而在這樣的收購市場主體面前，農民并不等于賺到，因為下游市場行情總歸要給上游市場一個參考價位，而這個價位不是在參考了生產者的得失后做出的，而是由經濟走勢和消費需求自然形成的，如果市場的大背景注定了棉價的下行，那么，這個果子是甜是澀還是農民吃，這份負擔是重是輕還是農民背。 Under the background of the market, it is foreseeable and understandable for farmers to implement their own labor income through "retail". {page_break}

About Enterprises: farmers generally dispose of agricultural products in the form of "retail", which is a new pattern of production and marketing of agricultural and sideline products under the new situation, which is neither good nor bad. But for enterprises, it is just a big displacement of identity. When the farmer asked for your cotton, you asked the cotton grower to sell you the cotton. The transformation of roles shows how difficult the business is.

In the first two years, the cotton purchase and storage policy adopted by the state has made cotton prices stable in Cotton City, and the production and operation of the 400 cotton enterprises have been guaranteed. The 200 cotton enterprises that have not been cleared have found food in the specific cotton market environment. And this year, the mainland cotton acquisition enterprises will face another scene.

First of all, 400 and 200 return to the same starting line, the common fate is that everyone is not enough to eat. In the main cotton producing area, the capacity design of the acquisition and processing enterprises of type 400 is larger, and the worsening cotton production has also increased the distance between supply and demand. When 400 and 200 are faced with the "basket shopping" of cotton growers on empty stomach, prices and services become the resources for resources. Analysis of the cotton purchase market this year, type 400 and 200 cotton enterprises as long as the boot, will go to the front desk, and cotton farmers exchange and docking, as for the price, no one will not dare to panic buying, and the service, of course, is "people without smiling faces do not open shop", in order to get the resources as the goal, full of tricks. Farmer "retail" and "zero purchase" of enterprises, the so-called farmer brokers who made 400 or 200 setters in the past will no longer be active this year, because the direct contact with farmers has become inevitable. Through the practice of the seller's market and the further downward production of cotton flower in the mainland, whether the type of enterprise is large or small, cotton enterprises are gradually out of the business for the past two years. At the beginning of the coming year, a large number of cotton enterprises will be left behind in the inland cotton area. Similarly, many small and medium-sized textile enterprises that live in the cotton region will also accelerate their structural adjustment and production and reorganization along with the "downsizing" of cotton production.

Of course, the traditional textile enterprises in the cotton producing areas can not live on the "retail" of farmers or small businesses. In fact, this situation has been rewritten. However, after the advantage of organizing resources in the mainland is gradually lost, the textile enterprises in the mainland depend entirely on purchasing cotton and Xinjiang cotton. Imported cotton and Xinjiang cotton are not allowed to buy "zero purchase". Just now some inland textile enterprises only keep raw materials inventory for a week to 10 days. In the near future, after organizing the resources to stop in the near future, a lot of funds will be produced to Xinjiang and other batches of cars. In the existing mainland enterprises, most of them are engaged in close buying and buying on credit. They are old customers who are in the same place for a long time. When the situation is good, the prepaid subscribers have their own market, and the market goes backward. They have long term credit, and they have a settlement in a year or so. In the mainland, where there are large resources and large areas, they are unable to enter the Xinjiang, or the small and medium sized textile enterprises that purchase imported cotton in large quantities will have a lot of factories, and the large and small textile factories are even more numerous in the main cotton producing areas.

While the fate of cotton farmers and cotton spinning enterprises is changing, the circulation resources of the main cotton producing areas in the mainland are also facing a lot of excess, waste and disappearance. In the Yangtze River valley cotton region, as early as the planned economy era, the establishment of a sound cotton production, supply and marketing system is huge and resources are deep. Take only one Dafeng City as an example. The county level city always grows 50-60 mu of cotton and produces 1 million 500 thousand tons of lint annually.

As early as the early 90s of last century, there were 8 large state-owned cotton processing and cotton machinery, oil and chemical enterprises, 29 cotton purchasing and marketing centers, 104 professional cotton purchasing stations, and over 10000 employees. Such a cotton production and marketing system is facing the 1 million 500 thousand cotton in the city, from the acquisition and processing in September of that year to second years before May, and the annual task has been fully completed. Only 4 months later, new cotton was put into storage, and the acquisition of a line completed the acquisition as early as the end of that year.

It is this already huge circulation system, which is liberalized in the country. cotton After the circulation market, not only did not reduce, but also launched the crazy investment wave, so far, the actual capacity of the acquisition and processing of cotton is much, it is not official can be counted. In addition to the normal driving enterprises, there are many small cotton enterprises and small rolling cars that seek tax evasion and tax avoidance. A fairly standardized pattern of cotton circulation has long been shattered. The serious waste of resources generated by repeated investment and blind investment is shocking. Today, cotton production has fallen sharply, and cotton sales have changed to zero and structural changes have changed. These cotton enterprises are just like Domino, and the negative effects of cotton purchasing, processing and operating equipment, sites, employees, management and market resources wasted or idle will be directly or indirectly transformed into real social contradictions. Therefore, the decision-makers should attach great importance to it.