Textile Enterprises Optimistic About Future Sales And Expand Reserves To Start Work

After the festival, textile enterprises in the lower reaches have gradually resumed production, with almost zero inventory in the hands of dealers, and even a short spandex product in Guangdong has been in urgent need.

"The whole industry is still in a downward direction, but enterprises have restored confidence."

Li Junsong, a CITIC investment analyst, tried to find some optimistic news in a pessimistic way.

"The order data is still relatively poor, but it is almost the same, because the enterprise has begun to store production data, the bottom of the industry is approaching."

Li Junsong's logic is: if you are not optimistic about the future, will you increase the reserves of means of production?

If you are still not optimistic about future sales, will you make every effort to prepare for production?

Li Junsong's optimism is not without support. After analyzing the investigation of Huafeng spandex, Wang Liping, an analyst at Shenyang and Wanguo, believes that downstream demand is stabilizing and the operating rate of enterprises is picking up.

Li Junsong, who is optimistic, is not alone in Jiangsu. Xu Weiming, director of sunshine sunshine, told reporters: "the impact is still there, but it is not hurt. At least, the construction period in the first half of the year has been fully lined up, and there has been no attrition or other phenomena."

Jiangsu sunshine group, located in Xinqiao Town, Jiangyin City, Jiangsu, looks like there is no shadow of economic crisis. A big road divides the factory area into two things. It is nearly noon, and the workers on the road are all on duty to eat.

In February, the cold winter in the south of the Yangtze River has gone.

"The impact of the economic crisis is still there. Especially during the three quarter of last year, the situation is particularly serious, mainly because of the decline in product prices and the company's earnings are also affected."

Xu Weiming talked to reporters about the difficulties encountered by Jiangsu sun in the financial tsunami, but the words did not reveal pessimism, saying only that "even if the profit is not so good, the production of the company will continue."

Xu Weiming told reporters, "the price of products is falling, but the number of orders is limited.

In the first half of the year, the production period of the company was already full, and the workers still worked the same way. The company did not lay off workers or pay a reduction.

Xu Weiming said that this is related to the product structure of Jiangsu sunshine.

"We have unique product lines for both domestic and export markets. These products are more capable of resisting risks."

Xu Weiming said, the domestic sales, the company's products are mainly professional clothing, such as China Mobile, public security system and so on.

In terms of exports, the main product of Jiangsu sunshine is woolen products. "Our products are more competitive in the world, and they are all old customers, and their relationship is very stable."

Li Junsong also agrees with this statement. "The order of Jiangsu sunshine in 2009 is still acceptable, and the relationship with the downstream is relatively stable, the quality is also good, and the production situation is not affected."

Li Junsong believes that the exchange rate is also one of the reasons for maintaining the stability of Jiangsu's sunshine export orders.

"There are many products exported to Japan from Jiangsu sunshine, and the renminbi has continued to depreciate against the Japanese yen for some time, which has helped a lot in stabilizing exports to Japan."

But at present, the RMB exchange rate against the yen has been repeated, "may have an impact on exports."

In this regard, Xu Weiming said, "the current problem is not necessarily the exchange rate problem, the key is that the economic downturn leads to a reduction in demand. This is not a problem of an enterprise, or even a problem of the textile industry, but a problem encountered by the whole world economy."

In Li Junsong's view, "the whole industry is still not optimistic about the order situation, and sales are still in the doldrums."

Data show that the total sales volume of the whole textile industry in 2008 is 862 billion 590 million yuan, up 16.3% over the same period last year.

Judging from the output of upstream cloth and fiber, the growth rate is still in a downward path, and output is basically the same as last year.

Textile exports increased by 16.6%, but the trend was downward.

However, there is no bright spot, for example, the export of shoes and hat products is steady, increasing by 17% compared with the same period last year. The export growth rate of clothing began to rebound in December, and the situation of negative growth was changed.

Li Junsong believes that the investment in fixed assets in the industry has fallen into a historical downturn, especially in the textile industry. The growth rate of fixed assets investment in the clothing industry is 20%.

From the PMI index, the textile industry in December new orders index and new export orders index set a new low, the industry index continues to explore.

"When the economic crisis happens, there will be a downward trend in consumption structure. The purchase of high-end products now can only buy medium products. The original products can only buy low-end products, compared with medium and high-end products are particularly affected."

Xu Weiming is not too optimistic about the future development of Huafeng spandex in the 3 quarter. "When the industry starts to turn better, it is hard to say, but under this situation, we can continue to do it."

By contrast, Li Junsong is more optimistic. "Purchasing index and raw material inventory index have rebounded slightly in December last year, which indicates that enterprises have begun to reserve production data."

Li Junsong said that another manifestation of "the bottom of the industry is approaching" is the gradual increase in demand.

Wang Liping, after inspecting Huafeng spandex, thinks that "after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand of the company has stabilized, and the operating rate has begun to rise."

According to his introduction, textile enterprises in the lower reaches of the festival have gradually resumed production, while dealers have almost zero inventory, and the market in Guangdong has even been short of Spandex Products.

"Then there was a demand for replenishment."

Wang Liping said, "under this demand, most manufacturers are in the process of stocking and upgrading the start-up rate."

Huafeng spandex Securities Division staff also confirmed to reporters that the company's operating rate has been rapidly upgraded recently, the production line of the new plant has started more than 20.

It is understood that Huafeng spandex has an existing capacity of 42 thousand tons, of which 12 thousand tons of old plant capacity is in the period of shutdown and pformation, while the new plant has 30 thousand production capacity of 32 production lines, and by the end of February, it is expected to produce 28 production lines.

At this point, the company's overall operating rate will also rise from the lowest 40% to around 60%.

"The Huafeng spandex is selling at a low price in January, and the price will return to normal in February, and the profit will improve every month. It is estimated that the three quarter will turn into a deficit."

Wang Liping said that Huafeng spandex has obvious cost advantages in the industry, and the cost per ton is about 10% lower than that of the industry. By the three quarter, the gross profit margin of the company will also rise sharply when most manufacturers break even.

Wang Xiaonan: editor in charge