The Price Of Seed Cotton In The New Year Is Affecting The Hearts Of Cotton Enterprises And Cotton Farmers In The Mainland.

< p > recently, during the communication with cotton farmers and cotton growers in the mainland, reporters found that everyone had a high degree of concern about the price of seed cotton in the new year. In addition, the target price subsidy policy was implemented in Xinjiang in 2014, but the policy level in mainland China had not yet been heard. The price of the mainland cotton seed in the new year is affecting the hearts of cotton enterprises and cotton growers. < /p >
< p > it is understood that at present, mainland a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton growers < /a > and cotton enterprises have different opinions on the psychological expectation of seed cotton purchase price. Most cotton farmers' psychological expectations are at 4.0-4.3 yuan / Jin, and some cotton farmers in the Yangtze Valley even say that they are not sold at 4 yuan / Jin. And cotton enterprises are cautious. Hebei, Jiangsu, Hunan and other places of cotton prices on the new year's seed cotton prices mostly see 3.4-3.6 yuan / Jin line, and a small part of cotton enterprises are expected to be as low as 3.1 yuan / Jin. < /p >
< p > < < a href= > http:// > www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > policy > /a > level, the new year has abolished the temporary purchase and storage policy, instead of the target price subsidy policy. Although only Xinjiang cotton area is subsidized according to the target price, the internal land will also calculate its own income according to the target price. According to the target price of 19800 yuan / ton of lint cotton, the target price of seed cotton is calculated at 4.4 yuan / Jin. Combined with the actual situation of various regions, the cotton farmers' psychological expectation of seed cotton price is basically in the range of 4.0-4.3 yuan / Jin. < /p >
< p > from the view of planting cost, taking Hebei Cangzhou as an example, in recent years, the average physicochemical cost (seed, pesticide, fertilizer, etc.) of cotton in the past few years has been invested at about 500 yuan per mu, with an average of 10-15 workers per mu. According to the calculation of 100 yuan per day per worker, it is equivalent to 1000-1400 yuan per mu, with an average investment of 1500-2000 yuan / mu. The average yield of seed cotton in normal year is 500 Jin / mu. According to the selling price of 4 yuan / Jin, cotton farmers can earn 2000 yuan per mu, and the average income is 400 yuan / mu. If drought occurs, floods and other natural disasters, the yield per mu will drop, so that cotton farmers will lose money. < /p >
< p > except for the above factors, the influence of < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > seed cotton price < /a > has weather and planting area and other factors. Since June, there are more natural disasters in cotton growing areas in Hebei. More precipitation in Hunan and Jiangxi in 2014, which is also harmful to cotton growth. This will inevitably affect the yield and quality of seed cotton, and is also the promoter of rising cost of seed cotton cultivation. As for the area of cotton planting, the cotton planting area in the whole country is showing a decline in 15-30% except for the northwest cotton area. Cotton farmers will have such a mentality that there may be a shortage of seed cotton in the new year, so some cotton farmers will be reluctant to sell. < /p >
< p > June 2014, cotton spot trading price stabilized at 17000 yuan / ton, while Zheng cotton CF1501 decreased from 15000 yuan / ton in early June to 14300 yuan / ton, which reflected the market's pessimistic mood for cotton prices in the future. Cotton prices are expected to fall in the price range of spot price and Zheng cotton CF1501 contract in the new year. According to the current price, if the seed cotton price is 3.8 yuan / Jin, the cost of lint processing is 16890 yuan / ton. When the seed cotton price is 3.4 yuan / Jin, the processing cost of the seed cotton is 14648 yuan / ton. Reporters and cotton enterprises to understand that the mainland cotton enterprises generally do not optimistic about the market situation in 2014, and a considerable number of enterprises have switched careers, it is not difficult to understand why cotton prices on seed cotton prices are expected to remain at a lower price. < /p >
< p > by understanding, the reporter found that cotton enterprises and cotton farmers have their own psychological expectations for the price of seed cotton in the new year. There will be a very difficult difference between them. If there is no other policy measure to "irate" the price difference, there is bound to be a party to bear the losses and make concessions in front of the market. But we also want to see a happy situation, which will further test the wisdom of policy level. < /p >