Reasonable Growth Of Financing Scale: China'S Credit Structure Continues To Improve

< p > > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp" > strong > reporter < /strong > /a > strong >: what are the characteristics of money supply, credit and social financing in China's financial market in the first half of the year?

< p > Sheng Songcheng: the data in the first half of the year (including money, credit and social financing scale) are relatively abundant, which may be higher than the market expectation: from the monetary data, the M2 growth rate in March is 12.1%, which is relatively low, reaching 13.2% in April, 0.2 percentage point to 13.4% in May, and 14.7% in June; from the scale of social financing, the scale of social financing in the first half of the year reached 10 trillion and 570 billion yuan, reaching the highest level in history; from the credit data, RMB loans increased by 5 trillion and 740 billion yuan, nearly 660 billion yuan over the same period last year.

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At the same time, the loan structure continued to improve at P.

For example, at the end of 6, the balance of loans for small and micro enterprises was 14 trillion and 170 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7% over the same period last year, 5.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of loans for large enterprises.

Among them, the growth rate of micro enterprise loans reached 20.4% at the end of 6.

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< p > generally speaking, the above data reflect that the current market liquidity is relatively abundant, which has a greater role in promoting steady growth and structural adjustment.

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< p > > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp" > strong > reporter < /strong > /a > strong >: is there excess liquidity at present? < /strong > /p >

< p > Sheng Songcheng: as I have just said, the growth rate of M2 at the end of 6 is 14.7%, which may be higher than that expected by the market, but it can not be said that there is a problem of excess liquidity.

There are two figures to give you a clear answer to this question.

The first figure is the last 20 years (1994-2013 years). The average growth rate of M2 is about 20%. (our country's money supply is officially announced since 1994, and it is just 20 years ago).

The second figure is the last 10 years (2004-2013 years), and the average M2 growth rate is about 17.2%.

And now it is 14.7%, which is much lower than the average growth rate of nearly 20 years and nearly 10 years.

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< p > to add that the growth rate of M2 is relatively moderate now.

From the analysis of the empirical relationship between monetary growth and economic growth and inflation in recent 10 years, the growth rate of China's money supply M2 is generally expected to reach such a level: GDP growth rate +CPI growth rate +2 to 3 percentage points.

China's GDP growth target this year is around 7.5%. In the government work report, CPI is around 3.5%, plus 2 to 3 percentage points, that is, 13%-14%.

At present, the M2 growth rate is 14.7%, which is very close to this area.

We expect that M2 growth this year will fall within the reasonable range of 13%-14%.

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< p > < strong > < /strong > < a > href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp > > strong > combination > /strong > > /a > strong > policy.

< p > reporter: Although the liquidity in the first half of the year is abundant and the loan structure has been improved, the problem of high financing cost of SMEs still exists.

What is the solution to this problem? < /p >

< p > Sheng Songcheng: objectively speaking, the financing cost of our enterprises is not low or even higher.

The high cost of financing is caused by many factors.

Simply say two.

The first is related to our investment and financing system.

It should be said that China's savings rate is still relatively high, but it is gradually declining.

At the same time, our investment has not been reduced, and investment still needs capital.

The interest rate is fundamentally dependent on the supply and demand of funds, behind which is the relationship between investment and savings.

The second is that the proportion of direct financing is relatively low.

Indirect financing makes the capital demand of enterprises particularly exuberant. This is also a very important reason for our high interest rate.

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< p > to solve the problem of high financing cost, we need to solve this problem step by step in all aspects, including the combination of short and long term policies.

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< p > short term policy should be stable, well structured and precise.

Specifically, it includes increasing the amount of loans to support agriculture and small loans, reducing the deposit reserve ratio and so on, expanding direct financing, raising the proportion of foreign currency financing, using macro Prudential Management to guide credit investment, regulating private financing and promoting municipal bonds and other special bonds, and selectively breaking the rigid payment circle.

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< p > to solve the problem of expensive financing, we also need a long-term mechanism.

First, we should reform the investment and financing system and change the soft budget constraint; two, we should vigorously develop direct financing and gradually reduce the proportion of indirect financing; three, we should actively promote the marketization of interest rates.

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< p > < strong > monetary policy will remain stable < /strong > /p >

< p > reporter: in the first half of the year, market liquidity is relatively abundant. Will monetary policy tighten in the second half of the year? < /p >

< p > Sheng Songcheng: in the second half of this year, the central bank will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, flexibly apply various monetary policy tools, maintain moderate liquidity, promote the scale of social financing and the reasonable growth of money, improve and optimize the financing structure, and continue to increase support for the real economy.

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< p > under the condition that the total amount of credit money has been larger, the key is to adjust the credit structure and revitalize the stock rather than pursue the total expansion.

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< p > it is estimated that China's M2 growth rate will reach 13%-14% this year. The scale of social financing will be around 18 trillion and 500 billion yuan, and the new RMB loan will be around 9 trillion and 500 billion yuan.

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