Domestic Cotton Planting Area Further Reduced

< p > > according to the latest survey results of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > middle storage cotton < /a >, the actual cotton area in 2014 was 60 million 280 thousand mu, 1 million 50 thousand mu less than that in July, 10 million 340 thousand mu less than that in 2013, and a decrease of 15%. The total output of the country is 6 million 220 thousand tons this year, a decrease of 800 thousand tons compared with 2013, a decrease of 11%.

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< p > in addition, according to the research results of Breck consulting company, it is estimated that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is basically stable in the 2014/2015 year, and the cotton planting area in the mainland has dropped sharply. The total area has been reduced by 9%, and the cotton production in 2014/2015 is expected to be 6 million 150 thousand tons.

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< p > although a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > planting area < /a > and production shrinkage, under the shrinking consumption, the backlog of cotton stocks remained huge over the years.

China cotton information network statistics show that as of July 30th, the total amount of cotton stockpile put into operation was 10 million 371 thousand and 200 tons, with a total turnover of 2 million 305 thousand and 500 tons, with a turnover ratio of 22.23%.

Among them, 9 million 810 thousand tons of domestic cotton have been listed, with a total turnover of 2 million 169 thousand and 300 tons, with a turnover ratio of 22.11%.

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< p > cotton consumption has not improved at present.

According to Breck consulting company's survey report, in July, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile industry > /a > off-season characteristics were obvious, the enthusiasm of purchasing cotton yarn in the lower reaches was weakened, the operating rate of textile enterprises declined, and the limited production was widespread.

According to the feedback from some enterprises in the Yellow River and Yangtze River Basin, the overall starting rate of grey cloth is around 60%, and the volume of orders decreased sharply compared with the same period last year.

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< p > related links: < /p >

In the second half of the year, the domestic cotton market in China will face the policy adjustment of the target price straight subsidy rules and landing, and the new round of P throwing and storing.

We expect that the target price subsidy rules will be announced in August, which will have a neutral effect on the future cotton market.

In late July of this year, Xinjiang issued the notice on the implementation plan for verification of cotton planting area in the autonomous region (Trial Implementation), which indicates that the target price subsidy policy announced in 2014 and the rhythm of landing implementation are already approaching.

In addition, 9-10 months, domestic cotton will be listed on the market.

We believe that in order to effectively stabilize the price of new cotton, the target price straight subsidy rules will be issued in August.

In addition, based on the state's efforts to stabilize cotton prices, implement supporting measures to subsidize the textile enterprises in Xinjiang and control the new year's subsidy budget, plus the target price direct subsidy rules, we will consider that the announcement and landing of the rules will have a neutral impact on cotton market later.

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< p > it is estimated that 5 million 300 thousand tons of cotton will need to be released after the end of August, but will be delayed until the beginning of 2015.

In March 31, 2014, the storage capacity of the national reserve cotton should be 16 million tons.

By the end of July this year, the state's latest total of 2 million 300 thousand tons of dumping and storage.

If we estimate the daily turnover of 10 thousand tons per month in the last month of August, it is estimated that the total volume of new dumping will reach 2 million 500 thousand tons after the end of August 31, 2014.

Coupled with the first two rounds of 4 million 200 thousand tons of throwing reserves, it is estimated that the national three rounds of dumping and storage scale will total 6 million 700 thousand tons.

Then, excluding the 6 million 700 thousand tons sold, by the end of August, about 9 million 300 thousand tons of cotton stocks still need to be processed in the Treasury.

According to the normal year, the average inventory level in China is 4 million tons at the end of the year, so there are still about 5 million 300 thousand tons of cotton sold, which is similar to the output of 70% in the past year, and the pressure is still relatively large.

However, due to the main efforts of the relevant state organs in the second half of the year to focus on the implementation of direct subsidy rules, it is estimated that the probability of implementing the policy of dumping and storage will be relatively low at the same time.

Therefore, it is deduced that the possibility of re launching the dumping and storage work in the second half of this year is relatively low. It is estimated that the time will be extended to the beginning of next year or the peak season for downstream consumption.

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On the global side, the global cotton market in P continued to maintain a supply exceeding demand. China's peripheral supply and demand pattern mainly focused on the United States, while the United States and new cotton showed a balance of supply and demand in the whole. "2014/2015"

Based on the US Department of agriculture's regulation of cotton supply and demand in the past year, it is estimated that the probability of a reduction in the end of the US cotton futures inventory will be larger in the 8-9 month, which will certainly boost the global cotton price; while in the domestic sector, if the cotton throws are not implemented temporarily, the import chain ratio will decrease, and the new cotton production will be reduced. The cotton supply and demand in the second half of this year will be tightened up in the first half of this year. And after the impact of the cotton concentrated listing in the 10-11 month of this year, the domestic cotton price will be stable and stable.

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