The Target Price Subsidy Rules Should Be Promoted Steadily.

In the second half of the year, China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Cotton City < /a > will face the policy adjustment of the target price straight subsidy rules promulgated and landing, and the new round of dumping and storage of the country's P.

We expect that the target price subsidy rules will be announced in August, which will have a neutral effect on the future cotton market.

In late July of this year, Xinjiang issued the notice on the implementation plan for verification of cotton planting area in the autonomous region (Trial Implementation), which indicates that the target price subsidy policy announced in 2014 and the rhythm of landing implementation are already approaching.

In addition, 9-10 months, domestic cotton will be listed on the market.

We believe that in order to effectively stabilize the price of new cotton, the target price straight subsidy rules will be issued in August.

In addition, based on the state's efforts to stabilize cotton prices, implement supporting measures to subsidize the textile enterprises in Xinjiang and control the new year's subsidy budget, plus the target price direct subsidy rules, we will consider that the announcement and landing of the rules will have a neutral impact on cotton market later.

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< p > it is estimated that 5 million 300 thousand tons of cotton will still need to be released after the end of August, but the material "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> dumping reserve < /a > will be reopened or extended to the beginning of 2015.

In March 31, 2014, the storage capacity of the national reserve cotton should be 16 million tons.

By the end of July this year, the state's latest total of 2 million 300 thousand tons of dumping and storage.

If we estimate the daily turnover of 10 thousand tons per month in the last month of August, it is estimated that the total volume of new dumping will reach 2 million 500 thousand tons after the end of August 31, 2014.

Coupled with the first two rounds of 4 million 200 thousand tons of throwing reserves, it is estimated that the national three rounds of dumping and storage scale will total 6 million 700 thousand tons.

Then, excluding the 6 million 700 thousand tons sold, by the end of August, about 9 million 300 thousand tons of cotton stocks still need to be processed in the Treasury.

According to the normal year, the average inventory level in China is 4 million tons at the end of the year, so there are still about 5 million 300 thousand tons of cotton sold, which is similar to the output of 70% in the past year, and the pressure is still relatively large.

However, due to the main efforts of the relevant state organs in the second half of the year to focus on the implementation of direct subsidy rules, it is estimated that the probability of implementing the policy of dumping and storage will be relatively low at the same time.

Therefore, it is deduced that the possibility of re launching the dumping and storage work in the second half of this year is relatively low. It is estimated that the time will be extended to the beginning of next year or the peak season for downstream consumption.

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< p > global aspect, the global 2014/2015 a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Cotton City < /a > continues to maintain supply exceeding demand. China's peripheral supply and demand pattern mainly depends on the United States, while the US new cotton has a balance of supply and demand as a whole.

Based on the US Department of agriculture's regulation of cotton supply and demand in the past year, it is estimated that the probability of a reduction in the end of the US cotton futures inventory will be larger in the 8-9 month, which will certainly boost the global cotton price; while in the domestic sector, if the cotton throws are not implemented temporarily, the import chain ratio will decrease, and the new cotton production will be reduced. The cotton supply and demand in the second half of this year will be tightened up in the first half of this year. And after the impact of the cotton concentrated listing in the 10-11 month of this year, the domestic cotton price will be stable and stable.

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< p > internal cotton demand showed a slow rising trend due to the slow rise in consumption and the decrease in the substitution of competitive goods.

On the one hand, it is expected that the production and marketing of downstream textile enterprises will continue to maintain a slow upward trend in the second half of the year, and the demand for new cotton will be affected by policy changes and uncertainties. Enterprises will cautiously purchase, so its performance in the second half of the year will form a moderate suppression effect on domestic cotton prices. On the other hand, it is expected that domestic and foreign competitive products will effectively reverse the trend of high domestic cotton replacement, and it is expected to enhance the demand for new cotton in the lower reaches, and further boost the price formation.

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< p > in summary, the cotton target price straight subsidy rules are expected to be released in August, which will have a neutral effect on the future cotton market.

Although it is necessary to release the stored cotton, it will be postponed until the beginning of next year. The US cotton stocks will be lowered or the cotton supply will be reduced due to the anticipation of the drop in cotton reserves, imports and new cotton production.

Under the combined action of these three aspects, the supply and demand of domestic cotton market is expected to tighten in the second half of the year. Zheng cotton will show a trend of "rise to fall and then rise", and the bottom price of zhengmian price is expected to be 13500-14500 yuan / ton.

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