Policy Underpinning Power To Enhance Market Environment

The divergence between microeconomic data and macro data in P > June indicates that the strength and sustainability of the current round of economic improvement are weaker than before. In July, the economic and financial year-on-year data were lower than expected, confirming this judgement. The impetus of policy bottom is still strong, and the market continues to face upward environment.

On the economic front, the three quarter was affected by high base numbers, and the data was much harder than expected, but the ring ratio is still improving.

The policy will take 3-6 months from publication to effectiveness. The steady growth policy since the end of 3 will support the continuous improvement of the economy in the two or three quarter.

In terms of liquidity, prices remained stable in July. It is expected that there will not be a big rebound in the second half of the year, < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > CPI < /a > there will not be a big shift in monetary policy and relatively relaxed financial environment.

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< p > to maintain our judgement, policy, economy and liquidity are favorable, optimistic about the three quarter market performance.

In terms of industry allocation, two types of growth stocks will continue to be recommended. First, technology stocks with clear direction and larger space, information security, new energy vehicles, robots and 3D printing, intelligent life.

Second, steady growth of medicine and mass brand consumption.

The national security industry chain and the mixed ownership reform in developed areas are recommended on the theme allocation.

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In terms of policy, in August 14th, the general office of the State Council issued the guiding opinions on "taking measures to alleviate the problem of high financing costs of enterprises". It pointed out that the prudent monetary policy will continue to be implemented, and the combination of various monetary policy tools should be combined to maintain a steady and moderate liquidity, so as to create a good monetary environment for alleviating the high cost of financing for enterprises. P

The circular put forward that we should optimize the investment of basic currencies, appropriately increase the intensity of supporting agriculture, supporting small loans and rediscount, strive to readjust the structure and optimize the credit investment direction, so as to provide strong support for the key areas such as shantytowns, railways, services, energy conservation and environmental protection, and the weak links such as "three rural", < a href= "http: / / www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > small and micro enterprises < /a >.

According to the Ministry of finance data, the national fiscal revenue increased by 6.9% over the same period in July, down from the 8.8% growth rate last month.

The national fiscal expenditure increased by 9.6% compared with the same period in June, compared with the growth rate of 26.1% in May and 24.6% in May.

Under the background of the rising power of underpinning power, it is estimated that fiscal expenditure will increase in 8 and September.

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< p > July, economic < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > financial data < /a > growth rate lower than expected, the ring continued to improve.

In July, the added value of above scale industries increased by 9% in real terms, down 0.2% from June, and increased by 0.68% over the same period.

In July, generating capacity was 504 billion 800 million kwh, an increase of 3.3% over the same period last year.

Down 2.45% from June.

The growth rate of industrial added value and power generation also fell at the same time, indicating that the downward pressure on the three quarter is still there.

In terms of investment in fixed assets, in July, the total investment in fixed assets increased by 17% over the same period last year, down 0.3% from June, and grew by 1.27% over the same period.

According to the point of view, the rapid decline of real estate development investment is the main reason.

In July, the cumulative growth rate of real estate investment dropped to 13.7%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4% compared with June.

Among them, the proportion of real estate investment accounted for nearly 70% of residential investment increased by 13.3%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4%.

Due to the problem of overcapacity in traditional industries, the enthusiasm for investment in manufacturing industry is not high. In July, it increased by 14.65%.

Only the growth rate of infrastructure investment remained at a high level, with a cumulative growth rate of 22.61% in July.

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In terms of money and credit, the scale of social financing in July was 273 billion 100 million yuan, 1 trillion and 690 billion yuan and 546 billion yuan less than last month and the same period last year, a new low since October 2008.

In July, RMB loans increased by 385 billion 200 million yuan, or less than 314 billion 500 million yuan, a record low since December 2009.

At the end of 7, the balance of M2 was 119 trillion and 420 billion yuan, up 13.5% from the same period last year, the growth rate was 1.2 and 1 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year.

The central bank said that the fall of financial data in July was related to the cardinal effect, the "high inflation" in June this year, and the seasonal fluctuation of the data itself. The results of in-depth analysis show that the growth of monetary credit and social financing scale is still in a reasonable range, and the orientation of monetary policy "total stability and structural optimization" has not changed.

We believe that on the one hand, the financing demand of the financing side represented by real estate has been declining continuously. On the other hand, the rigid credit payment has led to a decline in the risk preference of commercial banks, and the supply of funds has also declined. The decline in supply and demand has led to a much lower than expected monetary and credit data in July.

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