Zhang Wei: Chaotic Situation, Chaotic Market.

< p > < strong > 1: < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > fundamentals < /a > analysis < /strong > /p >

< p > on Friday (August 15th), the dollar index was high in the morning market, and is now trading near 81.60.

Overnight, the exchange rate of non US currencies is changing.

As the number of people at the beginning of last week rose unexpectedly and reached a new high of six weeks, the US dollar experienced a sharp decline. But then the trend of non US currencies has been repeating the recent consistent process. European currencies continue to weaken, while commodity currencies remain strong.

Affected by the downturn in GDP data and inflation data released on Thursday, the euro fell again after a short-term rise, and is still within the recent range.

It is worth mentioning that on Thursday, the three geopolitical hotspots, including Ukraine, Russia, Palestine and Israel, and the internal disorder in Iraq, all showed signs of easing up to varying degrees. The related risk preference has rebounded, and the US stock market closed up.

The last trading day of the week will be welcomed in the coming days, including the UK's two quarter GDP correction, the US industrial output month rate July and the August University of Michigan consumer confidence index.

< /p >

< p > Putin's low-key Israeli Palestinian truce. The three major geopolitical hotspot temporary easing is one of the most important threads throughout the market this week. Many geopolitical situations have eased on Thursday, which has cooled the market's risk aversion.

International spot gold has been refreshed 1308.76 U.S. dollars / ounce low overnight, because Russian President Putin issued a moderate speech on the situation in Ukraine, so that the local tension cooling.

Russian President Putin said on Thursday that Russia will safeguard its own interests, but does not want to oppose the outside world.

Putin has been taking a tough stance on the Ukraine crisis for months. The above speech shows a tendency to conciliate.

Putin spoke to Russian ministers and congressmen in Crimea, and many people thought he would make a major statement on the Ukraine issue.

Crimea was originally Ukraine territory, and Russia annexed it this year.

< /p >

< p > but Putin's speech was very low-key and avoided using the irony of the West during the crisis.

The a href= "http://? www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Ukraine < /a > crisis led to the worst relationship between Russia and the West since the end of the cold war.

In addition to the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the cease-fire between Palestine and Israel is continuing.

Egypt's Middle East News Agency reported on Wednesday that the Palestinian representative attending talks on cease-fire in Cairo said on the night that Palestine and Israel agreed to extend the temporary cease-fire in Gaza Strip for another 5 days.

Ahmad said that the Palestinians and Israelis agreed to extend the temporary cease-fire for 5 days starting from 14 a.m. at the request of Egypt.

He said: "we need more time to talk about differences between the two sides."

On Thursday, Iraqi state television reported that Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki had decided to give up seeking re-election, saying he would support the appointment of President Masoum. He was appointed prime minister to maintain unity and stability in Iraq and to end the political stalemate.

Maliki will withdraw his complaint to the president at the beginning of this week.

This marks a relaxation of the domestic political chaos in Iraq.

Of course, for investors, the easing of the geopolitical situation is noteworthy, but the relevant risks can not be completely ignored.

On the one hand, the Russian and European sanctions war continues to escalate, and the Russian rescue team is still being rejected by Ukraine.

On the other hand, the current situation of Palestine and Israel is still unknown, and the future trend of the 37 day "blade protection operation" remains a mystery.

The market's new exploding point may still appear at any time.

The US dollar is still the first choice in the market. Next week, the global central bank's annual meeting will rebound. The US dollar rebounded from the earlier decline on Thursday. The trading volume was light and was boosted by the rise in US stocks.

Tensions between Ukraine and the Middle East eased.

< /p >

< p > the US 30 year bond auction demand strongly supports the rise in bond prices and pulls down the yield of government bonds, which analysts say supports the US dollar.

Kathy Lien, managing director of BK Asset Management, said: "the popularity of the market is that there are no other options other than US assets, so we see the rise in US Treasury bond prices, US stocks and the US dollar."

In general, the rise in the price of treasury bonds and the decline in yields on treasury bonds are bad for the US dollar because it means a decline in returns to investors.

But Lien said that if the rise in Treasury prices reflected strong demand for US assets, the rise in US Treasury bond prices could provide support for the US dollar. The 30 year US bond auction in the early afternoon was an example.

Earlier Thursday, the US dollar fell to its lowest level against the euro, as the number of unemployed Americans increased in the latest week.

< /p >

< p > U.S. retail sales < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" on Wednesday, sales data < /a > unexpected balance and early Thursday unemployment data consolidate the expectation of the Federal Reserve not rushing to raise interest rates.

However, many analysts said that despite the weak report on initial jobless claims, the outlook for the dollar is still brighter than the euro and yen, because Japan and the euro zone economy are still struggling.

At present, the eurozone economy, which has already been very weak, has been hit hard again, because Germany, the largest economy in the euro area, is suffering from the negative impact of the crisis in Russia and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Japan's economy, which is still in deep recession, has shrunk by 6.8% in the second quarter.

Some strategist expects us dollar to reach 109 by the end of this year.

< /p >

"The divergence of monetary policy between the United States and other industrial countries is still a major factor in supporting the US dollar," said P Commonwealth Foreign Exchange chief market analyst.

Next week will usher in a very important moment for the market. The annual meeting of the global central bank next Thursday (August 21st) will be held in Jackson Hole, Jackson, Wyoming, when the Federal Reserve will use this important stage to publicize its position.

Despite interviews with current and former Fed officials, we can see that Yellen and the Fed's core decision-makers are determined to avoid premature interest rate hike in order to avoid damaging the fragile American economy.

However, many hawkish officials continue to raise interest rates ahead of schedule, which still makes Yellen's position widely concerned.

< /p >

Brad, chairman of the Federal Reserve and Saint Louis Fed chairman, predicted in August 14th that they would start raising interest rates for the first time at the end of the first quarter of next year, which is earlier than some of the time predicted by some of the Federal Reserve's colleagues.

Brad pointed out that the current employment situation in the United States has greatly improved its position in the previous forecast of node goals. Therefore, many market investors are worried that the Federal Reserve will still slow down half the time when it expects to respond to inflation expectations, which is what the Fed has often made mistakes before.

Brad therefore said that raising interest rates at the end of the first quarter of 2015 was an ideal time point. He also predicted that the ultimate goal of the Fed's interest rate increase cycle would be to raise the federal funds rate to 4%.

Philadelphia's Federal Reserve Chairman, Mr. Proso, formally voted against the current liberal line at the last policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. In recent weeks, Dallas's Federal Reserve Chairman Fisher also expressed concern about the fact that the Fed's pace has lagged behind the inflation curve.

What will Yellen say next week, and how it will affect the US dollar trend? Maybe for the market, a new storm will come again.

< /p >

< p > < strong > Two: technical aspect analysis < /strong > < /p >

< p > gold to us dollar strategy: < /p >

< p > main strategy: 1318 near short, target 1310, stop loss 1321 < /p >

< p > Euro versus US dollar strategy: < /p >

< p > main strategy: 1.3400 near short, target 1.3350, stop loss 1.3420 < /p >

< p > pound versus US dollar strategy: < /p >

< p > main strategy: 1.6700 near short, target 1.6650, stop loss 1.6720 < /p >

< p > US dollar to Japanese yen strategy: < /p >

< p > main strategy: high throw and low suction in 102.30-102.60 interval, and stop loss by breaking position.

< /p >