Tan Yaling: Seeking Direction And Combination Of Exchange Rate

This week, the US dollar index in the foreign exchange market is stable. The basic level is concentrated at around 81.4. The change is small, mainly in the direction of the future direction. The rise of technology revision and the decline of environmental factors are the same as us, and the US dollar is looking for opportunities and conditions.

Therefore, the US dollar maintained a stable level of $1.33 against the euro for a week, and the main closing price range was only 20-30.

The US dollar exchange rate against the pound is the largest group of exchange rate fluctuations this week, and the exchange rate has dropped from 1.68 US dollars to US $1.66.

The US dollar exchange rate also showed a drop of 1.09 Canadian dollar to 1.08 Canadian dollar.

The US dollar has changed somewhat against the Australian dollar, with a range of 0.92-0.93 US dollars.

The US dollar remained stable at 0.84 US dollars against the New Zealand dollar.

The US dollar also maintained at 0.90 Swiss francs against the Swiss franc, while the US dollar remained 102 yen against the yen, and the Swiss franc and yen were generally concerned during the tense international situation, mainly because of the high liquidity of the two currencies.

In particular, the current currency exchange rate is rather serious from the economic fundamentals, but more concerned with international relations and market relations.

If Japan's economic data released this week has not shaken the yen exchange rate trend, even if the data contrast is too big, it has not disrupt the layout strategy.

Japan's economic growth in the first quarter was 6.1%, and the second quarter was -6.8% instead. It is very important to observe the complexity of exchange rate.

< /p >

< p > 1, < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Euro < /a > regional economic inaction is the key.

This week's impact on the foreign exchange market is that Germany's economic growth in the second quarter has shrunk by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter. The original expected level is to maintain low growth in the first quarter.

In addition, France's economic growth has basically stagnated.

The pessimistic data of these two important euro zone countries are not conducive to the stability and adjustment of the euro. However, in order to control the direction and mood of the market, the euro can not fall and the US dollar can not rise. It seems that there is strategy and planning behind this phenomenon.

On the one hand, the euro zone economy is not as clear as the US, and the strategy of the Central Bank of the euro area is in a dilemma. The price of the currency is bound to be under pressure. Currency depreciation is inevitable.

However, the competition between the US dollar and the euro is not difficult. The challenge of currency appreciation is far greater than the risk of < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > currency devaluation < /a >, and the purpose of leading the currency is very clear. The factors that the euro does not depreciate from are many factors of internal competition, and it is not so simple that it is not supported by itself.

In particular, the decline in the euro dollar exchange rate is mainly caused by investment, which worries that the European Central Bank will further relax its monetary policy and worry that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may impact the euro zone's largest economy, the German economy.

After all, Germany is Russia's largest trading partner in the EU. The EU announced last month that sanctions have restricted the export of modern petroleum equipment to Russia, and prohibited the sale of Russian machinery, electronics and other civilian products that may be used for military or national defense purposes.

The weaker fundamentals of the euro will lead to future risk accumulation.

< /p >

"P > 2, < a href=" http://? www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> Federal Reserve < /a > the uncertainty is the core.

The biggest focus this week is the willingness of the Fed chairman, Yellen, to fight inflation and not to face another recession.

It seems that the United States pays more attention to inflationary pressure and non economic growth.

However, the reality is that the United States is not facing inflation. Even if inflation index rises from 2% of the baseline, it is still justification for inflation.

In particular, the international gold price immediately dropped, more deviant from normality and normality, not the conclusion of real economy and theory.

On the one hand, the United States does not have inflationary pressure. The decline in gold prices is not one of the reasons. It is even more difficult to say that inflation has resisted inflation. This is the buzzword, but it is completely divorced from the fact of the current economic and market structure. How to assess the connection between the economic environment and the price is very complicated.

On the other hand, the US economic growth is strong and there is no fear of economic recession. We do not know whether the basis of this principle is normal. Although the market has been concerned about the Federal Reserve and Yellen's determination to avoid premature interest rate hikes to avoid damaging the fragile American economy, it is directly affecting the change and speculation of the gold price index.

The promise of the Fed chairman in the coming months will face a severe test. The Federal Reserve, Republican members of Congress, and possibly even the financial markets are exerting greater pressure on the Federal Reserve to recognize the increasing US economy and raise interest rates for the first time in more than 8 years.

After all, the current financial market is different from the situation before the financial crisis. The heavy blow of the financial market and economy after the Fed's interest rate increase is not enough. No matter what the scale and speed are quite different, what the Fed is doing is preparing, not choosing.

< /p >

< p > 3, the impact of sudden factors continues to deteriorate.

This week, Russian President Putin said Russia would defend its interests, but did not want to fight against the outside world.

Putin has been taking a tough stance on the Ukraine crisis for months. The above speech shows a tendency to conciliate.

But Putin's speech was very low-key and avoided using the irony of the West during the crisis.

The Ukraine crisis has led to a decline in relations between Russia and the west to the worst level since the end of the cold war, and the uncertainty in Ukraine and the Middle East has increased the volatility of global financial markets, including the decline in the S & P 500 index, the rise in US Treasury yields, and the rise and fall in gold prices.

Geopolitical tensions or attracting sporadic investment buying, but hedging assets are not attractive.

Especially in the largest gold consumption area, demand in Asia is still sluggish, and investors are also reducing their positions in the world's largest gold traded fund.

These geopolitical factors directly affect the trend of resource commodity prices and currency exchange rates.

< /p >

< p > it is expected that the short-term market variables are large and the direction is not clear. The willingness and environment of the appreciation of the US dollar will deviate from the environment. We will wait and see. The adjustment will be more prominent, but the combination of currencies will continue to play a role. The diversification of the US dollar index is worthy of attention, and the market direction is hard to decide.

< /p >