There Are Two Big Signals Hidden In The Media. A Shares Suggest A Reversal?

< p > first, it is too early to judge the economic growth rate down in the second half of the year in July, when a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Data < /a > weakens.

It should be noted that the government's desire for steady growth is still strong, for example, all localities are actively responding to the central request for steady growth and increasing investment.

It is estimated that the total planned investment of major projects in the provinces and cities has reached 6 trillion yuan this year, and the effectiveness of the policy has been effective: for example, the total investment of new projects in 1-7 months is 230398 billion yuan, up 14.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate has increased by 1 percentage points.

With the growth of total investment in the second half of the year, the fixed asset investment will maintain steady and rapid growth in the next few months.

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< p > Second, the central bank has not tightened the intention of "a href=" http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> monetary policy < /a >, and will continue to stabilize the relatively loose monetary policy in the second half of the year.

For example, when the central bank released the data in July, it repeatedly emphasized that the fall of financial data in July was related to the cardinal effect, the "higher inflation" in June this year, and the seasonal fluctuation of the data itself.

In fact, the growth of monetary credit and social financing scale is still in a reasonable range. If entering the early August, loans will basically maintain an increment of 300-500 billion yuan per day. It is estimated that the scale of monetary credit and social financing will continue to grow steadily in the future.

In addition, the State Council has recently issued guidelines for alleviating the high cost of corporate financing to create a better liquidity environment for economic recovery. These measures include: optimizing the investment of basic currencies, appropriately increasing the support for agriculture, supporting small loans and rediscount, focusing on adjusting the structure and optimizing credit investment, providing strong support for shantytowns, railways, < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > service industry < /a > energy saving and environmental protection, and other weak links such as "three rural" and small and micro enterprises. These policies will continue to encourage the central bank to increase the intensity of currency movements in the second half of the year.

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< p > Third, the profit effect has already appeared after the market has risen, which will attract more funds into the market.

According to the central bank's disclosure, the recent A stock market has warmed up. In July, the margin margin of the securities company increased by about 300 billion yuan. As the stimulus from Shanghai and Hong Kong will be launched, the capital flowing into China in the past two weeks is as high as 4 billion US dollars, which has reached a record high since 2000. According to the past experience of foreign capital flowing into the A share market, it will last 4-6 weeks, which will also help boost A shares.

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< p > the early stage of this round is the European interest rate cut and easing expectations, and the unique reason for the past two weeks' inflow of innovation is the Shanghai and Hong Kong pass and arbitrage demand.

At present, from the daily inflow volume and the ETF premium rate of Hongkong tracking A shares, the time of capital inflow has passed, but the inflow trend has not ended. It will last 4-6 weeks from the historical experience. It is clear that the logic of foreign capital inflow to push up A shares is still established.

And there are three main factors that affect the inflow increment of foreign capital in the future. One is that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at a certain point in the future, the two is the trend of economic data in the three quarter of China, and three is the process of internationalization of capital market.

Under the present circumstances, according to the Institutional Research Report, the pilot scale of Shanghai Stock Exchange is 300 billion RMB. Assuming that all of them are used up, assuming that QFII (including RQFII) is invested in A shares, the maximum scale of overseas investors' investment scale can reach 900 billion yuan, which is equivalent to about 3.5% of the total value of A shares, which is equivalent to 77% of the current fund investment A share market value.

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< p > since June, many overseas funds have begun to flow into Hong Kong stocks. The main reason is that a large number of Chinese blue chips are valued very low in the Hongkong market, which is quite attractive compared with the valuation level of Blue-chip company in the US stock market.

We believe that the US stocks will not be able to show a trend of decline for some time, but at the same time, it is also difficult to rise sharply. They will fluctuate for a long time at a high level. The overall fluctuation will not be too large and the impact on A shares will be small.

In contrast, the attractiveness of US stocks to capital is weakening, so overseas funds will continue to enter Hong Kong stocks, and may enter Hong Kong and Shanghai through A shares, especially the undervalued Blue-chip company, which will boost A shares.

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< p > Fourth, this year's two wave market has a high correlation with the restart of IPO, but the logical significance of the two links is quite different. The first wave is to expand the local hot spots by using the speculative psychology of the market, while the second wave is a substantial improvement of the investment mentality under the expectation of a steady and controllable supply expansion. At the same time, it coincides with the larger rebound of the Shanghai and Hong Kong through events. It can be said that although it is related to the restart of IPO, it is not a direct cause.

The main factors affecting subsequent IPO restart will depend on the intensity of market capital at that time.

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< p > although the short-term Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market has entered the adjustment and consolidation, there is no shortage of trading opportunities in the market.

Before the continuation of the view, we should firmly look at the blue chips of state-owned enterprises, especially those involving state-owned enterprises and national interests.

We may continue to pay attention to: aerospace, military, information security, health care, robotics and other sectors. At the same time, import substitution will face enormous development space.

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