Looking At The Trend Of RMB Exchange Rate From The Change Of Foreign Exchange Position

The RMB exchange rate in the first half of 2014 has attracted the attention of the market. Especially after mid February, the sudden decline of the RMB exchange rate has led to market turbulence and speculation.

On the one hand, the devaluation of the renminbi has changed the expectations and actions of the short-term market; on the other hand, it has also caused the market's concern about the slowdown in China's economy and the possible outflow of capital caused by debt pressure.

However, by collecting and sorting out the main foreign exchange positions in the first half of the year, we can see that the scale of foreign exchange inflow has increased steadily in the first half of this year, and the market's overall settlement intention is still strong.

In the context of continued easing of US dollar liquidity, if foreign exchange continues to flow in the second half of the year and superimposed with the US dollar position accumulated in the first half of the year, the continued growth of foreign exchange positions will continue to maintain a strong foreign exchange settlement in the domestic market. The imbalance in demand for foreign exchange sales is expected to push forward the spot exchange rate of RMB to continue to rebound.

But whether the renminbi is entering the new era? Appreciation cycle However, we should retain considerable caution. The reason is that the RMB appreciation expectation in the first half of the year had a sudden reversal. It could not exclude the central bank from the purpose of foreign exchange liquidity management to return to the market stage to buy US dollars, thus affecting the short-term market expectations, and again triggering the risk of the reverse fluctuation of the RMB. Therefore, from the whole year, there is little room for appreciation.

First half year RMB Spot exchange rate is phased. depreciation Quotations, but since mid July, the renminbi has rebounded sharply. At the beginning of last year, the market continued the expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB last year. The spot exchange rate of RMB remained stable in January.

However, in late February, the spot exchange rate of RMB changed rapidly from 6.06 to 6.26. By the end of April, the RMB exchange rate had dropped to near 6.26, and the largest depreciation rate in the year was over 3%.

Subsequently, the RMB exchange rate shocks in the 6.23 - 6.26 interval. After entering June, the RMB began to rebound, and the rate of RMB spot exchange rate rebounded significantly after mid July. As of mid August, the RMB exchange rate has risen to around 6.14, and the rebound rate in 7-8 months is almost 1%.