The RMB Exchange Rate Is A Foregone Conclusion.

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The recent RMB (6.153, 0.0019, 0.03%) exchange rate trend is basically in line with expectations. Generally speaking, economic growth level, monetary policy orientation and balance of payments status are the main factors affecting exchange rate. The exchange rate of RMB (6.153, 0.0019, 0.03%) in the second half of this year is a foregone conclusion.

First of all, under the action of a series of "micro stimulation", economic growth gradually stabilized. G D P grew 7.5% in the two quarter, up 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter. Although some of the data fell in July, the economic operation remained stable. The overall expectation of the market for economic stabilization should not change much. Secondly, in recent months, external demand has improved and exports have continued to rise. These become the basic factors driving the appreciation of RMB (6.153, 0.0019, 0.03%) in the near future. Moreover, the expected implementation of Shanghai and Hong Kong will start to stimulate the stock market. Recently, there seems to be a sign that capital outflows are slowing down and increasing inflows. The willingness of domestic enterprises and residents to raise their foreign exchange will rise and their willingness to sell will decline. In July, foreign exchange accounted for 37 billion 800 million yuan in financial institutions, which changed significantly from last month's negative growth. At the same time, foreign exchange deposits in July were only $15 billion. In the two quarter, the monthly foreign exchange deposits increased to 28 billion 800 million US dollars. It is estimated that the increase in capital inflows in August and the willingness of the economic entities to increase their foreign exchange will continue or even increase, thereby bringing pressure on the appreciation of the RMB (6.153, 0.0019, 0.03%).

As the RMB (6.153, 0.0019, 0.03%) exchange rate formation mechanism reform continues to push forward, and the elasticity gradually strengthens. In the case of China's economy difficult to reproduce double-digit high growth, the balance of payments surplus narrowed, and the RMB exchange rate is closer to the equilibrium level, the characteristics of the substitution of RMB exchange rate in the two way fluctuation and depreciation stage will become increasingly obvious. Looking ahead, the RMB exchange rate will change the overall operational pattern of the first half of the year and turn to the pressure of appreciation when the economic growth is generally stable, the export growth rate continues to rise and the stock market is going strong. What should be particularly concerned is that in the first half of the year, when the RMB depreciated strongly, the willingness of domestic enterprises and residents to settle their foreign exchange was not strong enough, and the banking system accumulated quite a lot. foreign exchange Deposits. By the end of 7 this year, the balance of foreign exchange deposits of financial institutions was US $608 billion 600 million, an increase of nearly US $160 billion compared with the beginning of the year, compared with the increase of last year's total of US $39 billion. With the improvement of export situation and the gradual increase of capital inflow, the appreciation of RMB in the second half of the year is expected to rise and relatively stable. Foreign exchange deposits in the banking system may increase to RMB, thus further increasing the pressure of RMB appreciation.

But at the same time, we should also realize that the data of investment and industrial added value in July showed that the foundation of economic stabilization is still not strong, and economic growth may be repeated. It is estimated that the growth rate of G D P in the three quarter will probably decrease compared with the two quarter, and the fourth quarter will rise slightly. Coupled with the downward pressure on investment and consumption in real estate, the potential risks in areas such as local government debt and "shadow banking" can not be ignored. The market is expected to show some degree of differentiation. Therefore, although the renminbi appreciates slightly against the US dollar in the second half of the year, volatility will still exist.

Exchange rate expectations are only one of the factors that affect international short-term capital flows. Capital market conditions, real estate market conditions and changes in the yield of financial products are all important factors. In the first half of the year, under the pressure of China's economic downward pressure, the strong exchange rate expectations of depreciation, the stock market downturn and the downward trend of real estate prices, domestic investment income declined, capital inflow slowed down, and the "hot money" inflow decreased significantly. In the first half of this year, a total of 820 billion yuan was added to foreign exchange, which was about 710000000000 less than that of the same period last year. In the second half of this year, economic growth has stabilized, the renminbi has expected appreciation, the stock market is likely to pick up stage, the attractiveness of investment income has expanded, and capital inflows will generally increase. But in real estate market Under the pattern of downward pressure and downward pressure on the economy, it is unlikely that "hot money" will enter China in large scale.