What Is The Future Of Easing Expectations For Reburning The Foreign Exchange Market?

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< p > on Wednesday (August 13th) in New York, the US dollar index rebounded rapidly at the beginning of the market because of the low retail sales data of the US in July, and then rebounded rapidly after the day. The end of the US dollar remained above 81.60.

On the same day, the impact of global geopolitical news had subsided, and the various economic data released by various countries had sung the leading role, which led to the global trend of "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "> /a" and "financial market".

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According to the data released by P Department of Commerce on Wednesday (August 13th), the US retail sales in July were not as good as expected, indicating that the US economy lost some growth momentum in the early third quarter.

Data show that US retail sales in July were flat, with an expected growth of 0.2%, while the former value was 0.2%.

In July, retail sales in the US showed little change, recording the worst performance in the last six months, because American consumers' demand for automobiles slowed down, and wage growth was not strong enough to suppress consumer purchasing power.

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< p > after the release of the data, the US dollar index once quickly bottomed out to 81.36 in the intraday low position, but since then it was quickly pulled up because investors cast their eyes on the GDP data of the two quarter of the euro area which will soon be released.

Data released on Wednesday showed that Italy's third largest economy in the euro area fell into recession again in the two quarter of this year. This has also cast a shadow over the GDP data prospects of the core countries of Europe, France and Germany, and the euro area as a whole. Under such circumstances, the ECB may have to be forced to resort to more easing measures. The expectation of market investors also pushed the euro back to the bottom of the 1.34 pass against the US dollar.

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Before P, the bad economic confidence data released by the German side on Tuesday (August 12th) have made the market speculate that the ECB may again relax its efforts and introduce more extraordinary measures such as quantitative easing (QE).

Not only the EU and Russia are in a bad mood, but investors worry about the economic outlook, and the farce of the Bank of the Holy Spirit of Portugal also confirms to investors that the European debt crisis has not really been far away. This has also reversed the upward trend of the euro against the dollar, which has dropped rapidly from two and a half years ago.

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< p > earlier, the statistics released by the European Union Statistics Bureau in August 13th showed that the industrial output rate in the euro area dropped by 0.3% in June, the second consecutive month decline, with an annual rate being flat, the weakest performance since August 2013.

The data further weakened the hope of economic recovery, and the euro zone began to be hit by the situation in Iraq, Ukraine and Gaza.

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"P" and the disheartened remarks released by French officials on Wednesday highlighted the uncertainty of the economic outlook of the euro area.

In a media interview Wednesday (August 13th), the ruling party leader of the socialist party, Comba Dailis (Jean-Christophe Cambadelis), pointed out that based on the current economic fundamentals, France is still unable to achieve the goal of a deficit of 3% of the gross domestic product (GDP) rate stipulated by the European Union in 2015, which is a foregone conclusion.

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< p > Comba Dailis pointed out that the problem now is no longer whether the government should consider abolishing the plan to achieve deficit control targets in 2015, but it is impossible for this goal to be realized.

He stressed that the EU's deficit control target was set before the outbreak of the economic crisis in 2008, but this goal has no practical significance in the current deflationary economic environment.

To achieve this goal, we need more time and at the expense of the growth of the real economy.

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< p > the French government has promised that the GDP data of the two quarter of this year will be released on Thursday (August 14th).

And all sectors now expect that the two quarter GDP growth in France will remain in a stagnant or even declining zone.

Earlier, the country's economy recorded zero growth in the first quarter.

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< p > and the British inflation report released earlier on Wednesday is also relatively pessimistic.

The Bank of England sharply lowered its forecast of wage growth and said that the pace of wage recovery is the key to determining the timing and pace of raising interest rates.

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< p > the Bank of England has cut this year's pay growth forecast by half to 1.25%, and is expected to rebound more strongly in 2015.

An hour ago, official data showed that the average annual salary in the second quarter of 2014 declined.

Although the Bank of England also expects the unemployment rate to fall more than in May, the central bank's estimate of strong economic growth and inflation is largely unchanged.

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< p > although the Bank of England still imply that it will raise interest rates most likely next February, ahead of the previous expectations, the pound still fell sharply against the US dollar in the context of weak salary growth expectations, because market investors believe that the relatively weak economic background may make the central bank's deflation prospect doubtful.

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< p > in addition, China's industrial output and fixed asset investment growth slowed unexpectedly in the early July, which made the economic recovery face risks. This also made the < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > investment < /a > began to guess whether the Chinese government would take further easing action later.

On the same day, Goldman Sachs also lowered the U.S. economic growth forecast for the rest of the year, doubting the prospect of when the Fed would raise interest rates, while the Fed's two officials were avoiding the policy outlook.

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"P >" when the influence of the political situation on the earth and the border dropped slightly, although the Russian practice of pporting "humanitarian aid" to Eastern Ukraine still made the West unhappy, the situation in Ukraine temporarily did not cause more waves. In the Middle East, Israel and Palestine have agreed to extend the cease-fire for another 5 days under the mediation of Egypt. The Iraqi Kurdish armed forces have successfully resisted the "Islamic state" armed attack and recovered some towns after receiving US arms aid, but the former Prime Minister Maliki still refused to resign, making the prospect of the situation still uncertain.

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