The Global Cotton Market's Imbalance Between Supply And Demand Is Aggravated, So We Need To Pay Close Attention To Domestic Policy Trends Later.

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Xiaobian of the network introduces to you that the global supply and demand imbalance of cotton market is aggravated, so we need to pay close attention to the domestic policy trend in the later stage.

Zhengmian 1501 contract is the first main contract after the cotton purchase and storage is straighten out, and more than 300 thousand hand positions indicate that the three year long cotton market investors reenter.

The contract began a round of more than 1000 points rebounding in August 4th. With a sharp fall last Monday, market confidence returned to pessimism, and prices continued to shrink for five consecutive days.

Under the combined force of high domestic cotton planting cost and global cotton supply and demand imbalance, the 1501 contract will fall into the 14000 - 15000 yuan / ton Interval Oscillation trend in the medium term.

In the new year, the mainland cotton seed scale will be deadlocked.

Though this year

The field purchase and storage is changed to direct subsidy, but the direct subsidy area is mainly Xinjiang, which does not benefit the mainland. Therefore, the new year cotton seed scale should be treated differently.

For the main producing area of Xinjiang, the government's target price of cotton direct subsidy is 19800 yuan / ton. If the price subsidy is applied instead of the "quota subsidy", cotton farmers need not worry too much about the fall of cotton prices.

However, at the end of August, the new flower scale is coming soon. The cotton direct subsidy rules have not been released yet. Any changes in the policy will lead to a change in the seed cotton purchase price, which will change the future expectation of cotton prices.

As far as the mainland is concerned, the lack of policy protection will lead to a stalemate in the early stage of seed cotton purchase, mainly due to the high cost of cotton planting in the mainland.

Generally speaking, the yield per unit area is 400 - 500 Jin / mu, the average cost per mu is around 1200 yuan, and the cost is higher in some areas.

At present, the price of national standard grade lint is 17250 yuan / ton, according to this price, the purchase price of standard grade seed cotton is about 3.6 yuan / kg, while the ginning factory should calculate the reasonable profit, and the opening price will be estimated at 3.3 to 3.4 yuan / Jin.

In this sense, the cotton growers in the mainland can only keep their money, and even lose money.

After all, "one can not beat a palm", and cotton price can reach the satisfaction of cotton farmers and buyout enterprises, and the acquisition can be carried out normally.

At the same time, we need to pay attention to the fact that the price of cotton seed and its subsequent trend will have a great impact on the formation of Zheng cotton warehouse receipt.

If futures prices are lower than spot prices, when cotton resources are "less than enough", industrial funds will enter the field to buy 1501 contracts and carry out "seed cotton virtual processing".

So a comprehensive view, the 1501 contract fell sharply to 14000 yuan / ton below is not in line with the reality.

In the August cotton supply and demand report released by the US Department of agriculture, although the global end of cotton inventory in 2014/2015 has been slightly reduced, the number is still as high as 22 million 879 thousand tons, while global consumption has increased by 1 percentage points. After 24 million 516 thousand tons, the overall inventory consumption is still higher than 93.32%.

The report forecasts that China's cotton futures end inventory will be 13 million 578 thousand tons in 2014/2015 and consumption is only 7 million 947 thousand tons, and most of the stocks will be closed to the state treasury by the government. The future dumping will lead to the heavy pressure of centralized supply.

From the perspective of textile demand, the situation is also not optimistic.

Since July this year, the proportion of daily cotton reserves has been 10% to 15%. Over 20% of the cases have been counted, and even the number of individual trading days has a single digit. This shows that the downstream demand of textile enterprises is shrinking.

Although the quality of cotton reserves is uneven, it is also a main reason for restricting the enthusiasm of enterprises to store and store. However, it is more obvious that enterprises are cautious in taking goods, and they will spend more time with them and will not prepare them in advance.

From China's yarn price index and

Cotton price index comparison trend, China's yarn prices all the way down, showing that the terminal consumer market is sluggish, inventory backlog, and imported cotton yarn price index is also all the way down, reflecting the yarn business, even in the face of internal and external yarn price difference of nearly 1000 yuan / ton temptation, according to the amount of consumption does not increase.

The widening of the internal and external yarn spreads since the beginning of July has exacerbated the weakness of internal yarn consumption.

The contradiction between supply and demand of global cotton is still increasing, and domestic cotton prices are hard to say.