Traders' Internal Worries And Difficulties' Rebound Of Yarn Price Expectation Disappears.

The cotton planting area in India cotton area has increased significantly, the total output of lint cotton is expected to reach 6 million 700 thousand tons in 2014/15, and the sales of cotton yarn in China's market is "not too hot and cold". The inbound volume has increased since late August and so on. Since the beginning of September, the FOB, CIF and the quotation of Customs quotas of Qingdao, Guangdong, Shanghai and Zhangjiagang have been reduced to varying degrees.

Earlier, due to insufficient supply, individual varieties quoted prices rose 100-200 yuan / ton of Pakistan cotton yarn "U-turn" down, C32S, C40S yarn dropped to 200-300 yuan / ton, and some early quotation is strong, the ICE main contract saw 68 cents / pound traders since September confidence has suddenly weakened, relatively large inventory of C21S, C32S knitting yarn and C40S woven yarn quotation reduced 300-500 yuan / ton, thus speeding up "de stock", the intention of recycling funds obvious.

The CIF quotations of India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and other real estate cotton yarn also loosened and slipped overall, and the decline of low count yarn was higher than that of combed yarn and high spun yarn.

A trader said that on September 8-10, India, Qingdao, Weifang, Zibo and Jiangsu Changzhou and other places India big factory C32S A+ yarn, C32S B yarn CIF quoted price approximately 3.10-3.13 dollar / kilogram, 3-3.05 dollar / kilogram, but C32S and C21S Vietnam brand yarn quoted price concentrates in 3.06-3.10 dollar / kilogram, the 2.82-2.85 dollar / kilogram, Pakistan Pakistan gauze, the gauze price quotation mainly concentrates in the US dollar / kilogram, the US dollar / kilogram, compared to the middle and late 8 month to reduce US dollar / kilogram, moreover Vietnam and Indonesia equal number of cotton yarn quotation has gradually with the India big factory yarn, while the Pakistan, Thailand and so on cotton price quotation is more and more "dragged behind".

　　對于進口棉紗價格“跌跌不休”的原因，業內分析原因集中在：1、2014/15年度美棉產量因天氣幾近完美而不斷調增，印度棉區則是面積、產量“雙豐收”，全球供需差距拉大，再加上創歷史新高的期末庫存，ICE期貨、外棉遠月合約現貨報價均大幅下挫，在ICE主力跌破65美分后，EMOT M級美棉報價僅72-73美分/磅(12/1/2月船期)，對原料成本至少下調5美分/磅以上的預期使紗價不得不應聲下滑，9月10日中國主港印度棉S-6的CIF報價雖然仍高達81.2-81.5美分/磅，但清關S-6的人民幣報價僅16200-16300元/噸;2、中國市場對進口棉紗的需求踩“急剎車”，詢盤、簽約熱情迅速降溫，特別是對印度紗、巴紗和越南紗9/10月份船貨的下單積極性出現較大范圍的回落，主要原因是隨棉紡織企業、貿易商對9、10月份國內棉花現貨價大幅下跌的預期增強，而8月份以來低支紗的產銷形勢要好于高支紗

、精梳紗，利潤情況也全面回暖，中小棉紡廠的開機率逐漸恢復，山東、江蘇、河南、河北等地小紗廠復工率達到50%以上，對C40S以下棉紗的供貨量全面回升;3、據統計，截止9月中旬，青島、廣州、張家港、上海、寧波、天津等港口保稅或已清關外紗的數量約8.2萬噸，較8月中旬至少增長0.5萬噸以上，而且仍有大量的東南亞、中亞棉紗及土耳其、墨西哥和非洲氣流紡紗正源源不斷地運抵中國主港，預計9、10月份外紗庫存壓力將繼續上升，其中9月下旬港口外紗數量或突破9萬噸，與之形成鮮明對比的是保稅外紗和已清關印巴、印尼、越南等棉紗出貨非常緩慢，個別高支品種甚至開始滯銷，進口商、中間商的恐慌情緒明顯上升，雖未形成較大規模的拋貨降價行為，但棉紗市場可以用“風聲鶴唳、草木皆兵”來形容。

Although international and domestic

Market futures and spot prices remain stable and even rebound, but most of India and Pakistan and Southeast Asian cotton mills and exporters generally believe that the drop in cotton yarn prices is very limited. Especially when India yarn increases its minimum purchase price of 2014/15 seed in the textile sector, it is more obvious than the US cotton and West African cotton.

On the 9-10 th of September, the CIF quotations of S-6 SM1-5/32 "and" S-6 SM1-1/8 "arrived at 1/2/3 months from a large international cotton trader, respectively, were 74.20-74.25 cents / pound, 73.60-73.75 cents / pound, only higher than the lowest sales value 0.75-1.75 cents / pound, indicating that the decline of India cotton has been close to"

"But the difference between September and S-6 spot in India is still 8-9 cents / pound.

Some traders said that if buyers specify S-6 in Gujarat, they need to increase their price by 1 cents / pound on the basis of quotation.

In addition, 2012 and 2013 China's imports of India's cotton yarn accounted for more than 50% of India's cotton yarn exports. However, since 2014, the share of India yarn in the Chinese market has been declining. Turkey, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Thailand and even Africa have spun up the market share of India and Pakistan cotton yarn. The India cotton mill has vigorously opened up markets in Europe, America, East Asia and Africa. Most of the cotton mills are in a state of balance, and some large, stable and timely cotton spinning orders are even in early November.

5-10 September, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong,

In other places, A+ grade India and Indonesia (higher cotton quality and poor stability of product quality) the RMB quoted price of C21S, C32S and C40S yarn is concentrated at 21000-21200 yuan / ton, 23500-23800 yuan / ton, 24500-24800 yuan / ton, C21S yarn falls 100-200 yuan / ton, and the surface price difference of cotton yarn with the same number is about 300-500 yuan / ton, but because of the existence of net settlement and LC90 days, the competitiveness of imported cotton yarn is still strong.

Some traders said that the purchase of yarn in Vietnam, Indonesia and Uzbekistan is just like "gambling". Sometimes the yarn quality is very good, reaching A+, and the strength, CV value and other indexes are higher than that of India yarn and domestic cotton mill. Sometimes the cotton yarn can not be used at all, the strength is not enough, the neps are too much or the 100 meter strong head rate is seriously exceeded. Most of the cotton mills apply for third party notarization inspection, so that there are more cases of arbitration and claim.

In recent days, market rumors have come to reduce the impact of low grade yarn on Chinese small and medium textile enterprises and traders. The departments concerned or increase restrictions on the import of cotton yarns, do not rule out a certain period of time not to allow customs clearance, increase import tariffs of cotton yarn, and even adopt import quotas, such as imported cotton, and so on, to help small and medium-sized cotton mills and cloth factories to increase the starting rate and go back to the right track of production and marketing.