Hai Lan'S Home: Positioning Corresponds To Changes In Consumer Demand, Performance Growth Is High Certainty.

Positioning the men's clothing market at a fair price, corresponding to the change of consumption demand.

Hai Lan's home is located in three or four line parity business.

Market, the three advantages make the company in the apparel industry downturn in the downturn can get beyond the growth of the industry: (1) low price, high cost performance, low rate (2.5 times times), in line with the background of economic weakness, the consumption demand from the pursuit of brand to the pursuit of cost-effective consumers need to change; (2) the three or four line market capacity is large, can open a lot of stores, different from the second tier market extension expansion marginal effect has gradually declined, the three or four line market opening marginal effect is still high; meanwhile, the business men's clothing market environment is more relaxed; (3) three or four line men's clothing production scale is large, which is conducive to reduce costs, and provide a low rate of possibility.

It is difficult to copy the unique mode through upstream and downstream.

Take the "platform" business mode: (1) supply side: the company can return goods to the supply side, avoiding inventory risk; (2) terminal: the franchisee only plays the role of financial investor, only responsible for opening shop and personnel wages, not responsible for store management, sales revenue is divided into proportion and franchisee; goods are distributed by the company headquarters.

This mode can not only make use of franchisee's capital and tax advantages, but also control the terminal by direct battalion. Upstream can return goods to suppliers, avoiding the biggest risk of clothing brand - inventory risk.

We believe that Hai Lan mode is hard to replicate: (1) the industry background can not be the same: during the overcapacity period, the supplier will grow along with the sea Lan's home from small to large. (2) other brands are high in rate, the order quantity is insufficient and the suppliers will bargain. (3) the cooperation between the suppliers and the Hai Lan home is slow, but the profit is better.

Let's take advantage of growth and seize the share.

The company experienced a stock crisis in the 12 year of the year. Due to improper design, the terminal sold out rate was only 30-40% at a time, but then the company carried out design adjustment and inventory processing.

During the winter period, it gained the trend of growth and grabbed the market share of other men's clothing (12 in the summer, 45% in the summer and 75% in 13 years).

The company has a high absolute inventory and a low turnover rate.

14Q1 stock 5 billion 800 million, inventory turnover 0.52 times.

The company is equivalent to the "consignment" mode, which can be returned to the supplier. Therefore, although the inventory is still reflected in the company's statements, the actual inventory risk has been pferred; on the other hand, the company's products are mainly based on the basic funds, and can be scrolled for two quarters a year. Therefore, even if the inventory turnover rate is low, the inventory risk is not large.

The contribution of future performance depends on expansion, growth and compression of channel profits.

The company's future high performance growth mainly comes from: (1) extension expansion (14 year plan opening 600 new homes, growth 21%); (2) same store growth, on the one hand, from the area promotion (600 new stores in 100 300 or more, at least 200 large stores; single store area increased by 20%), on the other hand, from the preemptive share sales growth; (3) adjust the franchisee split plan, enhance the proportion of the company, increase gross margin.

It is predicted that the EPS will be 0.5, 0.67 and 0.85 yuan in 14-16 years, buying rating, target price 12.5 yuan, corresponding to 14 PE25 times.

Risk hint: the sales rate of terminal is reduced, the terminal management capability is insufficient, the design capability is insufficient, and the risk of franchisee and supplier holdings is concentrated.