Chen Jingquan: The Market Lacks Stimulation.

Yesterday, the exchange market continued the pattern of turbulence. The trend of non US currencies was divided. The European system was mainly based on shocks. In the case of a slight easing of the Scotland crisis, sterling was in a weaker position, while commodity currencies remained relatively weak. The Australian dollar further expanded its decline after breaking 0.9210, while the US and Japan's upward trend stood firm and 107 continued to advance to 108.5.

On the stock market, the European and American stock markets basically maintained the concussion of the flat, gold continued to fall, crude oil showed a sharp pullback.

European data is still slow to pick up, but after the announcement of the ABS debt purchase this month, the ECB returned to a conservative state. After announcing the European Central Bank's monthly report yesterday, Delagi once again stressed the role of ABS and TLTOR in raising the market at the same time. At the same time, it began to appeal to the governments of the euro area countries to expand public investment in the case of capital allowability. We can understand this behavior as a result of the limited role of the European Central Bank and the need for better administration in order to achieve the limit of monetary policy. But if the euro zone governments can not effectively cooperate, we can foresee that even if the European Central Bank adopts a radical and loose monetary policy, the recovery of the euro area economy will still be difficult to achieve the expected recovery of the market.

Technical brief recommendations:

Euro versus US dollar:

The euro narrowed yesterday, becoming the smallest in the trading session this Thursday, and the narrowing of the wave indicates that there is a chance of a change in the current market.

In yesterday's analysis, we mentioned that the current trend of the euro is very similar to that of the last week of August. At present, the downward drag of 1.2900 is quite important. If we finally fall within days after the four consecutive trading days, then the acceleration of the euro downward will be worth our follow-up.

Today's thinking is consistent with yesterday.

Sterling yesterday, in the callback process, it was close to 1.6300 of the daily uplink resistance price, but it still failed to break through effectively. Although this week is at a high level, further breakthroughs are needed or greater momentum is needed to push ahead. If the situation falls below 1.6200, the short term will accelerate again. Therefore, we can take a wait-and-see attitude in the sterling trade. If it is involved, it will be only suitable for light warehouse.

Yesterday's early callback, the Aussie dollar tested very well with 0.9210 of the price. After the rundown, yesterday's empty list has entered. Now we hold this blank temporarily before the 0.8900 test. Yesterday, we emphasized that the resistance of 0.9210 was formed in five months. Once the drop is down, it is quite reasonable from the point of view of theory.

Yesterday's overdraft of gold again confirmed that 1240 had broken down, and there was a considerable opportunity to accelerate the downlink. This requires investors to pay special attention to it. We must be careful not to easily try to catch the bottom. In the face of such a time of Friday, gold is likely to form a new outbreak. In a radical case, 1180 will arrive in a very short number of pactions.

At present, we continue to hold the stop loss to the top 1250.