A Shares Rebound Or Fall Into The Air Battle

Some agencies have pointed out that the current A share is cruel data reality and reform is expected to fight, this round of rebound is likely to enter the air battle, and even does not rule out the rush to fall.

However, there are three kinds of stocks that are benefiting from the reform of state-owned enterprises, steady growth policy, and part of the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong.

The latest data from other departments show that

Macroeconomic fundamentals fluctuated considerably.

In August, the added value of above scale industries increased by 6.9%, much lower than the median of the survey, 8.8%, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 11.9% in August, and the fixed asset investment grew 16.5% in 1~8 months, which was lower than the estimated 12.1% and 16.9% respectively.

Industrial added value grew at a low level of nearly six years, and fixed asset investment growth also reached its lowest level in nearly 14 years.

Meanwhile, the growth rate of industrial added value dropped unexpectedly to 6.9% in August, and the negative growth of electricity generation -2.2% was much lower than expected.

Yang Chao, an analyst at Qilu Securities, said that in addition to the dislocation of the Spring Festival in 1 and February, the electricity generation decreased after the stimulus in 2009.

Ajian securities Hou Yingmin said that although some of the data fluctuated year by year from the high base number of the same period last year, on the other hand, it was also due to the downward pressure on the economy.

Gao Shanwen, chief economist at Anxin securities, pointed out that, in view of the end of the economic stall and the creation of active credit, the view of the stock market has shifted to prudence.

Fundamentals: GDP will be only 7.2% in the 3 quarter?

After a series of disadvantaged economic data released over the weekend, Nomura reduced China's GDP growth rate to 7.2% in the 3 quarter.

Coincidentally, Shen Jianguang, managing director of Mizuho Securities, also believes that the global economic uncertainty has made the export rebounding face greater challenges. Because of the decline in real estate, fixed asset investment can not play a key role in stabilizing growth. It is expected that the GDP will fall sharply to 7.2% in the three quarter.

Shen Jianguang believes that the most worrying thing at present is investment.

Fixed asset investment fell to 16.5% in 1~8 months, less than 1 percentage points of the year's target, the lowest since February 2002.

Guo Tongxin, an expert of the National Bureau of statistics, admitted that the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large.

There are also concerns about the capital outflow as a result of our poor economic growth expectations.

Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of communications, said: "the recent poor performance of real economic data is not conducive to capital inflow. It is expected that FDI will continue to decline in the past few months in September, and the absolute amount may further fall to about $7 billion."

Liu Ligang, chief economist of Australia New Bank, believes that if we want to achieve 7.5% growth, we must maintain the growth rate of industrial growth at 9%, but only 6.9% in August.

If there is no effective policy to relax, it will be difficult to achieve the 7.5% growth target this year.

Policy aspect: Quarterly deposit rate of 50 basis points?

Shen Jianguang believes that at present, only the introduction of targeted interest rate cuts and targeted reduction of the role of limited, a new round of quasi - cut, interest rates to expand the scope of the imminent, especially for the first set of mortgage loans.

Nomura expects that the central bank will reduce the reserve requirement ratio of banks by 50 basis points in each quarter from the 3 quarter of 2014 to the 4 quarter of 2015.

However, Anxin strategy reminds us that this year's employment targets have basically been completed, and there is little room for policy easing in the short term.