Ye Tan: Who Will Be Surprised By The Rise Of The US Dollar Index?

The dollar index rose mainly in the euro index, and the euro / dollar hit a 22 month low.

The European Central Bank [micro-blog] continues to implement loose monetary policy, and the United States has closed the loose door, wondering when to raise interest rates, and the US dollar is on the offensive.

The US dollar index has soared, like bombs blowing around the trenches of China's economy.

China's economy is facing serious challenges.

If the RMB can not maintain a clear and stable expectation in the future, it means that China's economy is expected to go down, the outflow of capital will increase, and the real estate market will be challenged.

For a long time before the financial crisis, China adhered to the export oriented economic policy and maintained the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar.

Because of the large number of foreign exchange settlement, we have to implement loose monetary policy in China, resulting in a decline in real purchasing power of the currency and stimulating the real estate market to keep rising.

As a result, the real purchasing power of money continues to decline, and the prices of capital products continue to rise (except stocks).

Since May this year, the US dollar has maintained a strong position. The RMB exchange rate has declined against the US dollar from the end of last year to March this year, and then rose with the rise of the US dollar index and experienced the roller coaster market.

In September 26th, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.1370, an increase of 93 basis points over the previous trading day, a record high of more than six months, and a 135 basis point appreciation in the week.

The strength of the RMB exchange rate is mainly due to the small fluctuation range, so it has to follow the trend of the US dollar.

Reuters reported that some foreign traders considered the result of the Centralized Settlement of the Alibaba [micro-blog] after the financing of the US stock market. Others believe that the central bank is pleased to see its success. In the face of the huge fluctuations in the global exchange rate market, the Central Bank of China hopes to demonstrate the stability of the RMB exchange rate.

China's domestic monetary structural tensions have not been alleviated, and the real exchange rate has risen sharply and the volatile market has been adverse to the price of the products, especially the real estate market.

Policy has to further relax, recently, the central bank and major commercial banks will release restrictions on loans, adjust the first suite of standards and other news lingering. Although no formal announcement has yet been made, but mortgage loans can not be tighter than now, will be more clear expectations.

Those who hope that the RMB exchange rate will appreciate significantly is a theorist who does not know the truth.

Facts have proved that the current RMB exchange rate is already unaffordable for China's economy.

China's economy has indeed made great progress, but the quality of growth is far less than what it looks like.

The bull market let the gold buying mothers set their cards deep. Fortunately, they stopped the pace of buying gold in time and regarded a small amount of spot gold as a means of asset allocation.

In September 26th, Commerzbank issued a report that gold imports from Hongkong fell to a low level in more than 3 years in August, and demand for Chinese mothers was weak.

The net import of gold from Hongkong has reached 497 tonnes this year, down 33% from the same period last year.

Even if demand increases in the four quarter, there will still be a big gap compared to last year.

Dollar and

Highly correlated, the better the US economy, the higher the US dollar index and the lower the gold price.

The US GDP recorded an annual average of 4.6% in the two quarter, higher than the previous value of 4.2%, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2011.

In the two quarter of the United States, the core personal consumption expenditure, the price index, the quarterly final rate (excluding food and energy) recorded 2%, and gold hit a 8 month low.

Although the US service industry purchasing managers' index and durable consumer goods orders have fallen sharply, these data can not be obliterated. So far, compared with Europe, Britain or Japan and China, the economic situation of the United States is the best relative to all neighboring neighbors.

Capital and talent are flowing in, and innovative enterprises are developing.

Continue to play tricks. Global markets continue to rise regardless of the sluggish economy. Since the end of June, benchmark stocks from Ireland to Holland and New Zealand have risen by more than 2%.

The A share market is more eye-catching and the game is very skillful.

The Central Bank of China has to relax its currency and lower interest rates. The essence is that the previous tightening is to relax the space at the critical moment.

As the real economy exposes the black hole of poor quality, the central bank finally has to issue money.

Reform makes way for survival, but without reform, the living space will be narrow and difficult.