Experts: Fourth Quarter GDP Growth Is Expected To Stabilize To 7.4%

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size reached 3 trillion and 833 billion 40 million yuan in 1-8 months, an increase of 10% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 1.7 percentage points over 1-7 months. Among them, the total profit in August was 482 billion 560 million yuan, down 0.6% compared to the same period last year. Analysts believe that due to weaker domestic demand, the three quarter economic growth is expected to be lower than the two quarter, fourth quarter economic growth will continue to bear pressure. It is expected that the policy of regulation and control will continue to focus on directional easing, and reduce the tax, reduce the cost of capital and optimize the investment structure.

　　 The three quarter Gross domestic product The growth rate is expected to be around 7.1%.

Analysts believe that the growth rate of industrial profits in August has dropped markedly. The main reasons include the weak market demand, the increase in the price of factory products, the high unit cost and high cost, and the high base in the same period last year.

For the three quarter economic data, Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS Securities, expects GDP growth to be around 7.1%.

Wang Tao pointed out that the main reason for the economic slowdown is the decline in real estate investment growth. The current round of real estate cycle is different from the past. The main reason is that the supply of real estate has exceeded the actual demand. The pressure of inventory pressure directly leads to the reduction of new and start-up projects, and the demand for downstream industries decreases accordingly. Although the new urbanization will bring new demand for real estate, it is not expected to be too high.

　　 Steady growth policy Expected increase in overweight

Looking ahead to the four quarter and the future economic trend, Wang Tao predicts that the fourth quarter GDP growth will be 6.9%, and next year's economic growth target may be reduced to about 7%. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, predicts that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to stabilize to 7.4%.

For macroeconomic regulation and control policy, Wang Tao believes that it is necessary to implement a comprehensive interest rate cut before the end of the year. At present, price regulation is better than quantitative regulation. Although the reduction in money supply can increase the supply of money, the structural reform has not yet been completed, which can not effectively reduce the cost of financing. Moreover, the current stock size of money is not small. From the employment indicators, the rate cut policy is expected to improve. Benefiting from strong external demand, HSBC's Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was initially 50.5 in September, slightly higher than the final value in August. Because of weak domestic demand, the employment index has not performed well.

Analysts expect that the next step of steady growth policy will be more moderate in demand management, and greater in supply management, including vigorously promoting growth promoting reforms, such as financial reform, investment and financing system reform, increasing structural tax cuts and stimulating the vitality of the real economy.

Number theory

　　 Industrial Enterprise Profit has seen negative growth for the first time in two years.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the total profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size reached 482 billion 560 million yuan in August, down 0.6% from the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 14.1 percentage points compared with July, the first time negative growth occurred after August 2012. From January to August, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 10%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.7 percentage points from January to July.

Compared with July, the industrial profit growth rate dropped significantly in August. He Ping, the Industrial Statistics Department of the National Bureau of statistics, thought there were five reasons: first, the industrial production and sales growth slowed down. Above scale industrial added value increased by 6.9% over the same period, the growth rate dropped 2.1 percentage points from July, and the main business income increased by 4.7% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 4.7 percentage points over July. Secondly, unit costs and expenses will rise and fall. Thirdly, the growth rate of investment income has declined. Fourth, steel, chemical, electronics and other industries profit growth declined significantly. Finally, the base was high last year.