Can A Shares Continue To Write "Lian Yang"?

Capital side: loose interest rate environment continues to bring dividends to A shares.

A shares in 2013 were repeatedly hit by "tight money".

Since 2014, liquidity seems to be no longer a stock market puzzle.

Behind the Shanghai stock index "monthly line five plus Yang", relatively loose capital side provides considerable support.

Guotai Junan Securities recently issued a report that the social risk-free interest rate has declined, and the effective drop in external fund prices will push capital into the standardized assets.

The current loose interest rate environment has been formed, and the A share market will continue to enjoy its "dividends".

In addition to cost reduction and risk appetite to attract lots of foreign funds, A shares will have more predictable and predictable incremental funding in the future.

On the one hand, "Shanghai Hong Kong Tong" was set to start in October, with a daily quota of 13 billion yuan per day in Shanghai Stock Exchange, which is close to 10% of the average daily volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange in August.

On the other hand, multi-channel long-term capital market shows signs of acceleration.

According to media reports, the Ministry of human resources and social security recently issued a notice calling for a pilot scale assessment of the safety, profitability and liquidity of the social security fund assets.

This is also seen by the industry as a positive sign of "pension market entry".

After the introduction of the "ten new countries" in August this year, the industry expects that the size of the A fund will increase in the future.

As early as the first half of last year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission responsible person has publicly stated that the relevant preparatory work for the nationwide housing provident fund market has started, which means that huge insurance funds and provident fund are also expected to become one of the important sources of incremental capital for A shares.

For A shares, which are always sensitive to policy, the upward trend of the past few months has also come from the promotion of multidisciplinary and all-round reforms.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, "Shanghai and Hong Kong through" and "Fourth Plenary Session" are undoubtedly the two highlights of A share policy.

9 at the end of the month,

The stock exchange officially released

A series of documents, such as the pilot scheme, indicate that the open policy that attracts worldwide attention has a complete system.

Li Xiaojia, President of the Hongkong stock exchange, also said that "Shanghai and Hong Kong through" arrangements will not be changed because of individual events in Hongkong.

Although the amount of "300 billion yuan" of Shanghai and Hong Kong accounts for less than 2% of the total market value of the Shanghai stock market, the positive impact on the A share should not be underestimated if the target is all large blue chips and overseas funds have long-term investment characteristics.

Foreign capital has a strong interest in the A shares entering the "Shanghai Hong Kong Tong" era, and can be seen from the recent trend of QFII.

According to the data released by the State Administration of foreign exchange in September 26th, QFII increased by 2 billion 537 million US dollars in September on the basis of positive growth for several months.

At present, a total of 256 QFII total investment amount of $62 billion 211 million.

Insiders predict that under the "Shanghai Hong Kong Tong" effect, it is estimated that the size of foreign investors holding A shares will be close to 10% of their free market value at the end of next year.

The Chinese Communist Party, which will be held in October, also raised more expectations for the market in the fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee.

Agencies generally believe that as the main topic of the fourth plenary session, "rule by law" is of great significance to the stock market.

From the view of CICC, "governing the country according to law" can reduce the uncertainty of the business environment and reduce the risk premium of Chinese assets.