Can The A Share Be "Even Yang" Under The Three Driving Factors Of The Stock Market?

Here world Clothing and shoes Xiaobian network to introduce the three driving factors are uneven A shares can continue to write "Lian Yang" situation?

From May to September, the Shanghai composite index achieved a long term "five consecutive months". This also allows investors to imagine the upcoming October market.

In the context of relatively abundant capital and bright policies, the fundamentals are still not optimistic. Three major drivers are uneven, can A shares continue to write "Lian Yang"?

Capital side: loose interest rate environment continues to bring dividends to A shares.

A shares in 2013 were repeatedly hit by "tight money". Since 2014, liquidity seems to be no longer a stock market puzzle. Behind the Shanghai stock index "monthly line five plus Yang", relatively loose capital side provides considerable support.

Guotai Junan Securities recently issued a report that the social risk-free interest rate has declined, and the effective drop in external fund prices will push capital into the standardized assets. The current loose interest rate environment has been formed, and the A share market will continue to enjoy its "dividends".

In addition to cost reduction and risk appetite to attract lots of foreign funds, A shares will have more predictable and predictable incremental funding in the future.

On the one hand, the "Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong" was finalized in October. At the initial stage of the pilot, Shanghai Stock Exchange reached a daily quota of 13 billion yuan, which is close to 10% of the average daily turnover of Shanghai Stock Exchange in August.

On the other hand, multi-channel long-term capital market shows signs of acceleration. According to media reports, the Ministry of human resources and social security recently issued a notice calling for a pilot scale assessment of the safety, profitability and liquidity of the social security fund assets. This is also seen by the industry as a positive sign of "pension market entry".

After the introduction of the "ten new countries" in August this year, the industry expects that the size of the A fund will increase in the future. As early as the first half of last year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission responsible person has publicly stated that the relevant preparatory work for the nationwide housing provident fund market has started, which means that huge insurance funds and provident fund are also expected to become one of the important sources of incremental capital for A shares.

　　 Policy aspect: "Shanghai and Hong Kong through" and "Fourth Plenary Session" to become bright spots

For A shares, which are always sensitive to policy, the upward trend of the past few months has also come from the promotion of multidisciplinary and all-round reforms.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, "Shanghai and Hong Kong through" and "Fourth Plenary Session" are undoubtedly the two highlights of A share policy.

At the end of 9, the Shanghai Stock Exchange formally issued a series of documents, such as "Shanghai and Hong Kong through pilot scheme", marking that this open policy that attracts worldwide attention has a complete system. Li Xiaojia, President of the Hongkong stock exchange, also said that "Shanghai and Hong Kong through" arrangements will not be changed because of individual events in Hongkong.

Although the amount of "300 billion yuan" of Shanghai and Hong Kong accounts for less than 2% of the total market value of the Shanghai stock market, the positive impact on the A share should not be underestimated if the target is all large blue chips and overseas funds have long-term investment characteristics.

Foreign capital has a strong interest in the A shares entering the "Shanghai Hong Kong Tong" era, and can be seen from the recent trend of QFII. According to the data released by the State Administration of foreign exchange in September 26th, QFII increased by 2 billion 537 million US dollars in September on the basis of positive growth for several months. At present, a total of 256 QFII total investment amount of $62 billion 211 million.

Insiders predict that under the "Shanghai Hong Kong Tong" effect, it is estimated that the size of foreign investors holding A shares will be close to 10% of their free market value at the end of next year.

The Chinese Communist Party, which will be held in October, also raised more expectations for the market in the fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee.

Agencies generally believe that as the main topic of the fourth plenary session, "rule by law" is of great significance to the stock market. From the view of CICC, "governing the country according to law" can reduce the uncertainty of the business environment and reduce the risk premium of Chinese assets.

　　 Fundamentals: structural improvements appear quietly

It is worth noting that the Shanghai stock index has interpreted the "monthly line five plus Yang" while the macroeconomic performance is not satisfactory. Some institutions said that the A share bull market "may need to be separated from the macro economic cycle".

The forecast for the three quarter economic growth is not optimistic. CICC's macro team maintained a three quarter GDP year-on-year growth rate dropped to 7.3% of the forecast, and that there is downside risk. Lian Xin Securities believes that, due to the obvious decline in the three quarter industrial operation "step down", it is expected that GDP will grow to 7% or so in the same quarter.

Li Hualun, chairman and chief investment officer of rosefinch investment, said that considering the long term operation of the economy is still in the "bottom" process of the spanition stage of growth, consumption, investment and production growth have not yet formed a balanced and sustainable coordination relationship. We expect the periodic resonance to trigger the so-called "Daniel market" too optimistic, and do not rule out the short-term adjustment of the stock market.

Nevertheless, under the background of the spanformation of industrial structure, the "speed" and "quality" of economic growth can not be simply drawn.

Data show that in the first half of the year, the net profit and operating income of the third industry grew by 6 percentage points over the second industry, and the average return on net assets was two times higher than that of the latter.

According to statistics, up to now, 987 listed companies that have issued three quarter earnings forecasts, 638 listed companies are preoccupied with 64.64%. Of these, 102 companies increased by more than 100%.

Shenyang Wanguo Securities Research Institute said in the report that the spanition period market After a substantial systemic risk in the first half, the situation gradually improved.