Xu Yiding: Economic Stabilization Is Expected To Provide Support For A Shares.

After the national day, the A share market continued the strength of the pre holiday period, but as the 2330 point to 2620 point was the historically intensive trading area, the market slowed down the pace of increase. In the short term, the Shanghai Composite Index will enter the 2300 to 2400 point platform.

We believe that in the current economic stabilization expectations are strong, reform measures to boost the hearts of the market and all kinds of funds to accelerate the market, the market after oscillation, correction, it is expected to continue to expand space.

If the decline of economic data in the early 7 and August also made people worry about the decline of the three quarter economic growth, the recent steady economic data will make people feel the warmth of the economy.

For example, PMI in September was 51.1%, unchanged from last month, reversing the trend of August.

The production index rose 0.4 percentage points to 53.6% over the previous month, and the export orders index rose 0.2 percentage points to 50.2% in September after a brief fluctuation last month.

Taking into account the three quarter PMI index average of 51.3%, slightly higher than the first half of this year and the same period last year, which may also mean that the three quarter of this year's economic operation is basically stable, and there is no market expectations before.

After entering the four quarter, it is predicted that the force of policy will continue to increase.

Recently, the central bank's real estate credit policy has exceeded market expectations.

The policy has given greater support to the multi stakeholder involved in real estate credit, including local governments, residents, housing enterprises and banks. The central bank has also lifted the loan restriction order for foreigners to buy houses in the past. The loosening of this policy is undoubtedly conducive to stimulating the demand for housing in the central cities. The central bank has also paid special attention to the expansion of the financing of developers, which is conducive to enhancing the financial strength of developers and enhancing their driving force for the development of real estate.

Taking into account the early slowdown in real estate sales and investment growth is the main reason for the economic fluctuations in 7 and August. The accelerated recovery of the real estate market triggered by the deregulation of the real estate credit policy will also help stabilize the fourth quarter of the economy.

The stabilization of the economy has also reversed the pessimistic expectations of the people before, and the measures to further boost market expectations are also being accelerated.

9 the fifth session of the sub committee on deepening reform held at the end of the month revealed the intention of the Central Committee to speed up reform. We should attach great importance to the formulation and implementation of the reform plan, do a good job of detailed investigation and research, solicit opinions and assess the key points. We should strictly control the quality of the reform plan and strictly supervise the reform supervision so as to ensure that the reform has been changed and changed.

The latest "securities investor confidence survey and analysis report September" shows that in September, the investor confidence index increased by 1.3% compared with the same month.

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The valuation sub indices reached the highest level since the index was founded in April 2008.

Investors also enthusiastically entered the market. As of September 26th, the balance of trading and clearing funds reached 11417 billion yuan, which is the first time that the data has exceeded trillion since its regular publication in April 2012.

All this shows that after the stock index has strengthened, the positive wealth effect and incremental capital have formed a spiral of mutual stimulation, which will provide support for further rebound of stock index.

Look around the world

The A share market has a good view here.

We believe that this situation will continue. The rise in July has not ended. After a brief shake up, the A share market will continue its upward trend.

However, the Shanghai Composite Index has to rush over 2330 to 2620 points, which is probably not realistic. It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will rise and fall again and again in the above-mentioned intensive trading areas. The hot spot is still the rotation between the plates.