Chen Jianhao: The Dollar Will Go Higher Again.

Last week, the focus was on the Fed's statement on interest rates in September. It was only seen that the US stock market rebounded 2% due to the statement, and then the last quarter was slumped again. The wave amplitude was bigger and bigger. It had erased all the increase in the year. The market continued to stir up the old question of "raising interest rates or not."

The statement is inconsistent with the fact that the declaration of "low interest rates for a period of time" has not been excluded, reflecting the need for an earlier increase in interest rates. On the other hand, the Fed is also worried that the US economic growth may be dragged down by the uncertain global economic prospect. At present, the US itself has been floating on the surface, but many developed countries are still floating on the seabed and dragging the us back at any time.

So last week, I also pointed out that the strong dollar situation actually benefits Europe and Japan to buy more time to make inflation pick up and stimulate exports. However, the Fed is also concerned about the negative impact of the strong US dollar on exports to the United States, and the worry of strong dollar pressure on inflation, I think the Fed is a bit overcautious.

However, the most contradictory point is that the Fed members still expect us interest rates to rise to 1.375% at the end of the year, that is, the rate hike is still higher than market expectations.

It is important to note that the Federal Reserve is merely exporting the technology to intervene in the US dollar, and the trend of interest has not been destroyed. The Fed continues to do well in its management expectations.

After a sharp sell-off, the 10 year debt interest rate in the US fell back to the level of the beginning of August. It seems that the bond market has not started to raise interest rates in the price.

Whether the Federal Reserve is able to fight this time depends on whether the European economy can revive.

Germany's successive announcement of weaker than expected industrial data at the beginning of last week worried the market that Germany, even the largest economy in the euro area, could not afford to lift the burden of the whole euro zone. However, the euro has picked up rapidly on the 1.25 sides. In my opinion, there is only a rebound in technology driven by the slow friends.

In the past EU summit, Germany and France, the two largest economies in the region, seem to have serious differences in reducing spending tights and increasing spending stimulus. France has shown opposition to spending cuts, hoping to stimulate the economy to reduce the GDP ratio to 3% in 2017.

This

Whether it can be approved by the European Commission will be announced in October 29th. However, with the negative news of politics and economy, the chances of a return to the euro after the rebound are extremely high.

Technically, early last week

The lowest against the US dollar fell to 1.25 sides and rebounded sharply, but rebounded to 1.2790 and no longer available. This week's resistance has moved down to 1.2700-1.2720 again. Last week, the low point has not yet been confirmed that it has bottomed out. On the contrary, technical support is currently in 1.2430-1.2450. If there is a chance to drop to the level of water, there will be a slight rebound in Euro value. It is suggested that 1.2700 euros should be sold, the target is 1.2470, and the corrosion rate will be 1.2790.