Polyester Staple Fiber: Bad Prospects Dominate The Future

Upstream raw materials continue to weaken, cost support collapse, polyester staple fiber price center fell below 9500 yuan / ton, 9000 yuan / ton psychological barrier, traders and downstream cotton mills all buy buy or not to drop mentality, short staple turnover is relatively dull, only in late September, there is a "one-day tour" market, after a short paction volume, the decline slowed down in late 9.

With the increase of inventory pressure, the reduction of production of PET staple factories in September increased. By the end of the month, the average load in the industry was only around 58%, which was a low point in the same period.

Based on the anticipation of the fourth quarter's new capacity production and the bearish mindset of the future market, inventory has become a top priority.

Throughout September, the price of PET staple fiber in Fujian market led the whole country, and the price was endless. The price war was staged ahead of schedule.

After 4 months, Fujian has once again become the lowest price market for PET staple in the whole country.

According to I statistics, as at the end of 9 in 2014, the total capacity of China's primary polyester staple fiber was about 6 million 390 thousand tons. In the first three quarters, only 120 thousand tons of Huahong in Shandong and 20 thousand tons of new capacity of Xiamen Hongxin were added.

In the fourth quarter, the volume of new production capacity of the polyester staple fiber industry is expected to reach 430 thousand tons. Among them, Ningbo Dafa 80 thousand tons of low melting point polyester staple fiber new device has started commissioning in the second half of March. It is expected that qualified products will be available in mid and late 10, and the new capacity of Fujian Jinxing and Shan Li chemical fiber 350 thousand tons of polyester staple fiber will be put into operation in October.

Subject to technical barriers, the current domestic low melting point polyester staple fiber production capacity is less than 200 thousand tons. After the stable operation of Ningbo Dafa new plant, it will have a huge impact on the original supply pattern of low melting point staple fiber.

During the National Day holiday, international oil prices and gold prices fell sharply. The fragile confidence of the commodity market was suppressed, and the confidence in the global economy was insufficient.

From the perspective of polyester industry chain, the load of PTA industry rose to 7 in September. In October, it is expected to maintain 70%~75% level. While the supply is increasing, the pressure of raw materials manufacturers will also be increased, and the new contract of raw materials for polyester manufacturers will be signed in 2015.

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And the downstream cash flow of polyester yarn industry has been effectively improved in September. However, due to its tight capital and expected market expectations, the willingness to purchase large quantities of raw materials is generally not strong and its operational mentality is more cautious.

The stock of staple fiber increased during the National Day holiday. In the first half of October, inventory continued to become a consensus among manufacturers.

From the production situation of the downstream polyester yarn industry, the fourth quarter of the cotton mill regards recycling accounts as the primary task.

The stock of polyester staple is at a low level.

The author believes that the current stock of polyester staple fiber does not have a sharp decline in the short term, nor can it form a strong support for the price.

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The gathering of bad factors and the continued decline of upstream raw materials is a big probability event, which will drive the price of PET staple down.

In addition, the new capacity may be put into operation in October, and the overall mindset of the staple market is empty.

If the cash flow can be maintained after long vacation, and the stock will go smoothly, the average load of polyester staple fiber industry will rise moderately in the second half of the month.