Import And Export Recovery? September Data Decompression Foreign Trade Potential

Data released by the General Administration of Customs show that in September, China's export data increased by 15.3% over the same period last year (US dollar denominated), a record high since March 2013, a 9.4% increase over August and a 14.5% increase over July.

Affected by this, the total value of China's imports and exports increased by 3.3% in the first three quarters.

Exports increased by 5.1% and imports increased by 1.3%.

In this regard, Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman of the General Administration of customs, said that China's foreign trade showed a trend of improvement in the first 3 quarters of this year.

The pressure on foreign trade exports will be further reduced in the next two or three months.

The growth rate of imports and exports in the first, second and third quarters calculated by RMB reached -3.8%, 1.8% and 7.2% respectively.

But there is still a gap between the target of 7.5% and the whole year.

The bank issued a research report that exports will maintain 2 digit growth in the next 3 months, so that the annual export growth rate will be around 6%-6.5%, close to 7.5%.

All the improvement in export situation is related to the better economic situation in the US.

However, as domestic demand remains weak, international commodity prices are at a low level, and major import commodity port stocks remain at a high level, which will also affect import growth.

On the whole, there is little possibility that the import growth rate will continue to rebound.

Hongkong data pull rate

The figures released by the Customs show that in September, the export growth rate reached 15.3%, achieving 213 billion 700 million dollars; imports 182 billion 700 million US dollars, an increase of 7%; the trade surplus was 31 billion US dollars, expanding 1.1 times.

The export figures set a new high in 19 months.

Export figures in the first quarter of this year were extremely low. The growth rate in the 2 and March was -18.1% and -6.6% respectively.

It grew by only 0.9% in April.

5 and June reached 7% and 7.2% respectively.

In July, it reached 14.5%.

August was 9.4%.

In September, it reached a record high of 15.3%.

This figure is beyond the prediction of the organization.

Outside discussion, whether there is capital inflow in the high growth rate, on the one hand is the attraction of the RMB exchange rate rally. On the other hand, the domestic A share market in the past one or two months has attracted a certain amount of capital formation.

"In this case, the export growth in September may be a little water, but not necessarily."

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute, said.

Liu Xuezhi, a bank analyst, agreed.

He thinks that the 2 digit export in September is also expected, but over 15% is too high, and the actual growth rate may not be so high.

"This may be due to the introduction of Shanghai and Hong Kong through the near future, attracting overseas capital into the country, leading to a false trade in exports to Hong Kong."

Liu Xuezhi said.

The main reason is that there are some anomalies in Hongkong in the September figures.

In September, China's growth rate to the United States and the European Union was 10.8% and 14.9% respectively, compared with 11.4% and 12.5% in August.

Relatively stable.

Only the export data for Hongkong vary widely.

The mainland's export growth rate in Hongkong in 7 and August was 13%, -2%, and the export growth rate reached 34% in September, reaching 37 billion 605 million US dollars, up 9 billion 540 million US dollars from the same period last year. It is the highest growth rate in Hong Kong since May 2013, which is 36 percentage points higher than in August this year.

If we exclude export data, we can see that exports grew by 11.98% in September.

In March 2013, the mainland's export growth to Hongkong reached 90%, which was considered to be a virtual trading fund.

Completion of the year's foreign trade target is still arduous.

However, even excluding Hongkong's abnormal factors, China's exports more than 11% are still relatively fast.

Liu Xuezhi believes that this is closely related to the growth of processing trade in western countries.

Zheng Yuesheng pointed out that the US GDP's annual growth rate in the two quarter reached 4.6%, creating a new 10 quarter high.

At the same time, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam and other countries and the rapid economic growth is better than the first quarter, driving the demand for the Chinese market improved significantly.

In September, China's exports increased by 15.1% (RMB), and exports to the European Union, the United States and ASEAN increased by 2.2, 1.9 and 1.5 percentage points respectively.

Since May, the leading index of China's foreign trade has been at a high level for 5 consecutive months.

China's foreign trade export index indicates that the pressure of foreign trade exports will be further reduced in the next two or three months.

However, Zheng Yuesheng also believes that from the three quarter of the situation, to achieve the annual growth target of 7.5% of foreign trade and import and export volume, the task is indeed very arduous.

According to the monthly survey of 3000 enterprises by the General Administration of customs, about 65% of enterprises reflect the continuous increase in production cost.

In the first half of this year, China's textile, clothing and other seven types of labor-intensive products accounted for 0.1, 0.4 and 2.8 percentage points, respectively, of the developed economies in Europe, America and Japan.

Over the same period, the share of similar products in Vietnam increased by 0.2, 0.7 and 1.1 percentage points respectively.

The growth rate of China's traditional labor intensive industries is still slow.

For example, September.

,

The export volume of toys and bags increased by 6.5%, 14.9%, 14.4% and -0.9% respectively (US dollar).

The export growth rate is higher than that of precious metals, color TV, lamps, steel and coke. The export growth rate is 58.2%, 30.5%, 35.3%, 27.3% and 81.5% respectively.

The growth rate of export volume of ships, automobiles and electromechanical products is -13.4%, 2.2% and 1.9% respectively.

It should also be noted that foreign investment in China's manufacturing industry has slowed down in the past.

It shows that in the first 8 months of this year, the actual utilization of foreign capital in China's manufacturing industry dropped by about 15.7%, of which 7 and August fell by 17.8% and 29.1% respectively, which is the 15 consecutive month decline.

Zheng Yuesheng pointed out that nearly half of China's exports were created by foreign investment enterprises. The decline in the actual utilization of foreign capital in China's manufacturing industry will form a medium-term constraint on the export of our country.

At the end of this year or next year, if there are big fluctuations in Africa's economy, these risks need to be on the alert.

"Our enterprises are opening up their exports, and we must make some precautionary arrangements for the relevant commercial risks and political risks."

Mei Xin Yu said.

Liu Xuezhi believes that in September 30th, the Executive Council of the State Council established a positive import policy, and the import trade promotion policy played an important role in the balanced development of trade.

The state calls for vigorously promoting trade facilitation, continuing to encourage imports of advanced technology, equipment, key components and domestic scarce resources, and promoting the construction of import platforms.