The Reform Is Expected To Prompt The Stock Market To Rise.

　　 Stocks have risen too hard.

Economic data deviate from the trend of stock index, and investors do not understand it.

"How many of you are in this market? shares They have gone up well, but they always feel that they are not steadfast in their minds, and do not know why they will rise. Mr. Li, who lives in Chaoyang District, Beijing and Tuanjiehu, is very entangled recently. With the gradual rise of A shares in the second half of the year, 2 of them have been covered for more than 3 years. Large cap stocks There was a rapid rise and he was about to get out of the way.

In the second half of the year, the A share market went out of a strong upward trend. Citic securities data show that from July 1st to October 10th, just 68 trading days, Shanghai Composite Index rose 15.9%, Shenzhen index increased 11.8%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 13.9%, small and medium board index rose 17.6%, gem index rose 10.6%. In the past three quarters, the Shanghai Composite Index has become the global stock market quarterly champion with a 15.4% increase.

The rising market has greatly stimulated the popularity of the market. The confidence index of investors has risen from a low point in May to a high point in more than 6 years. The balance of trading and clearing funds in the stock market has also broken the stock pattern that fluctuated over the past two years in the past 600 billion years. The growth industries such as military industry, environmental protection and new energy, such as steel, coal, nonferrous metals and other cyclical industries, as well as state-owned enterprises reform, land transfer, information security and other theme opportunities, have become the focus of capital market gambling.

"Judging from the current situation, the rise in the current stock market is more like a restorative market after a long decline." Zhang Qun, senior strategist at CITIC Securities, said that the continued rise of the stock market started in the two quarter, and the market risk appetite rose. However, the latter half of the market appeared to deviate from the trend of economic data.

Since April this year, the central and local governments at two levels have issued a batch of micro stimulus policies. From 4 to June, the scale of investment in railways and other infrastructure projects increased, the progress of the payment of financial funds accelerated, the central bank directed to reduce the accuracy and released liquidity through refinancing loans, and a series of regulatory policies made the manufacturing PMI index rise from 50.3 in March to 51.7 in July. The GDP growth rate in the two quarter also increased from 7.4% in the first quarter to 7.5% in July. The elimination of economic stall risk has significantly increased investor enthusiasm for investment in the stock market.

　 Continuous reform and upgrading Investment confidence

Most of the theme investment opportunities highlighted in this year's market are closely related to comprehensive deepening reform.

This year, China's economic growth slowed down, and the macro data in August were slightly lower than expected. The world bank also lowered the growth rate of China's economy from 7.6% to 7.4%. However, all this seems to be unable to keep pace with the upward movement of China's stock market. With the downward pressure on the economy, A shares have gone from obscurity to crowning of the crown, making it difficult for ordinary investors to understand what force has brought about such a big change in the stock market.

"The stock market has its own inherent laws, and can not fully see economic data and statistical indicators." Hu Lifeng, general manager of China Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center, believes that the stock market is more a reflection of investors' expectations for future economic development. Due to the lagging of statistical indicators, statistical indicators based on industrial economy and manufacturing can not reflect the overall picture of China's economy. In particular, many aspects of the service industry and the new economy are not in the list of statistics. From the employment data, the overall economic situation of our country is good this year. We simply use lagging statistical indicators to analyze and judge the stock market is not comprehensive.

From historical experience, stock market ups and downs are not directly proportional to macroeconomic operation. From 2001 to 2011, China's GDP grew by more than 2 times, and the Shanghai composite index was basically the same as it was ten years ago. After the financial crisis, as the birthplace of the United States, the economic recovery was sluggish, and the stock index continued to record high. China's economy maintained a growth rate of over 7%, but the Shanghai composite index remained at a low level.

"The recent rise in the A share market has little to do with the fundamentals of the economy, mainly due to the expected impact of the reform in the fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee and the expected impetus from Shanghai and Hong Kong." Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, believes that in the second half of this year, Shanghai and Hong Kong through, foreign capital inflow, SOE reform, information security and army building have gradually become the dominant factors supporting the stock market, and promoted the continuous soaring market of aerospace and military industries. And since September, more investors have come to expect warming up in the fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee and comprehensively deepening reforms.

"Continuous reform is a good sign for China's long-term economic growth and has enhanced investor confidence." Xu Gao believes that with the advance of comprehensive deepening reform, China's economic transformation and development have also performed well. Although these reform measures have limited effect on short-term economic growth, they will help to boost expectations and enhance confidence, so that they will also have positive effects on the stock market.

In fact, this year's rally has reflected investors' expectations for comprehensive deepening reform and transformation and upgrading. Most prominent investment opportunities such as SOE reform and land transfer are closely related to comprehensive deepening reform. In addition, the current policy calls for enhanced energy conservation and emission reduction and the development of clean energy, which has promoted the sharp rise of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, solar thermal, wind power, nuclear power and biomass energy. The central authorities put forward the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the strategy of "one belt and one road", which also led to the great heat of the theme blocks of A shares in real estate, ports and other related regions. While the fundamentals have brought about continuous improvement, more attention has been paid to whether the stock market can continue to walk. Some of the investors worried about the persistence of the stock market in October.

"Monthly quotations in October will reflect the twists and turns of the characteristics, the callback pressure is still large, the configuration should adhere to the defense first, light warehouse flexible operation." Zhang Qun believes that entering the October, the key events affecting the market began to become diversified. Although the new round of reform and economic transformation has achieved initial success, but the real solution to the problems accumulated over the past 30 years in China's economy and the miscellaneous diseases presented by the "three phase" superposition still need to be maintained. Investors need to be cautious about the current stock market development.

At the same time, the recent sharp fall in European and American stock markets has also created a great pressure on the A share market to continue to rise.

"Now the stock market is not a stock market concept, but the 4 stock market, divided into Shanghai and Shenzhen motherboard, small and medium board, gem, there are new three boards in the future." Hu Lifeng said that with the development of China's stock market, simply judging whether the stock market is going up or down may not be accurate for China's stock market as a whole. Take 2013 as an example, the growth rate of gem is the first to rise globally, and the Shanghai composite index is the first to decline in the world.