Hung Jung: The Key To The Future Of A Shares Lies In Margin Trading.

The biggest bull market on the last round of A shares reached 6124 points. After all, we believe that the most critical logic is that the split share structure reform has promoted the driving force of industrial capital to make high price. The key logic of Daniel market in China's real estate market is that housing reform will abolish welfare housing distribution and allow mortgage loans to buy houses.

History shows that institutional change is the key logic and the main contradiction that spawned the stock market and the Daniel market. Therefore, to find the key logic to decide the future trend of A shares, we should not look for the economic aspects, but should look for the institutional level.

Shanghai Hong Kong Tong is a system innovation, which has far-reaching impact on A shares, but it can not be said that it is the key logic affecting the stock market now and in the future. The most critical logic is the securities and Futures Commission launched the margin trading business, margin trading is similar to real estate mortgage buying. Its impact lies in:

1, financing has greatly increased the purchasing power of buyers. It has brought a steady stream of incremental capital for A shares lacking of capital, and the current financing balance has reached 670 billion.

2. At present, there are only 5 rows. Mortgage balance Over 7 trillion, the growth margin of stock market financing remains huge.

3, the securities broker's current capital leverage is less than 2 times, while the overseas broker's leverage is about 10 times. The time when the securities firms earn the risk free huge interest rate as banks has come. The growth of the securities companies is of great benefit to the development of the stock market, which is a virtuous circle.

4, development Financing business It is very consistent with the requirements of the State Council for invigorated stock funds. The development of capital market is also in line with the strategy of raising the proportion of direct financing in the country.

5, with the strong stock market and the emergence of the earning effect, leverage will gradually enlarge, and the proportion of financing and margin will also change correspondingly with the rising of stock index. This will greatly extend the time span of bull market and produce a bull market similar to that of the United States for 10 years and 20 years.

　　 A shares The main reason why the market has been constrained by funds is that the losses of the participants in the stock market are serious. Therefore, before there is wealth effect, IPO will be launched. If the stock market does not fall, it is not enough to reduce the scale of financing. There must be new capital admission, QFII, RQFII, Shanghai and Hong Kong through...... These are all counted, but they are still unable to support the long term bull market.

Under such circumstances, revitalize the stock is the cleverest and most effective way. The customers who are in the field of memory are originally investors who are optimistic about the stock market. If they have new money in their hands, they will be the most steadfast force in the stock market.

The market suddenly increased by more than 670 billion of the new capital, which can be said to be a great contribution to the strength of the stock market. We can expect that the financing balance may reach trillion in the year, and over 2 trillion next year. Its impact on A shares will be more and more far-reaching. It is obviously a key force to support the strong stock market.

Some people questioned the author's point of view that they thought that the large-scale blow up of the financing disk was fatal to the stock market. This is actually a very wrong understanding. In mature markets, capital leverage is a normal state, so we need to identify the problem with the "new normal" of the stock investment fund; that is to say, the growth of the financing balance is still at the initial stage of development, and it is far from reaching the "new normal", which is just like the initial stage of the public fund development. Even in the new normal, the change of its positions is only about 20%. If the balance of financing reached 2 trillion is the new normal, the change may be in the 1.8-2.2 trillion, and for now, financing will at least give A shares 1 trillion and 130 billion additional capital.