Investment Sentiment Is Now Cold, "Dormant" Waiting For "Winter Sowing".

Affected by factors such as weaker policy expectations, higher market stage growth and lower paction enthusiasm, the A share market sentiment has dropped significantly in recent years, and has led to short-term market movement into a weak pattern.

Considering that the above pressure factors continue to exist, A shares will continue to be weak in the short term.

However, in the case of capital interest rates continue to downlink and reform dividends continue to release, the market is expected to decline in space, and the medium-term market direction will continue to be optimistic.

This means that investors should not lose their optimistic attitude in the short-term prudent hedge. The "dormant period" of the stock market has also slowly opened the layout window for the new round of medium-term market.

According to the data, since October 10th, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell more than 10% of the stock up to 378, this situation has not appeared in the previous adjustment after the current market started.

The market has once again entered a disadvantaged situation.

Although Europe and America

There was a general upward trend last weekend, but the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets again showed a clear adjustment on Monday.

Shanghai and Hong Kong through the decision to postpone the adverse effects of expectations, the Shanghai Composite Index in the morning market directly opened at 2293.57 points low, and then showed the trend of weak shocks throughout the day, the lowest intraday market to 2279.84 points, the stock market closed at 2290.44 points, down 11.84 points, or 0.51%.

At this point, the Shanghai composite index not only went out of the negative form of "five consecutive Yin" on the Japanese K-line chart, but also fell behind the support of the 2300 point integer pass in the first round of the round, and the head has been basically confirmed.

Looking ahead, analysts believe that the weakness of the market will continue at least in the next month.

First of all, the policy anticipation is right.

The supporting role has been greatly weakened.

Many analysts were cautious about the market in October. One of the important reasons is that October is a key node in policy expectations.

In the course of the previous rise, the funds have fully digested the relevant policy expectations, so when these expectations are to be cashed in October, unless the situation is better than expected, the supporting effect of the relevant policies on the market will be significantly weakened.

Once the actual situation is lower than the market expectation, the effect of policy expectation on market operation is likely to turn from positive support stage to negative pressure.

This is the case with the stock market, such as the announcement of the extension of the Shanghai and Hong Kong links, the resuming of the expected economic policy of agricultural land and so on.

Secondly, the market itself needs adjustment.

On the one hand, since the 22 day breakthrough in July this year, the Shanghai Composite Index's largest cumulative increase has reached 16.30%. During the period, there was no significant callback.

After sustained and rapid rise, not only are all technical indicators highly passive, but also the profit taking pressure has accumulated to a fairly high level.

On the other hand, in the process of continuous rising, the enthusiasm of investors has been greatly stimulated, resulting in the rapid completion of the plate rotation. When the "shell resources" and "low price" stocks have been launched substantially, it also means that the short-term market can participate in the target has been greatly reduced.

Finally, the market entered the low trading season.

With the growth of investment power such as insurance and sunshine private placement, investors in the A share market have been increasing in pursuit of absolute returns.

Unlike the institutions that pursue relative returns with public funds, there is a strong desire to make profits in the fourth quarter, whether it is insurance or sunshine private placement, especially when market growth has been higher.

As a result, the enthusiasm of mainstream institutional investors to participate in the market is gradually decreasing, which will directly lead to the downgrade of the risk preference level in the market stage.

Medium-term support strength has not weakened.

Because of the above factors that cause the market to be weakened from strong to weak, it is very difficult to quickly disappear. It is expected that in the short term, especially in the next month, the A share market will probably continue to maintain the pattern of weak shocks and adjustment, and the market opportunities to make money will also become relatively limited.

For investors, it is very important to reduce positions and avoid risks.

However, if we look at the medium-term trend, the strength of supporting the market has not weakened.

On the one hand, the trend of capital interest rate downward has not changed.

In the 6 months of October 27th, the Yangtze River Delta note was posted at a rate of 3.65%, and at the beginning of the year it stood at 6.50%.

This shows that, along with the guidance of the central bank's three easing policies such as the repo rate in the open market, it is not only the interbank market capital interest rate, but also the real economic capital interest rate has declined significantly since the beginning of this year.

For the stock market, the sustained support of capital interest rates is more significant because it can raise the valuation level of the whole market by reducing the expected rate of return.

Looking ahead, the downward trend in capital interest rates is expected to continue.

First, because of the downward growth of the real economy, it will inhibit the demand for funds, which will lead to lower interest rates. The two is that under the current low level of inflation, in order to appropriately hedge the downward pressure on the economy, it is almost a matter of certainty to maintain a loose monetary policy.

On the other hand, the reform dividend is far from over.

Although the recent market expectations of reform have dropped to a certain extent, this does not mean that the release of reform dividends has ended.

In fact, in the process of China's economic pformation, reform is one of the most important safeguards, and the release of relevant policy dividends is just beginning.

From the perspective of the history of the A share market, almost every major reform of the system will trigger a significant bull market without exception.

From this perspective, the reform anticipation will show the long-term characteristics of market support.

Short term "dormant" opportunistic "winter sowing"

Judging from the strategic perspective of recent research institutions, the market judgement of "short air and multiple" has basically reached a consensus.

In the above judgment, analysts for the next month's investment strategy can basically be used "short-term dormant, waiting for the winter broadcast" to describe.

The Shenyang Wanguo research report said that from the withdrawal of insurance funds in September to the decline in the risk of private placement of sunlight in October, and then the gradual weakening of the analyst's selection effect, the market has gradually entered the stage of high volatility. Perhaps the 11 mid and late may be a better performance.

In addition, Shen Wan analysts are relatively optimistic about the 2015 market. With the continuous 3 years of structural bull market, interest in investing in the stock market is gradually revived. Large asset allocation is opening up a positive cycle for the good stock market.

It is suggested that the strategic allocation agencies should do more blue chip leading stocks and white horse growth stocks on the left side. The industry can continue to focus on medicine, environmental protection, nuclear power and so on.

Debon securities also pointed out that the fourth quarter economic downward pressure has not disappeared, the policy remains loose, the medium-term market to maintain upward trend, but short-term need to wait for the opportunity to stabilize.

In terms of industry allocation, we are optimistic about consumer services (education, healthcare, liquor, home textiles and leisure services), emerging industries (Internet technology, new energy vehicles and high-end equipment) and thematic investment (Shanghai Hong Kong Tong and state owned enterprises reform).

Societe Generale Securities further pointed out that short-term market decline is still inertia.

The nature of the adjustment that began in mid October was the technical adjustment of profit taking, but the adjustment could evolve to the strongest decline since May 20th because of the soaring capital market.

Analysts suggest that investors should take the opportunity of "trial and error" to seek opportunities in the stage of declining market risk preference, and seek gold stocks that meet the needs of economic pformation and business models, and look for the leading varieties in the future upward trend.

And investors who are still very heavy positions have lost their opportunities, so it is better to focus on the layout next year.