Under The New Normal Economy, A Shares Are Expected To Reproduce Bull Market.

From a macroeconomic point of view, the worst time of the year has passed, and the fourth quarter economy will improve in the three quarter. The three quarter GDP grew by 7.3% year-on-year, down 0.2% compared with the two quarter. On the one hand, the base was higher in the same period last year. On the other hand, the real estate investment was downhill, while infrastructure investment slowed down the investment in fixed assets. These factors will improve in the fourth quarter.

In the field of infrastructure investment, there will be a number of major projects in the fields of water conservancy, environmental protection and information network. In real estate, the policy of relaxing the purchase and lending limit has been promulgated. The "loan denying house", that is, having a housing, can be handled according to the first set of loans, which is conducive to releasing the previously suppressed demand for improvement.

From the perspective of monetary funds, the central bank will continue to maintain monetary easing. In the past two months, the central bank has released nearly 700 billion SLF to replenish the basic money, maintain the basic monetary easing and provide liquidity to financial institutions. On the capital interest rate, the central bank has been actively guiding interest rates downward through interbank repurchase, so it is very advantageous to the stock market from the perspective of capital.

Our country is now in an economic position. Transformation Period The position of the Politburo in the current economy is the "new normal" economy. With the advance of reform, economic transformation is gradually realized. Macro economy The downside risk will be locked. For the stock market, the overall undervalued state will also be improved.

from A shares Market view, with the advance of economic transformation, stock earnings and valuation will rise. For traditional cyclical industries, the capacity of enterprises will gradually withdraw, one is the government's administrative capacity, the other is the free competition of enterprises. In the process, the listed companies get the cost advantage by brand, technology, channel and scale advantage, and the profit will be much higher than that of the backward small enterprises.

In the process of transformation, the state will energetically foster strategic industries and new industries, seek new economic growth points, and transform relevant enterprises to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises. Investment in strategic industries and emerging industries will continue to strengthen related stocks, such as military industry, chips, UHV, nuclear power, aviation, Internet, information technology and new energy industries. The reform of state-owned enterprises is going ahead this year, and next year is likely to be launched on a large scale. This theme will be a better investment direction in the next year or so.