High Inventory Suppression Difficult To Get Rid Of Cotton Prices Will Fall

In October, according to past practice, new flowers have been listed on a large scale. But because of the implementation of the Cotton Subsidy Policy in Xinjiang this year, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell so that the new year's lint has not yet been listed in large quantities. However, in accordance with the provisions of the direct subsidy rules, the price period is 9~11 months, and it is expected that with the passage of time, the supply of seed cotton will increase. At the same time, as far as known data are concerned, there is no obvious improvement in textile consumption in the lower reaches of the cotton. increase The price is expected to fall.

　　 Textile consumption is still not optimistic.

According to the latest statistics, in September 2014, the added value of textile industry increased by 5.3% over the same period last year, slowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Let's look at the trend of China's textile industry added value in the past three years, which has been on the down line since the beginning of 2012.

According to the General Administration of customs data, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China in 2014 1~9 was 221 billion 930 million US dollars, an increase of 5.92% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 6.03 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

In September 2014, the inventory of cotton industry in textile enterprises continued to decrease, including 477 thousand and 700 tons of cotton in the warehouse and 24 thousand and 900 tons from last month. cotton The stock is 602 thousand and 400 tons, a decrease of 18 thousand and 500 tons from last month. The main reasons for the reduction of storehouse inventory and disposable inventory are: 1. The price of new cotton is low after listing. In the middle of September, there was a market spread. Xinjiang cotton pre sale quotation was 14500 yuan / ton for hand picking cotton, and 14000 yuan / ton for machine picked cotton. 2, as a result of a fall in the import cotton market in mid September, enterprises bought and sold, and the port was also short of high-grade cotton, so enterprises Limited procurement. 3, the number of new flowers in the early stage is small, and the quality is poor, so it is difficult to meet the requirements of textile enterprises. Therefore, enterprises are mostly buying with them and waiting for new flowers to be listed.

　 Domestic and foreign cotton price differential narrowing

Since 2010, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has continued to rise. Until April 1, 2014, its domestic reserve cotton auction bid price dropped from 18000 yuan / ton to 17250 yuan / ton, both inside and outside. Cotton price The difference showed a marked reduction. Thereafter, the spread widened and entered the new year. The focus of the cotton and cotton prices shifted downward obviously, and the price difference between inside and outside cotton was narrowed again, especially the price difference under the sliding tax. According to statistics, as of October 31st, the price difference between home and abroad will be reduced to 838 yuan / ton under the sliding tax, and the price difference will be 3044 yuan / ton under the 1% tariff quota.

It is reported that on the one hand, because of the quota restrictions on cotton imports this year, many Chinese buyers have a serious shortage of quotas. On the other hand, some foreign businessmen have increased the proportion of imported cotton contract margin to 15%~20%, thus making the import of foreign cotton somewhat inhibited and prices showing a weak trend. And domestic cotton prices will continue to be weak in the expectation that domestic and foreign cotton prices will continue to narrow.

　　 High inventory suppression difficult to get rid of

According to US Department of agriculture data, the volume of oversupply in the global cotton market in 2014/2015 has narrowed further than this year, and the supply and demand side has changed to a favorable direction. However, the overall supply situation is still oversupply, with an excess of 1 million 239 thousand tons. But global inventories show a steep upward trend in the past four years. Even after excluding China's inventory data, the end inventory and inventory consumption figures for this year remain high.

China's cotton supply and demand pattern Global It is very similar. The output of 2014/2015 is forecast to be 6 million 641 thousand tons, 490 thousand tons less than the current year, 8 million 274 thousand tons of consumption, 762 thousand tons more than the current year, and 1 million 524 thousand tons of imports, a sharp reduction of 1 million 551 thousand tons compared with this year. China's cotton supply and demand is still a pattern of excess supply, but the surplus has narrowed down from 2 million 694 thousand tonnes this year to a shortage of 109 thousand tons. However, in the new year, China's cotton terminal inventory has been reduced by 120 thousand tons compared with the previous year, but it is still a huge volume of 13 million 533 thousand tons, far exceeding cotton consumption in one year. Based on the data of China's cotton harvest and dumping in recent years, China's cotton reserve stock is estimated at 9 million 376 thousand tons, which is enough to meet the cotton consumption demand of the next year. The suppression of high inventory will continue to restrict the uplink of China's cotton price operation.

To sum up, in 2014, under the premise of policy oriented return to marketization in China's cotton market, although the overall supply and demand pattern improved, the continuous high inventory at the end of the year and the textile consumption of the downstream cotton have not yet improved significantly, and the cotton price in the new year is expected to rise under pressure. The main trend of the 1501 contract of Zheng cotton is still going down.