Ye Tan: Chinese Aunt Has Not Yet Failed.

Chinese aunt bought gold for sniping, and international gold price entered bear market. The US mid-term election results announced the victory of the Republican Party, the US dollar index rose sharply, the stock market was stimulated by the bull, and the S & P 500 hit a record high. Gold prices plummeted, gold fell below the $1150 mark, or more than 1.18%, and gold fell to its lowest level in 4 years. In April 2013, China's aunt grabbed 300 tons of gold, when gold was about 1330 dollars an ounce, and now it is about 1145 dollars an ounce. If it buys at a high level, it will lose 15% or so.

Chinese mothers are only book losses. Most of the gold in their hands is not for short-term speculation, but for family asset allocation, as long as they do not purchase leveraged liabilities, they have no real losses and need time to recover slowly. Just now, Chinese mothers are usually unwilling to be indebted, have a special preference for gold, and are willing to pass gold, especially gold jewelry, to their descendants.

Chinese mothers are not more rational than some investment institutions. Buying US Treasury junk bonds after 2008 will enjoy high profits with the US government. Profit But many people think that this is the behavior of chestnuts in the fire. Buying gold is a safer investment. When the US quantitative easing and the economy started to pick up a bit, the bond prices fell and the stock market rose, and the price of gold fell sharply. Who can see this trend? Don't mention Chinese aunt. Even the American bond king Grosse is capsizing in the Pacific Ocean. Of course, the big financial institutions and Buffett of the United States were successful. They either benefited from the improvement of financial market activity, or benefited from the recovery of the US real economy.

In the short term, the collapse of gold prices is a chain reaction, not a complete loss of financial attributes of gold. In November 5th, for example, the spot price of international spot gold fell by $30 at the start of the session, and refreshed for more than 4 and a half years at $1137.40 / ounce. Because of the good economic data and the victory of the Republican mid-term elections, the excitement of the market led to a fall in gold, triggering procedures to trade short stops. Foreign exchange traders in Asia said that the price of gold in Sanya in the week ended below the support of $1160, triggering more than 1 billion U.S. dollars in the sale of the contract, resulting in a series of gold prices tumbling.

The future risks include Russia. Russia, which has been hit by sanctions and oil prices and rubles, has fallen by three, claiming to sell gold to support liquidity. On November 5th, KseniaYudayeva, deputy governor of the Central Bank of Russia, warned that if sanctions continue, they may be sold if necessary. Gold reserve To provide funding for imports. Since September 2012, Russia has increased its reserves of gold, reaching 1149.8 tons in October this year, a new high since 1993, the fifth largest in the world. Once Russia sells gold, triggers a downward trend and triggers stop losses, gold will continue to decline.

The golden period is quite long. Historically, from 1980 to 2000, it was a gold bear market. During the period, the economy began to rise and fall, but out of the two oil crisis of 70s in the last century, the United States began to make financial innovations and support the market with a large number of financial products. After that, it entered the golden bull market in the ten years, and the highest price was about 1900 dollars per ounce.

Whether or not it is willing to admit that, no matter how many gold exchanges in other countries, gold is mainly controlled by the US dollar index and the traders in the London market. This is something that Chinese mothers can not change. Aunt is not an investor, but an asset allocator, a jewellery consumer. It only absorbs slowly when the price of gold falls below the cost line.

　　 Chinese aunt Companions. The low price of gold promoted the sale of gold and silver coins, and the sale of gold coins and gold bars in the North American and European Mint bureaus increased, especially the small gold bullion favored by retail investors. It is said that sales have reached the highest level since the gold price plunged in April 2013. Germany's Degussa is Europe's largest gold and silver trader, and its gold trading volume is currently three times the normal level. In October, the US Mint sold 67 thousand and 500 ounces of American Eagle Silver, the second highest monthly sales this year. It is wise for these investors to enter the market rather than to stir fry them, but to compare costs and benefits.