APEC Revolutionized The World Economic Cycle System

After the Second World War, Europe became a mess, and the United States made great fortunes with the demand of war, and became the most powerful country in the world in terms of industrialization and wealth accumulation.

To speak ill of it, the United States repeated its position in the first World War in the early World War.

So we see that in the collective movement known as the most burning money, the wealth of the United States has been rapidly accumulated. From the end of the first World War from 1859 to 1918, the total industrial output value of the United States rose from $2 billion to US $840, and gold reserves rose from 59% of the total global reserves to 59%, while the volume of trade increased from 4% to 39.2%.

In World War II, the pattern of industrial explosive growth was extended.

By the end of World War II, the United States was at home.

About 48% of the world's gross domestic product at that time, about half were manufactured by the United States, and trade accounted for about 1/3 of Global trade.

Mainly because the World War II war did not affect the United States, so the manufacturing industry in the United States has been upgraded without passive elimination.

After this war, the United States got into the same predicament as China, which is the overcapacity in the US.

This surplus is probably more than that of China at present, because the main output direction of productivity is "war".

So there are two ways for the United States to resolve this surplus situation.

One is the formation of the spontaneous baby boom brought about by peace, the second is the Marshall plan for European output capacity.

Compared with the then us, China's current overcapacity is equally serious.

China and iron and steel occupy about half of the world's capacity and about 40% of electrolytic aluminum. Take a look at the high-speed rail. The competitive expansion of the north and South cars has led to a single enterprise that can cope with domestic demand and many manufacturing industries.

Perhaps the same background spawned the same move of the two superpowers - infrastructure exports.

As for the whole area, it is a compass for the export of infrastructure.

To the west, the promotion of the Silk Road Economic Belt is directly oriented to the Central Asian countries.

From a market perspective, Central Asian countries can complement each other with China's needs.

From the perspective of local economic structure, Central Asia is generally in the exporting country of resources, metallurgy, mining and so on.

However, from the location of the land, Central Asia is bounded by Russia to the north, the west to the Caspian Sea, the south to the border with Afghanistan and Iran, and the east to the border with Xinjiang, China, where the industrial structure is in conflict or the political situation is unstable. Therefore, China has actually become the downstream market of Central Asia, and exports technology and projects in exchange for resources, which in fact conforms to the bilateral interests of Central Asia and China.

From the point of view of international politics, China has always attached importance to the relations between the central and Western Asian countries. After several generations of construction, China and Central Asian countries have shown a virtuous cycle of political and economic development, and this background has also become one of the keys to the recognition of the Silk Road economic belt.

The southeastern direction is the maritime Silk Road, the main group of China, in fact, the ASEAN countries.

In fact, the deepening of cooperation between China and ASEAN is not just by hand, but after years of accumulation.

At present, China and ASEAN are already the world's largest developing countries FTA, and China has become ASEAN's largest trading partner for four consecutive years.

In particular, after the 97 financial crisis, China has been able to rapidly restructure ASEAN countries from the post crisis crisis with the huge export price of the renminbi not depreciated.

This has already reflected the great prospect of China's leaders and cooperation.

With China's exports of high-speed rail and nuclear power, China is expected to replace Japan as the leader of the Asian industrial chain in the new equipment manufacturing field and the New Asia Pacific economic growth engine.

So as to deepen economic cooperation with ASEAN countries.

Let the relevant regions form a symbiotic relationship with China's economy. In the future, it will be a powerful premise to break the US encirclement network or break through the trade protection measures.

Of course, China is also actively distributing project exports in Europe and Africa.

If the past world economic pattern is made in China, consumption in the US and Europe.

It will be a comprehensive revolution driven by China's infrastructure and service exports.

The Asia Pacific region will become the key platform for China to optimize the small cycle structure under the circumstances of the big cycle of resource country, consumer country and producer country. On this basis, the world economy will be gradually leveraged to form resources in Central Asia, Africa and South America at the core of China's service and project exports. The United States and Europe will focus on brand innovation, and the new manufacturing and economic circulation system in the Asia Pacific and even the whole world.

China's project export and foreign cooperation do have many similarities with the Marshall plan of the year, but this does not mean that China is implementing Marshall 2.

The simplest way of handling the operation is that the Marshall plan is explicitly the United States' aid to Europe, while China is a market-oriented investment operation in Europe.

You know, many wealthy families in Europe during the second world war have pferred their property. The return of such property is actually enough to become the driving force for European resurgence.

European economists in the 70s generally agreed that many European countries had been pferred to the stage of economic growth as early as the arrival of large-scale aid in the United States.

Moreover, some countries that receive less assistance are developing at a faster pace.

Although the Marshall plan has indeed alleviated many difficulties in the process of European reconstruction and played an important role in the recovery of some key sectors, in general, the economic growth after Europe's post-war trough is not very closely related to the Marshall plan.

Therefore, in the modern interpretation of the Marshall plan, there is a suspicion that the US government has made a dishonorable business at a specific time.

In contrast, China's infrastructure export policy is only boosted, and more is built on market-oriented operation mode, just like China's official statement - large-scale infrastructure exports, is the spontaneous behavior of Chinese enterprises.

This kind of market operation mode of Sino foreign cooperation.

Compared with the Marshall plan, fairer and more consistent with the real needs of the cooperative countries.