Jin Yuan Futures (Weekly): Spot Negative Cotton Weak Shocks

Last week, Zheng cotton continued to be weak. The opening price of CF1501 contract was 13545 yuan / ton, the highest price was 13585 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 13290 yuan / ton, the weekly closing price was 13420 yuan / ton, and the week fell 1.40%.

Turnover decreased by 694 thousand to 1 million 68 thousand hands, and positions increased by 1 thousand to 408 thousand hands.

As of last Friday, China's Cotton (13465, 40, 0.30%) price index (CC Index 3128B) reported 14795 yuan / ton, up 9 yuan / ton compared with the previous week.

In November 7th, the national weighted average seed cotton purchase price was 3.06 yuan / kg, and the 3128B grade lint was 13530 yuan / ton.

The supply pressure of Xinjiang's machine picked cotton has gradually emerged, and the purchase price of seed cotton, especially Xinjiang seed cotton, has been decreasing in recent years.

There were 269 cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengshang, a significant increase compared with last week, and 448 effective declarations, with a slight decrease.

The CF1411 contract fell sharply last week due to the increase in warehouse receipts and the drop in spot prices.

The downward trend of cotton yarn prices is more than that, and cotton is still in the middle and long term.

However, there are still differences in the market. Many believe that the price gap between the inside and outside markets is narrowing and the cotton price is decreasing.

This week, USDA announces monthly supply and demand reports.

Technical side, Zheng cotton shock is weak, suggest CF1505 contract empty single hold or partial empty operation, pay attention to below 13000 first line support.

Futures quotations

Table 1 cotton Market Overview

Last week, Zheng cotton continued to be weak. The opening price of CF1501 contract was 13545 yuan / ton, the highest price was 13585 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 13290 yuan / ton, the weekly closing price was 13420 yuan / ton, and the week fell 1.40%.

Turnover decreased by 694 thousand to 1 million 68 thousand hands, and positions increased by 1 thousand to 408 thousand hands.

Two. Spot and downstream markets

Table 2 cotton price fluctuation in one week

Cotton spot prices fell last week. As of last Friday, China's CC Index 3128B reported 14795 yuan / ton, up 9 yuan / ton from the previous week.

Fig. 1 3128B index of cotton in China

Table 3 weekly price changes in the downstream market

The price of cotton yarn and cotton textile raw materials fell last week.

Among them, KC32S quoted 22760 yuan / ton, down 185 yuan / ton compared with the previous week; JC40S quoted 27050 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous week; polyester staple fiber quoted price 8040 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week, 230 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber price 11900 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the previous week.

Data sources: China cotton information network, copper crown Jin Yuan futures.

Fig. 3 price chart of cotton textile raw materials

Three. The American cotton market.

Table 4 changes in US cotton prices

ICE cotton fell 0.31% in December week contract to 62.61 cents / pound.

The Cotlook A index was 69.20 cents / pound, down 0.80 cents / pound from the previous week; the 1% tariff was 10900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 123 yuan / ton compared with the previous week, and a discount tax of 13507 yuan / ton, a decrease of 56 yuan / ton compared with the previous week.

Figure 4 Cotlook A index

ICE cotton futures positions show that as of Tuesday (November 4th) week CFTC position report shows that the ICE cotton futures fund net increase of 4715 to -2899 hands, ICE cotton futures one week position changes more.

Fig. 5 Comparison of ICE cotton futures fund net and ICE cotton index

Four, industry information:

Reference price of cotton purchase in China in November 7th

The average seed cotton purchase price in the mainland is 3.19 yuan / kg, the price of 3128B grade lint is 14012 yuan / ton, the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton is 2.97 yuan / Jin, the 3128B grade lint is 13209 yuan / ton, the national average cotton seed purchase price is 3.06 yuan / Jin, and the 3128B grade lint is 13530 yuan / ton.

US Department of agriculture cotton weekly export sales and shipment report

As of October 30th, the United States sold 2014-15 net exports of cotton and 65000 cotton exports in 200 in 2015-16.

In the week, the United States exported 65000 bales of cotton exports in 2014-15.

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