Financial Point Of View: Next Year'S Economy Can Hold The Bottom Line.

"We are not pessimistic about China's economy in 2015."

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shen Wan, said that the economic growth rate will drop to around 7.2%, and the economy can withstand the core stress test of housing real estate adjustment.

He pointed out that real estate investment in 2015 was further lower than this year, and infrastructure hedging is still a realistic logic.

Real estate investment will come down and hit bottom in 2015.

After the adjustment is completed, the real estate will step into the export track and enter the low speed growth track.

For exports, Li Huiyong said that the global economic growth is expected to be slightly higher than this year, and the export environment will be improved.

However, the export golden period has passed, the Canton Fair data is still in the doldrums, it is expected to remain low recovery in 2015.

For the recent approval of large projects can have an impact, Li Huiyong said, is now at the end of the year, most of the infrastructure projects, even if the current approval, really.

It will also fall in 2015. We judge that one of the aims of frequently approving new projects is to stabilize investment in 2015.

"Next year, the economic growth is expected to be around 7.3%, slightly below this year or basically the same as this year."

Guan Qingyou, vice president of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, thinks that exports and consumption have not changed much, and exports have been slightly better. As a result of the decline in commodity prices represented by international oil prices, China has actually improved its prices.

Conditions are conducive to a slight improvement in China's exports. It is very difficult to invest in real estate and manufacturing industry in the three investments. New changes may take place in the field of infrastructure.

Stressed that for today's economic growth rate, we need not be too pessimistic.

"More than 7% of the growth rate has been squeezed away from the 2003-2008 year's water consumption. From the consumption point of view, a large number of group consumption is compressed. From the investment point of view, a large number of ineffective investments have been squeezed out; as a result of fighting against false trade, the water in the export sector has been squeezed out."

Another analyst pointed out that investment overweight means that the level of decision making by macroeconomic regulation and control has increased the importance of demand management. However, it does not mean that to solve the problem of economic pformation in China, it is necessary to supply management and demand management to make efforts to solve the problem of supply management desalination.