Consumption Downturn Did Not Change Cotton Prices Weak Operation

There's still a week to go.

The market price of direct subsidy will be determined, and then the domestic cotton market will really enter the trend of marketization.

For the late cotton price trend, I believe that the textile consumption market has not yet improved significantly, while the supply of new cotton has gradually increased. It is estimated that short-term cotton prices will also be downhill, and the downward trend depends on the buyers' willingness to pick up orders.

It is understood that many textile enterprises are satisfied with the current futures price, and do not rule out the possibility of purchasing in the near future.

Textile consumption is still not optimistic.

The latest statistics show that in October, the added value of textile industry increased by 6.3% over the same period last year, an increase of 1 percentage points from the previous month.

However, judging from the trend of the textile industry added value in the past three years, the added value of the textile industry is still low.

In October, China's cotton textile industry purchasing managers index (PMI) was 46%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from the previous month. The new order situation of cotton textile enterprises has improved this month, which is also the yarn of textile enterprises in October.

The main reason for the decline in inventory is.

With the passing of the peak season, it is expected that the volume of new orders will be limited.

China's exports in October

26 billion 538 million US dollars, a decrease of 7.05%, which is the two consecutive month of decline.

At present, consumption is not enough, and textile enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishment is not high.

According to the survey data of China cotton information network, as of the end of October, the stock of cotton in the textile enterprises was 482 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 4 thousand and 700 tons from the previous month.

Of the surveyed enterprises, 36% reduced cotton inventories and 44% increased cotton inventories.

In October, the inventory of cotton industry in textile enterprises increased slightly. On the one hand, before the textile mill experienced a blank period of cotton raw materials, most of the enterprises were short of cotton. When the new flower was listed, the new cotton replenishment stock with better quality was selected. On the other hand, in the early stage of the new flower listing, the textile enterprises went to Xinjiang to purchase high-quality new flowers, so as to prevent the quality of the late listed cotton from falling.

Domestic and foreign cotton price differential narrowing

Since 2010, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has continued to be high. Until April 1, 2014, the domestic reserve cotton auction bid price dropped from 18000 yuan / ton to 17250 yuan / ton, and the difference between inside and outside cotton prices showed a significant reduction trend.

Since then, the spread has widened once again. In the new year, the focus of cotton prices shifted downward obviously. At present, the price difference between inside and outside cotton has been narrowed again, especially the price difference under sliding tax.

According to statistics, as of November 26th, the price difference between home and abroad will be reduced to 903 yuan / ton under the sliding tariff, and the price difference will be 3437 yuan / ton under the 1% tariff quota.

The narrowing of the price difference between inside and outside cotton resulted in a marked decline in imported cotton and imported cotton yarn.

Of course, the reduction of imported cotton is also restricted by the quota of cotton imports in China.

However, imports of cotton yarn, which is not subject to quotas, have also dropped significantly this year.

The narrowing of the cotton price difference will enhance the competitiveness of domestic cotton yarn.

At present, the pattern of US cotton continues to be low and concussion, and domestic cotton prices will continue to be weak in the expectation of continued narrowing of domestic and foreign cotton prices.

Corporate pessimism is strong.

Shandong Wei Qiao enterprise has made five naughty cotton prices to the factory, and the price of lint 3128 has dropped to 13000 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton last week.

Xinjiang platform delivery price is currently 14200-14400 yuan / ton, the cost to Shandong and Hebei is 14700-14900 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last week, Xinjiang ginning factory and cotton trader reflect the cold deal.

The crux of all this is still the textile consumption of cotton downstream.

In the late stage, with the promotion of new cotton processing, the supply of cotton will be very sufficient in the short term.

As for the stock of state reserves, it is expected that the state will not easily throw out before the spinning enterprises "no rice pot".

But at present, the market is difficult to find good cotton.

According to Xinjiang enterprises, the recent sale of hand picked cotton in Xinjiang is still relatively smooth and prices are relatively stable.

Moreover, most of the high quality hand picked cotton in most cotton ginning factories have been ordered by mainland enterprises.

Therefore, in fact, the price of the futures market is mainly based on the unit price of machine picked cotton.

To sum up, under the background of the current textile consumption in the lower reaches of the cotton industry, there is still no obvious improvement.

However, under the support of "good cotton is hard to get", there is a limited space for further downward movement.

In addition, we are concerned about the purchasing trend of downstream textile enterprises. After all, Zheng cotton price and spot cotton price show a reverse pattern. When Zheng cotton price is obviously lower than spot price, it is still very attractive for textile enterprises.