Vigilance Against Excessive Speculation In A Shares, Bull Market Needs Quality

　　 Gratifying changes should be affirmed.

This year, Shanghai Composite Index The increase has exceeded 24%. Especially after entering the four quarter, investors expect Shanghai and Hong Kong to start soon, leading the blue chips to return to value and drive the Shanghai Composite Index to rise by more than 11%. The landing of Shanghai and Hong Kong has made it possible for international investors to buy shares in the Shanghai market for the first time. The introduction of overseas funds with long-term investment concept is considered to be an important measure to promote the return of blue chip stocks.

Last Friday, when China's central bank unexpectedly announced the lowering of the benchmark interest rates on RMB loans and deposits, market sentiment was once again ignited. Optimism has spread widely. In the context of the three quarter's economic growth rate reaching a five year low, the interest rate cut marks a more radical easing cycle for the Central Bank of China. China's stock market was stimulated by the first rate cut in two and a half years, and the stock index rose again. Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities both set a new round of rebound this week, the Shanghai stock market rose 5.78% and the Shenzhen stock market rose 6.34%. According to media reports, the total market capitalization of China's stock market has surpassed Japan in November 27th, becoming the second largest stock market in the world.

It should be said that the return of blue chip stocks and the recovery of stock index, the overall matching of the size and status of the stock market and the scale and status of the national economy are some welcome changes in the stock market this year and should be affirmed.

　　 "Excessive speculation" represented by "four fry" should be vigilant.

But at the same time, the phenomenon of "four frying" that exists in the market for a long time (that is, "stir up new", "stir fried small", "stir fried" and "short fried") reappears the trend of "resurgence". To a certain extent, this shows that, after 20 years of development, although the scale of China's stock market has climbed to second place in the world, irrational trading behavior still exists as a typical feature of "four frying" because the market is still dominated by retail investors. In particular, the risk of excessive speculation is likely to be transmitted to large blue chips which are easier to pry the index, and should be sufficiently vigilant.

In the case of speculation, the Shanghai Stock Market issued 32 new shares this year. As of November 27th, the price of new shares increased by 230% over the issue price, rising by an average of 131% over the first day closing price of new shares.

The essence of speculation is the speculation of the concentration of speculative capital, the gambling of capital and even the behavior of gambling. However, in the long run, the value of stocks is ultimately determined by the fundamentals of the company. Speculation has seriously deviated from the basic value of stocks, and the return of stock prices to value after new shares speculation is an inevitable trend and rule. At the same time, speculation does not change the relationship between supply and demand of new shares. The short-term behavior of funds also doomed that the fry writers will frequently transfer their targets. Speculation is only a short-term "drum beating" behavior. After speculation, it must be "chicken feather". Small and medium-sized investors have assumed the main risk of new shares speculation, and are doomed to lose everything.

Since the beginning of this year, only 3 of the 20 stocks in the Shanghai market are among the 180 index stocks. The rest are all small and medium capitalization stocks. In these small and medium capitalization stocks, its profitability and growth are far behind that of large cap stocks, and the performance of nearly 1/3 companies has suffered losses. This shows that the sharp rise in small cap stocks is not based on its profitability and growth, nor because it represents emerging industries, but based on various concepts and themes.

" Stir fry On the other hand, in 2014, the market share of ST shares in A shares was 40 times higher than that in the overseas market, and most of the stock prices in overseas markets were near the book value of the company. International loss companies usually deal with slack, and the average daily turnover of ST companies in China's A share market is up to 1.2% in 2014, highlighting investors' preference for bad companies. China's small and medium-sized investors prefer to buy stocks with poor fundamentals or even ST shares that lose money, and the market anomalies appear to be seriously out of touch with the fundamentals.

In the short term, because the stock market in China is mainly retail investors, they are keen to catch up and sell, and frequently buy and sell stocks in the short term, resulting in the high turnover rate of the stock market. In recent years, with the prevalence of transaction and algorithmic transactions in the US and Europe, the overall turnover rate of the market has been increasing. Even so, compared with the turnover rate in the main securities markets, it is easy to find that under the trading mechanism of T+1, the turnover rate of the main board Market of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange is relatively high compared to the mature foreign securities market or the emerging stock market. Moreover, the turnover rate of the Shenzhen gem market is significantly higher than that of the offshore market. As of November 27, 2014, the average daily turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen's main board market was 2.16% and 1.98% respectively, and the Shenzhen medium and small board and gem market were 3.04% and 4.79% respectively.

To sum up, at present, the stock market has not yet got rid of the characteristics of capital push, and the problems of speculation, drumbeating, and overdraft will still exist in varying degrees. Excessive speculation in the market is likely to undermine the good momentum of steady development and should arouse high vigilance among all parties concerned.

　　 Need a "quality". bull market "

In the process of constant reform of dividend reform and economic transformation and upgrading, there is reason to look forward to the bull market, and there is reason for a bull market. But in comparison with the "bull market" which has risen sharply in the short term, hyped up by themes and funds, no matter economic society or ordinary investors need a "quality bull market". This "quality bull market" should include at least the following characteristics: first, the uplink of the market has solid solid economic foundation, and the index will rise in the process of close and efficient interaction with the real economy. The two is that the market has a long time of sustainability, the overall valuation is balanced, the allocation of resources is generally effective, not overdraft in the future. Three, the investment climate of the stock market is active, orderly, healthy, rational, not fanatical and not irritable. Four, we can create a good market environment for the reform of market mechanism and provide relatively relaxed space.

From the current situation, as the "new normal" of macroeconomic reality and quality is gradually formed, with the real release of the reform dividends, the emergence of the "bull market" has been guaranteed, and investors are invited to cherish the current hard won development momentum of the stock market, guard against the adverse consequences brought by excessive speculation in the market, and work together to maintain the steady and healthy development of the market.