The Strategy Of Exchange Rate Is Blocked And The Economic Base Is Outstanding.

This week, the US dollar index in the foreign exchange market rose further to 89.467 points, the highest since March 2009. It was mainly affected by the non farm payrolls in November, which was better than expected in the weekend. The number of employment increased by 321 thousand, and the US dollar index was refreshed 4 and a half years.

The interval is between 88-89.

Among them, the US dollar to the euro exchange rate is between 1.23-1.24 dollars, the euro even has the low level of 1.22.79 dollar, but finally has quickly returned to 1.2457 US dollars, the exchange rate fluctuation highlights the euro depreciation, but the US dollar depreciation goal is still clear.

The US dollar to the yen exchange rate further increased inertia, the yen devaluation further exceeded 120 yen, or even 121 yen range, the weekly level of 118-120 yen.

The US dollar remained basically stable against the sterling exchange rate of 1.56 US dollars, and the level of US $1.57 was hard to maintain. On Friday, the pound hit a low of 15 months, and the exchange rate was 1.5694 US dollars, the lowest dropping to 1.5569 US dollars.

The US dollar maintains a neutral stance against the Swiss Franc exchange rate. The price range is between 0.96-0.97 franc. There are many uncertainties, including the characteristic environment of the Swiss gold referendum.

The US dollar to the Canadian dollar exchange rate maintained the basic stability of the 1.13 Canadian dollar level, and the further depreciation of the Canadian dollar was still affected by the fall in oil prices. The weekend level rose to the highest level of 1.1475 Canadian dollars.

The US dollar increased further against the Australian dollar, and the Australian dollar fell to US $0.83, and the US $0.84 consolidation was obvious.

The US dollar is adjusted and circuitous against the New Zealand dollar exchange rate between us $0.78-0.77.

The foreign exchange market situation is in a very complex state, and the implementation of technical will is very difficult.

The future market variables will increase, and the choice of exchange rate level will be difficult in the uncertain factors, but it will also break through or pursue their demands by any means.

1, the lack of Euro economy is the main factor.

The decline in the euro's exchange rate this week is not the need for the US dollar strategy.

Especially at the end of the week, Eurostat data showed that the third quarter economic growth in the euro area was confirmed to be 0.2%, with an annual rate of 0.8%, which is consistent with the preliminary data. However, the performance of the euro area data varies widely, especially the differences between the member states are increasing and the instability is prominent.

As a result of low inflation in the euro zone, stimulating consumer spending increases by 0.5%, resulting from a little increase in real income, which seems to be meaningful to economic growth.

But the euro has fallen, and exports are not growing faster than imports. The euro zone's trade slump is a direct drag on economic growth.

In addition, investment spending has declined for second consecutive quarters, and the competitiveness of enterprises is difficult to break through and innovate, and thus has a negative pressure on economic growth.

The fundamentals of the euro area directly affect the choice of monetary policy in the future. The uneven economic data and the performance of various countries make it difficult to implement the euro easing policy.

Schauble, German finance minister, said the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies of the euro area were a source of economic problems rather than a solution.

Expanding monetary and fiscal policies to deal with economic weakness is not the solution, but the cause of economic problems.

The instability of the eurozone's decline indicates the euro risk warning, especially the complexity of price factors.

2, the basic factor of the US dollar is exchange rate puzzle.

The strength of the US dollar exchange rate is the protection of the global expansion of the US economy, especially the economic expansion after the leading edge of the new generation of industrial innovation in the US.

However, the international comparison factor is that the US dollar is difficult to choose, especially the exchange rate is plagued seriously.

The main example is that the US Department of commerce data show that the US trade account deficit narrowed in October, and its reduction was far lower than expected. The decline in crude oil prices failed to offset the jump in imports, while the increase in exports meant that the US economy was being affected. Insufficient global demand would further affect the US economy, and the protection of the US dollar exchange rate was more important.

According to specific data, the US trade deficit in October was US $43 billion 400 million, and it was expected to be US $41 billion 400 million. In September, the deficit of US $43 billion was further revised to US $43 billion 600 million. After excluding inflation, the US trade deficit in October was US $50 billion 840 million.

Level.

In addition, the US economic data are still mixed, the latest employment level is optimistic, but production data fluctuate, such as factory order negative, durable goods and so on. This makes the future.

The pace of interest rate hike has been blocked, and the complexity of the US dollar exchange rate has further increased.

3, the yen's fundamental downturn makes the exchange rate habitual.

This week, the downward trend of the yen exchange rate is very eye-catching. The yen broke through the 120 yen barrier against the US dollar, even showing a new low of 121 yen.

Japan's economic fundamentals are the key, followed by the need for us dollar monetary policy cooperation.

Japanese economy and yen

In a crisscross complex situation, the depreciation of the yen is conducive to the economy, but the impact of excessive depreciation is inevitable.

Data show that Japanese companies, which are bankrupt due to the devaluation of the yen, hit a record high, and the pressure on SMEs in Japan has increased.

According to a survey by imperial Trust Limited, 42 companies that failed in November or the depreciation of Japanese yen were the main reasons.

This year, a total of 301 Japanese companies, which are bankrupt due to the depreciation of the yen, are almost three times that of the same period last year.

In particular, the prices of imported food, metals and building materials have surged, which has backlog the living space of enterprises.

But with the increase in profits of large exporters, the overall number of bankruptcies has declined, and economic polarization has made monetary policy choices more difficult.

To this end, the Japanese Prime Minister's advisor said that Japan needs at least 4 trillion yen economic stimulus plan to help the middle and low income people or to revive Abe economics.

Even taking into account the impact of the increase in consumption tax, Japan's real wages will rise from next summer.

He believes that the current yen is weakening faster than expected, and that the current exchange rate level is favorable for Japan's economy.

The weak yen is also necessary to realize Abe economics.

The complexity of the yen exchange rate depends on control and abstinence.

It is expected that the short-term exchange rate will increase, and the adjustment intention of the combination of oil price and exchange rate factor should be clearer, but the implementation is more difficult, especially the breakthrough of market inertia is more difficult. However, the enhancement of the US dollar's leading power may quickly reverse the inertia movement situation.

It is expected that the depreciation of the US dollar will be the main tenet, and the implementation process and rhythm will follow suit. The adjustment of exchange rate technology and excessive intensity is a foreshadowing and preparation for the reverse operation.

The closing of the last meeting of the Fed will make the exchange rate adjustment uncertain, or even reverse the possibility of expansion.