The Two-Way Fluctuation Of RMB Exchange Rate Has Risen Slightly.

In December 8th, the latest data from the China foreign exchange trading center showed that the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1282, up 91 basis points from the previous trading day, the highest in nearly 9 months.

Since the interest rate cut this year, the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has become more and more obvious. The spot market and the central parity of RMB in the offshore market have been rising and falling, and the marketization of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has deepened.

Since the end of November this year, due to multiple factors such as changes in supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, the spot exchange rate of RMB in offshore and offshore markets has weakened.

For a while, "the renminbi will depreciate sharply", "China needs to exchange currency devaluation and Japanese yen devaluation to launch currency wars" and so on.

The RMB intermediate price rose 91 basis points, making the theory of devaluation of RMB depreciated.

As for the RMB's record high, Wang Youxin, a postdoctoral fellow of the International Finance Research Institute of Bank of China (601988, stock bar), told reporters that the promotion of interest rate liberalization and the support of China's economic fundamentals are the two major factors contributing to the recent rise of the RMB exchange rate.

Wang Youxin believed that, first of all, the reduction of RMB loans and deposit benchmark rates of financial institutions in November 22nd this year did not cause substantial intervention in interest rates.

Although the benchmark lending rate of the financial institutions has been reduced by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6%, the one-year deposit benchmark rate has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75%, but the upper limit of the floating interval of the interest rate of the financial institutions has been adjusted to 1.2 times the 1.1 times of the deposit benchmark interest rate.

As a result, if commercial banks use sufficient floating space, their deposit rates will be almost flat before they are cut.

As a result, spreads in China have not narrowed, and international capital still has the motive to inflow into China.

Second, the affirmation of China's economic fundamentals in the international market has also played a positive role in the RMB exchange rate.

Since the second half of this year, the current government has accurately grasped the macroeconomic policy framework, taking into account the steady growth and structural adjustment, and timely and appropriately adjusted the fine-tuning. From the recent macroeconomic and financial statistics, we can say that we have achieved the desired results and have stabilized the "lower limit" of the economy.

The above views were corroborated by the import and export data released in November by the General Administration of Customs in December 8th.

According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 23 trillion and 950 billion yuan, an increase of 2.2% over the same period last year (the same below).

Among them, exports were 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.4%; imports of 10 trillion and 950 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.4%; trade surplus of 2 trillion and 50 billion yuan, an expansion of 40.4%.

The recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee also released many bright points, such as promoting the balance of imports and exports, introducing foreign investment and foreign investment balance, gradually achieving the basic balance of international payments, reflecting on the policy of emphasizing export or domestic demand only, emphasizing overseas investment and trade balance, and so on.

Go higher.

This conference reflects the policy and reflects the economic growth.

The way of thinking is to absorb excess capacity from overseas investment, ensure short-term economic growth and maintain stability, increase domestic capital stock with trade balance, and raise total factor productivity, thereby enhancing potential growth rate, driving China's economic pformation and upgrading, and achieving medium and long-term growth potential.

Besides,

Exchange rate movements are also affected by multiple factors.

The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is mainly determined by trade, economy, investment and international capital flows between the two countries.

In November, the end of QE in the US led to a sharp rise in the US dollar index, a record high since July 2010.

After the end of QE, the market focus shifted to the point and pace of raising interest rates. Considering that the keynote of the October Conference on interest rates was biased towards hawks than market expectations, it was clear that the Fed's policy stance had not changed significantly. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time in the second half of next year.

However, as China's current account has a long-term surplus and strong foreign exchange reserves, the appreciation of the US dollar has little impact on China's economy.

At the same time, the position of RMB in the global monetary sequence is rising.

The latest report released by the global Interbank Financial Telecommunication Association (SWIFT) shows that the renminbi has become the top 10 largest trading currencies in the world, ranking seventh in terms of foreign exchange turnover.

Generally speaking, in the short term, the trend of RMB appreciation is stronger than the pressure of devaluation. However, the momentum of RMB appreciation in the short term is not strong enough, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is expected to rise slightly in two-way fluctuations.