Central For The First Time To Explain Nine Characteristics Of The New Normal

Steady progress, continuous four years into a general tone, will reasonably determine the GDP growth rate and other targets.

The central economic work conference held in from December 9th to 11th set the general keynote for next year's economic work.

This is the Central Committee's fourth consecutive years of economic work as a "steady progress."

"Steady progress is the realistic need to create a stable macro environment and maintain healthy economic and social development."

Zhao Xijun, vice president of the school of Finance and finance, Renmin University of China, told China news network reporters that "stability" means keeping the economy running smoothly, and "entering" is to further promote structural adjustment and reform and opening up. Among them, improving quality and efficiency is the center of "steady progress".

The conference summed up the economic work in 2014, and pointed out that "the main objectives and tasks of the whole year are expected to be completed well, and the economic operation is in a reasonable interval". The economic growth target for next year will be set in a tone: "rationally determine the main expected goals of economic and social development, maintain the flexibility of inter regional regulation and control", "strive to make speed adjustment without decreasing potential and increasing quantity and quality".

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The train of thought will be clearer and clearer in 2015. It is expected that next year's GDP will not change significantly this year, which will help to guide and stabilize social expectations reasonably.

Zhao Xijun said.

At present, public opinion is almost unanimous that the GDP growth target for next year will be downgraded. The reduction of the growth target will provide more room for comprehensive reform and structural adjustment.

Guan Qingyou, executive director of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, told China news network that next year's next year's goal of reducing economic growth next year is a big probability event. The growth rate may be set as a "7%-7.5%" interval. Next year, the growth rate will be stabilized within this range.

The analysis report of CICC also believes that China will lower its economic growth target next year.

"As the real estate market is shifting from a rapid growth period to a stable growth period, the continued weakening of the external demand continues, and the downturn in demand continues to constrain the economy. The downward adjustment of economic growth does not mean that the pressure for steady growth is decreasing."

The first comprehensive interpretation of the nine "new normal" puts forward eight "more attention".

It is worth noting that this meeting is the first central economic work conference held by President Xi Jinping in May this year after the "new normal".

"Understanding the new normal, adapting to the new normal and leading the new normal are the great logic of China's economic development in the present and future period."

The meeting called for an accurate grasp of the new normal of economic development, and for the first time elaborated the main characteristics of the new normal from the following nine perspectives: consumption demand, investment demand, export and balance of payments, resource and environment constraints.

According to this new exposition, consumption will continue to play a fundamental role in promoting economic development under the new normal. Investment will continue to play a key role in economic development. Exports will continue to play a supporting role in economic development, and innovation must become a new engine for development.

There are many bright points in this exposition, and there are many new expressions and judgments.

For example, "the stage of imitation wave consumption has basically ended, and personalized and diversified consumption has gradually become the mainstream". "High level import and large-scale going out is happening simultaneously", "environmental carrying capacity has reached or near the upper limit", "the marginal effect of comprehensive stimulus policy has obviously decreased".

"These nine characteristics accurately summarize the current trend of economic change under the new normal, which is of great guiding significance for doing well in economic work and how to advance steadily."

Zhao Xijun pointed out that, for example, the "imitation wave consumption" is a new generalization. It refers to the centralized consumption stage that people used to rush up and imitate, and you have my own consumption stage. The end of this stage means that the production and circulation enterprises must pay more attention to the innovation, customization, individuality and quality of heavy products, so as to meet the needs of consumers.

It points out that the conference has put forward nine new normal forms of economic development for the first time, and has profoundly revealed the new features of consumption, industry, population and environment. Among them, the new formulation of "environmental carrying capacity has reached or near the upper limit" implies an unprecedented increase in energy conservation, consumption reduction and environmental protection.

The conference also put forward eight "more attention": to pay more attention to meet the needs of the masses, pay more attention to market and consumer psychological analysis, pay more attention to guiding social expectations, pay more attention to strengthening the protection of property rights and intellectual property rights, pay more attention to giving full play to entrepreneurship, pay more attention to strengthening education and enhance the quality of human capital, pay more attention to the construction of ecological civilization, and pay more attention to scientific and technological progress and comprehensive innovation.

In the eyes of experts, these eight requirements are in line with the characteristics of the new normal. They are the general principles of the new normal economic development.

The conference laid down the five major tasks of next year's economic work: first, to strive to maintain steady economic growth; two, to actively identify new growth points; three, to accelerate the pformation of agricultural development mode; four, to optimize the spatial pattern of economic development; and five, to strengthen the protection and improvement of people's livelihood.

This means that steady growth will become the primary task of next year's economic work.

Zhao Xijun pointed out that this highlights that China's economic operation is still facing many difficulties and challenges, and the pressure of economic downfall is greater. We must stabilize economic growth in order to provide security for social stability and comprehensively deepen reform and opening up. The key to stable growth is to maintain stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies.

The meeting clearly stated that we should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.

Positive fiscal policy should be strengthened, and monetary policy should pay more attention to tightness and moderation.

This is a combination of fiscal and monetary policies that China has implemented for fifth consecutive years.

In the market view, although the tone of the above policy portfolio remains unchanged, its connotation has changed.

China Merchants Securities believes that the low economic downturn and low inflationary pressure will win more room for monetary policy operation. Tight moderation means that monetary policy will be further relaxed when conditions permit. It is expected that there will be a possibility of symmetric interest rate cuts and three to four full scale reductions in 2015.

The meeting also made it clear that we should focus on implementing the three strategies of "one belt and one road", the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and the Yangtze River economic belt, and strive for a good start next year.

Guan Qingyou pointed out that this means that the above three strategic positions are highlighted, and the levels will be much higher than those of other regional plans.

Zhao Xijun believes that the key to promote these three strategies is conducive to optimizing the spatial pattern of economic development. In particular, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and the Politburo of the Central Committee of the CPC have referred to the "one belt and one road" in speeding up the nineteenth collective learning of the free trade area. The promotion of the three strategies will surely expand the strategic space and room for maneuver for China's economic development, and will promote investment in infrastructure and so on, thereby playing a supporting role in the steady growth of the economy.